{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,9]],"date-time":"2026-10-09T08:13:32Z","timestamp":1791533612637,"version":"4.3.4"},"reference-count":76,"publisher":"Springer Science and Business Media LLC","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2019,3,26]],"date-time":"2019-03-26T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1553558400000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2019,3,26]],"date-time":"2019-03-26T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1553558400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["link.springer.com"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Sci Rep"],"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Human mobility is an important driver of geographic spread of infectious pathogens. Detailed information about human movements during outbreaks are, however, difficult to obtain and may not be available during future epidemics. The Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in West Africa between 2014\u201316 demonstrated how quickly pathogens can spread to large urban centers following one cross-species transmission event. Here we describe a flexible transmission model to test the utility of generalised human movement models in estimating EVD cases and spatial spread over the course of the outbreak. A transmission model that includes a general model of human mobility significantly improves prediction of EVD\u2019s incidence compared to models without this component. Human movement plays an important role not only to ignite the epidemic in locations previously disease free, but over the course of the entire epidemic. We also demonstrate important differences between countries in population mixing and the improved prediction attributable to movement metrics. Given their relative rareness, locally derived mobility data are unlikely to exist in advance of future epidemics or pandemics. Our findings show that transmission patterns derived from general human movement models can improve forecasts of spatio-temporal transmission patterns in places where local mobility data is unavailable.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-019-41192-3","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2019,3,26]],"date-time":"2019-03-26T07:03:26Z","timestamp":1553583806000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":118,"title":["Utilizing general human movement models to predict the spread of emerging infectious diseases in resource poor settings"],"prefix":"10.1038","volume":"9","author":[{"given":"M. U. G.","family":"Kraemer","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8916-5570","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"N.","family":"Golding","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"D.","family":"Bisanzio","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0891-4611","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"S.","family":"Bhatt","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"D. M.","family":"Pigott","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5775-8344","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"S. E.","family":"Ray","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"O. J.","family":"Brady","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"J. S.","family":"Brownstein","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9747-8822","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"N. R.","family":"Faria","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"D. A. T.","family":"Cummings","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"O. G.","family":"Pybus","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4367-3849","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"D. L.","family":"Smith","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"A. J.","family":"Tatem","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0611-7272","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"S. I.","family":"Hay","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"suffix":"Jr.","given":"R. C.","family":"Reiner","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2019,3,26]]},"reference":[{"key":"41192_CR1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"330","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(16)30513-8","volume":"17","author":"MUG Kraemer","year":"2017","unstructured":"Kraemer, M. U. G. et al. Spread of yellow fever virus outbreak in Angola and the Democratic Republic of the Congo 2015\u201316: a modelling study. Lancet Infect. Dis. 17, 330\u2013338 (2017).","journal-title":"Lancet Infect. Dis."},{"key":"41192_CR2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"20150468","DOI":"10.1098\/rsif.2015.0468","volume":"12","author":"MUG Kraemer","year":"2015","unstructured":"Kraemer, M. U. G. et al. Big city, small world: density, contact rates, and transmission of dengue across Pakistan. J. R. Soc. Interface 12, 20150468 (2015).","journal-title":"J. R. Soc. Interface"},{"key":"41192_CR3","unstructured":"Uchida, H. & Nelson, A. Agglomeration index: towards a new measure of urban concentration (2008)."},{"key":"41192_CR4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"96","DOI":"10.1038\/nature10856","volume":"484","author":"F Simini","year":"2012","unstructured":"Simini, F., Gonz\u00e1lez, M. C., Maritan, A. & Barab\u00e1si, A.