{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,25]],"date-time":"2026-01-25T23:43:40Z","timestamp":1769384620779,"version":"3.49.0"},"reference-count":23,"publisher":"Springer Science and Business Media LLC","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2019,5,8]],"date-time":"2019-05-08T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1557273600000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2019,5,8]],"date-time":"2019-05-08T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1557273600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["link.springer.com"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Sci Rep"],"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