-L. A universal model for mobility and migration patterns. Nature 484, 96\u2013100 (2012).","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"41192_CR5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"333","DOI":"10.1038\/nature25181","volume":"553","author":"DJ Weiss","year":"2018","unstructured":"Weiss, D. J. et al. A global map of travel time to cities to assess inequalities in accessibility in 2015. Nature 553, 333\u2013336 (2018).","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"41192_CR6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Wesolowski, A. et al. Multinational patterns of seasonal asymmetry in human movement influence infectious disease dynamics. Nat. Commun. 8 (2017).","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467-017-02064-4"},{"key":"41192_CR7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"15888","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1408439111","volume":"111","author":"P Deville","year":"2014","unstructured":"Deville, P. et al. Dynamic population mapping using mobile phone data. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 111, 15888\u201393 (2014).","journal-title":"Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA"},{"key":"41192_CR8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1424","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1210554","volume":"334","author":"N Bharti","year":"2011","unstructured":"Bharti, N. et al. Explaining seasonal fluctuations of measles in Niger using nighttime lights imagery. Science 334, 1424\u20137 (2011).","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"41192_CR9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Lessler, J. et al. Estimating potential incidence of MERS CoV associated with Hajj pilgrims to Saudi Arabia, 2014. PLOS Curr. Outbreaks November 2 (2014).","DOI":"10.1371\/currents.outbreaks.c5c9c9abd636164a9b6fd4dbda974369"},{"key":"41192_CR10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s12936-016-1315-5","volume":"15","author":"NW Ruktanonchai","year":"2016","unstructured":"Ruktanonchai, N. W. et al. Census-derived migration data as a tool for informing malaria elimination policy. Malar. J. 15, 273 (2016).","journal-title":"Malar. J."},{"key":"41192_CR11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"6421","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1522305113","volume":"113","author":"F Finger","year":"2016","unstructured":"Finger, F. et al. Mobile phone data highlights the role of mass gatherings in the spreading of cholera outbreaks. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 113, 6421\u20136 (2016).","journal-title":"Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA"},{"key":"41192_CR12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Kraemer, M. U. G. et al. Inferences about spatiotemporal variation in dengue virus transmission are sensitive to assumptions about intra-urban human mobility. EPJ Data Sci. 7 (2018).","DOI":"10.1140\/epjds\/s13688-018-0144-x"},{"key":"41192_CR13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e58802","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0058802","volume":"8","author":"GM Vazquez-Prokopec","year":"2013","unstructured":"Vazquez-Prokopec, G. M. et al. Using GPS technology to quantify human mobility, dynamic contacts and infectious disease dynamics in a resource-poor urban environment. PLoS One 8, e58802 (2013).","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"key":"41192_CR14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"19","DOI":"10.1016\/j.pt.2015.09.006","volume":"32","author":"MUG Kraemer","year":"2016","unstructured":"Kraemer, M. U. G. et al. Progress and challenges in infectious disease cartography. Trends Parasitol. 32, 19\u201329 (2016).","journal-title":"Trends Parasitol."},{"key":"41192_CR15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"9","DOI":"10.1126\/science.346.6208.433-a","volume":"346","author":"ME Halloran","year":"2014","unstructured":"Halloran, M. E. et al. Ebola: Mobility data. Science 346, 9\u201310 (2014).","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"41192_CR16","unstructured":"World Health Organization. Ebola Situation Report. 16 March 2016 (2016)."},{"key":"41192_CR17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1369","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1259657","volume":"345","author":"SK Gire","year":"2014","unstructured":"Gire, S. K. et al. Genomic surveillance elucidates Ebola virus origin and transmission during the 2014 outbreak. Science 345, 1369\u20131372 (2014).","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"41192_CR18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/sdata.2014.42","volume":"1","author":"A Mylne","year":"2014","unstructured":"Mylne, A. et al. A comprehensive database of the geographic spread of past human Ebola outbreaks. Sci. Data 1, 140042 (2014).","journal-title":"Sci. Data"},{"key":"41192_CR19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1545","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMe1411471","volume":"371","author":"JJ Farrar","year":"2014","unstructured":"Farrar, J. J. & Piot, P. The Ebola emergency \u2014 immediate action, ongoing strategy. N. Engl. J. Med. 371, 1545\u20136 (2014).","journal-title":"N. Engl. J. Med."},{"key":"41192_CR20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1381","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMp1502918","volume":"372","author":"B Gates","year":"2015","unstructured":"Gates, B. The next epidemic - lessons from Ebola. N. Engl. J. Med. 372, 1381\u20131384 (2015).","journal-title":"N. Engl. J. Med."},{"key":"41192_CR21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"14366","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1508814112","volume":"112","author":"AJ Kucharski","year":"2015","unstructured":"Kucharski, A. J. et al. Measuring the impact of Ebola control measures in Sierra Leone. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 112, 14366\u201371 (2015).","journal-title":"Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA"},{"key":"41192_CR22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"320","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(14)71075-8","volume":"15","author":"O Faye","year":"2015","unstructured":"Faye, O. et al. Chains of transmission and control of Ebola virus disease in Conakry, Guinea, in 2014: an observational study. Lancet Infect. Dis. 15, 320\u2013326 (2015).","journal-title":"Lancet Infect. Dis."},{"key":"41192_CR23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"401","DOI":"10.1038\/nature22400","volume":"546","author":"ND Grubaugh","year":"2017","unstructured":"Grubaugh, N. D. et al. Genomic epidemiology reveals multiple introductions of Zika virus into the United States. Nature 546, 401\u2013405 (2017).","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"41192_CR24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/srep12172","volume":"5","author":"LD Valdez","year":"2015","unstructured":"Valdez, L. D., Arag\u00e3o R\u00eago, H. H., Stanley, H. E. & Braunstein, L. A. Predicting the extinction of Ebola spreading in Liberia due to mitigation strategies. Sci. Rep. 5, 12172 (2015).","journal-title":"Sci. Rep."},{"key":"41192_CR25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"204","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(14)71074-6","volume":"15","author":"S Merler","year":"2015","unstructured":"Merler, S. et al. Spatiotemporal spread of the 2014 outbreak of Ebola virus disease in Liberia and the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions: A computational modelling analysis. Lancet Infect. Dis. 15, 204\u2013211 (2015).","journal-title":"Lancet Infect. Dis."},{"key":"41192_CR26","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e09186","DOI":"10.7554\/eLife.09186","volume":"4","author":"J Chretien","year":"2016","unstructured":"Chretien, J., Riley, S. & George, D. B. Mathematical modeling of the West Africa Ebola epidemic. Elife 4, e09186 (2016).","journal-title":"Elife"},{"key":"41192_CR27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e1005210","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1005210","volume":"12","author":"JA Backer","year":"2016","unstructured":"Backer, J. A. & Wallinga, J. Spatiotemporal Analysis of the 2014 Ebola Epidemic in West Africa. PLoS Comput. Biol. 12, e1005210 (2016).","journal-title":"PLoS Comput. Biol."},{"key":"41192_CR28","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"65","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jtbi.2017.05.034","volume":"428","author":"JPD Silva","year":"2017","unstructured":"Silva, J. P. D. & Eisenberg, M. C. Modeling spatial invasion of Ebola in West Africa. J. Theor. Biol. 428, 65\u201375 (2017).","journal-title":"J. Theor. Biol."},{"key":"41192_CR29","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Ajelli, M. et al. Spatiotemporal dynamics of the Ebola epidemic in Guinea and implications for vaccination and disease elimination: a computational modeling analysis. BMC Med. 14 (2016).","DOI":"10.1186\/s12916-016-0678-3"},{"key":"41192_CR30","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1098\/rsif.2015.0536","volume":"12","author":"W Yang","year":"2015","unstructured":"Yang, W. et al. Transmission network of the 2014\u20132015 Ebola epidemic in Sierra Leone. J. R. Soc. Interface 12, 1\u20139 (2015).","journal-title":"J. R. Soc. Interface"},{"key":"41192_CR31","first-page":"1","volume":"6736","author":"II Bogoch","year":"2014","unstructured":"Bogoch, I. I. et al. Assessment of the potential for international dissemination of Ebola virus via commercial air travel during the 2014 west African outbreak. Lancet 6736, 1\u20137 (2014).","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"41192_CR32","first-page":"20936","volume":"19","author":"M Poletti","year":"2014","unstructured":"Poletti, M. et al. Assessing the impact of travel restrictions on international spread of the 2014 West African Ebola epidemic. Euro Surveill. 19, 20936 (2014).","journal-title":"Euro Surveill."},{"key":"41192_CR33","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1516","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cell.2015.06.007","volume":"161","author":"DJ Park","year":"2015","unstructured":"Park, D. J. et al. Ebola Virus Epidemiology, Transmission, and Evolution during Seven Months in Sierra Leone. Cell 161, 1516\u20131526 (2015).","journal-title":"Cell"},{"key":"41192_CR34","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"659","DOI":"10.1016\/j.chom.2015.11.008","volume":"18","author":"JT Ladner","year":"2015","unstructured":"Ladner, J. T. et al. Evolution and Spread of Ebola Virus in Liberia, 2014-2015. Cell Host Microbe 18, 659\u2013669 (2015).","journal-title":"Cell Host Microbe"},{"key":"41192_CR35","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"97","DOI":"10.1038\/nature14594","volume":"524","author":"MW Carroll","year":"2015","unstructured":"Carroll, M. W. et al. Temporal and spatial analysis of the 2014\u20132015 Ebola virus outbreak in West Africa. Nature 524, 97\u2013101 (2015).","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"41192_CR36","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","unstructured":"Fang, L. et al. Transmission dynamics of Ebola virus disease and intervention effectiveness in Sierra Leone. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA PNAS Early Edition, https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1073\/pnas.1518587113 (2016).","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1518587113"},{"key":"41192_CR37","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1189","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(14)70995-8","volume":"14","author":"JA Lewnard","year":"2014","unstructured":"Lewnard, J. A. et al. Dynamics and control of Ebola virus transmission in Montserrado, Liberia: a mathematical modelling analysis. Lancet Infect. Dis. 14, 1189\u20131195 (2014).","journal-title":"Lancet Infect. Dis."},{"key":"41192_CR38","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"160294","DOI":"10.1098\/rsos.160294","volume":"3","author":"AM Kramer","year":"2016","unstructured":"Kramer, A. M. et al. Spatial spread of the West Africa Ebola epidemic. R. Soc. Open Sci. 3, 160294 (2016).","journal-title":"R. Soc. Open Sci."},{"key":"41192_CR39","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"309","DOI":"10.1038\/nature22040","volume":"544","author":"G Dudas","year":"2017","unstructured":"Dudas, G. et al. Virus genomes reveal factors that spread and sustained the Ebola epidemic. Nature 544, 309\u2013315 (2017).","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"41192_CR40","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"20140268","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2014.0268","volume":"281","author":"JM Read","year":"2014","unstructured":"Read, J. M. et al. China social mixing patterns in rural and urban areas of southern China. Proc. R. Soc. B 281, 20140268 (2014).","journal-title":"Proc. R. Soc. B"},{"key":"41192_CR41","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e1004267","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1004267","volume":"11","author":"A Wesolowski","year":"2015","unstructured":"Wesolowski, A., O\u2019Meara, W. P., Eagle, N., Tatem, A. J. & Buckee, C. O. Evaluating Spatial Interaction Models for Regional Mobility in Sub-Saharan Africa. PLOS Comput. Biol. 11, e1004267 (2015).","journal-title":"PLOS Comput. Biol."},{"key":"41192_CR42","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMoa1411100","author":"WHO Ebola Response Team","year":"2014","unstructured":"WHO Ebola Response Team. Ebola Virus Disease in West Africa - The First 9 Months of the Epidemic and Forward Projections. N. Engl. J. Med. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1056\/NEJMoa1411100 (2014).","journal-title":"N. Engl. J. Med"},{"key":"41192_CR43","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Wesolowski, A. et al. Commentary: Containing the Ebola outbreak \u2013 the potential and challenge of mobile network data. PLOS Curr. Outbreaks Sep 29 (2014).","DOI":"10.1371\/currents.outbreaks.0177e7fcf52217b8b634376e2f3efc5e"},{"key":"41192_CR44","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1337","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1245200","volume":"342","author":"D Brockmann","year":"2013","unstructured":"Brockmann, D. & Helbing, D. The hidden geometry of complex, network-driven contagion phenomena. Science 342, 1337\u201342 (2013).","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"41192_CR45","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"207","DOI":"10.1007\/s12080-014-0245-5","volume":"8","author":"E Jongejans","year":"2015","unstructured":"Jongejans, E. et al. A unifying gravity framework for dispersal. Theor. Ecol. 8, 207\u2013223 (2015).","journal-title":"Theor. Ecol."},{"key":"41192_CR46","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"21484","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.0906910106","volume":"106","author":"D Balcan","year":"2009","unstructured":"Balcan, D., Colizza, V., Gonc, B. & Hu, H. Multiscale mobility networks and the spatial spreading of infectious diseases. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 106, 21484\u201389 (2009).","journal-title":"Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA"},{"key":"41192_CR47","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"267","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1223467","volume":"338","author":"A Wesolowski","year":"2012","unstructured":"Wesolowski, A. et al. Quantifying the impact of human mobility on malaria. Science 338, 267\u201370 (2012).","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"41192_CR48","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e1003716","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1003716","volume":"10","author":"M Tizzoni","year":"2014","unstructured":"Tizzoni, M. et al. On the use of human mobility proxies for modeling epidemics. PLoS Comput. Biol. 10, e1003716 (2014).","journal-title":"PLoS Comput. Biol."},{"key":"41192_CR49","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e60069","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0060069","volume":"8","author":"F Simini","year":"2013","unstructured":"Simini, F., Maritan, A. & N\u00e9da, Z. Human mobility in a continuum approach. PLoS One 8, e60069 (2013).","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"key":"41192_CR50","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2033","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1108438109","volume":"109","author":"RC Reiner","year":"2012","unstructured":"Reiner, R. C. et al. Highly localized sensitivity to climate forcing drives endemic cholera in a megacity. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 109, 2033\u20136 (2012).","journal-title":"Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA"},{"key":"41192_CR51","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"20140642","DOI":"10.1098\/rsif.2014.0642","volume":"11","author":"TA Perkins","year":"2014","unstructured":"Perkins, T. A. et al. Theory and data for simulating fine-scale human movement in an urban environment. J. R. Soc. Interface 11, 20140642 (2014).","journal-title":"J. R. Soc. Interface"},{"key":"41192_CR52","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","unstructured":"Nocedal, J. & Wright, S. J. Numerical Optimization, https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5194\/bgd-11-12733-2014 (Springer, 1999).","DOI":"10.5194\/bgd-11-12733-2014"},{"key":"41192_CR53","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s12916-015-0348-x","volume":"13","author":"MRT Nunes","year":"2015","unstructured":"Nunes, M. R. T. et al. Emergence and potential for spread of Chikungunya virus in Brazil. BMC Med. 13, 102 (2015).","journal-title":"BMC Med."},{"key":"41192_CR54","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/sdata.2016.66","volume":"3","author":"A Sorichetta","year":"2016","unstructured":"Sorichetta, A. et al. Mapping internal connectivity through human migration in malaria endemic countries. Sci. Data 3, 160066 (2016).","journal-title":"Sci. Data"},{"key":"41192_CR55","unstructured":"WorldPop project. WorldPop. Available at: http:\/\/worldpop.org.uk\/."},{"key":"41192_CR56","unstructured":"Golding, N., Schofield, A. & Kraemer, M. U. G. Movement: Functions for the analysis of movement data in disease modelling and mapping. R Packag. version 0.2 (2015)."},{"key":"41192_CR57","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1073","DOI":"10.1126\/science.aac4420","volume":"350","author":"J Blumenstock","year":"2015","unstructured":"Blumenstock, J., Cadamuro, G. & On, R. Predicting poverty and wealth from mobile phone metadata. Science 350, 1073\u201376 (2015).","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"41192_CR58","unstructured":"Hastie, T. J. & Tibshirani, R. J. Generalized additive models. (CRC Press, 1990)."},{"key":"41192_CR59","first-page":"187","volume":"49","author":"BF Finkenst\u00e4dt","year":"2000","unstructured":"Finkenst\u00e4dt, B. F. & Grenfell, B. T. Time series modelling of childhood diseases: a dynamical systems approach. Appl. Stat. 49, 187\u2013205 (2000).","journal-title":"Appl. Stat."},{"key":"41192_CR60","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"193","DOI":"10.1093\/aje\/kwf062","volume":"156","author":"F Dominici","year":"2002","unstructured":"Dominici, F., McDermott, A., Zeger, S. L. & Samet, J. M. On the use of generalized additive models in time-series studies of air pollution and health. Am. J. Epidemiol. 156, 193\u2013203 (2002).","journal-title":"Am. J. Epidemiol."},{"key":"41192_CR61","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"3","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1467-9868.2010.00749.x","volume":"73","author":"SN Wood","year":"2011","unstructured":"Wood, S. N. Fast stable restricted maximum likelihood and marginal likelihood estimation of semiparametric generalized linear models. J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. B Stat. Methodol. 73, 3\u201336 (2011).","journal-title":"J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. B Stat. Methodol."},{"key":"41192_CR62","unstructured":"de Montjoye, Y.-A., Smoreda, Z., Trinquart, R., Ziemlicki, C. & Blondel, V. D. D4D-Senegal: The Second Mobile Phone Data for Development Challenge. arXiv arXiv: 1407.4885v2 (2014)."},{"key":"41192_CR63","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","unstructured":"Kraemer, M. U. G. et al. Reconstruction and prediction of viral disease epidemics. Epidemiol. Infect. 1\u20137, https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1017\/S0950268818002881 (2018).","DOI":"10.1017\/S0950268818002881"},{"key":"41192_CR64","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"6306","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1011250108","volume":"108","author":"EP Fenichel","year":"2011","unstructured":"Fenichel, E. P. et al. Adaptive human behavior in epidemiological models. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 108, 6306\u201311 (2011).","journal-title":"Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA"},{"key":"41192_CR65","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"492","DOI":"10.1038\/515492a","volume":"515","author":"C Rivers","year":"2014","unstructured":"Rivers, C. Ebola: the power of behaviour change. Nature 515, 492\u2013492 (2014).","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"41192_CR66","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"6872","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.0810762106","volume":"106","author":"S Funk","year":"2009","unstructured":"Funk, S., Gilad, E., Watkins, C. & Jansen, Vaa The spread of awareness and its impact on epidemic outbreaks. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 106, 6872\u20137 (2009).","journal-title":"Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA"},{"key":"41192_CR67","unstructured":"Rambaut, A. Phylogeography of 2014\u20132015 Ebola virus epidemic. virological.org Available at, http:\/\/virological.org\/t\/phylogeography-of-2014-2015-ebola-virus-epidemic\/199, (Accessed: 15th February 2016)."},{"key":"41192_CR68","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"383","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tim.2015.04.007","volume":"23","author":"L du Plessis","year":"2015","unstructured":"du Plessis, L. & Stadler, T. Getting to the root of epidemic spread with phylodynamic analysis of genomic data. Trends Microbiol. 23, 383\u2013386 (2015).","journal-title":"Trends Microbiol."},{"key":"41192_CR69","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s13059-015-0726-x","volume":"16","author":"J Gardy","year":"2015","unstructured":"Gardy, J., Loman, N. J. & Rambaut, A. Real-time digital pathogen surveillance \u2014 the time is now. Genome Biol. 16, 155 (2015).","journal-title":"Genome Biol."},{"key":"41192_CR70","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"345","DOI":"10.1126\/science.aaf5036","volume":"352","author":"NR Faria","year":"2016","unstructured":"Faria, N. R. et al. Zika virus in the Americas: Early epidemiological and genetic findings. Science 352, 345\u2013349 (2016).","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"41192_CR71","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"327","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1090727","volume":"303","author":"BT Grenfell","year":"2004","unstructured":"Grenfell, B. T. et al. Unifying the epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of pathogens. Science 303, 327\u201332 (2004).","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"41192_CR72","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"20142878","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2014.2878","volume":"282","author":"OG Pybus","year":"2015","unstructured":"Pybus, O. G., Tatem, A. J. & Lemey, P. Virus evolution and transmission in an ever more connected world. Proc. R. Soc. B Biol. Sci. 282, 20142878 (2015).","journal-title":"Proc. R. Soc. B Biol. Sci."},{"key":"41192_CR73","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"815","DOI":"10.1126\/science.aad8521","volume":"351","author":"J Currie","year":"2016","unstructured":"Currie, J., Grenfell, B. & Farrar, J. Beyond Ebola. Science 351, 815\u201316 (2016).","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"41192_CR74","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"366","DOI":"10.1093\/trstmh\/trv024","volume":"109","author":"DM Pigott","year":"2015","unstructured":"Pigott, D. M. et al. Mapping the zoonotic niche of Marburg virus disease in Africa. Trans. R. Soc. Trop. Med. Hyg. 109, 366\u2013378 (2015).","journal-title":"Trans. R. Soc. Trop. Med. Hyg."},{"key":"41192_CR75","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"483","DOI":"10.1093\/trstmh\/trv047","volume":"109","author":"AQN Mylne","year":"2015","unstructured":"Mylne, A. Q. N. et al. Mapping the zoonotic niche of Lassa fever in Africa. Trans. R. Soc. Trop. Med. Hyg. 109, 483\u2013492 (2015).","journal-title":"Trans. R. Soc. Trop. Med. Hyg."},{"key":"41192_CR76","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e04395","DOI":"10.7554\/eLife.04395","volume":"3","author":"DM Pigott","year":"2014","unstructured":"Pigott, D. M. et al. Mapping the zoonotic niche of Ebola virus disease in Africa. Elife 3, e04395 (2014).","journal-title":"Elife"}],"container-title":["Scientific Reports"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-019-41192-3.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-019-41192-3","content-type":"text\/html","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-019-41192-3.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2022,12,17]],"date-time":"2022-12-17T03:04:11Z","timestamp":1671246251000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-019-41192-3"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2019,3,26]]},"references-count":76,"journal-issue":{"issue":"1","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2019,12]]}},"alternative-id":["41192"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41598-019-41192-3","relation":{},"ISSN":["2045-2322"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2045-2322","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2019,3,26]]},"assertion":[{"value":"27 February 2018","order":1,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"3 March 2019","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"26 March 2019","order":3,"name":"first_online","label":"First Online","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"The authors declare no competing interests.","order":1,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Competing Interests"}}],"article-number":"5151"}}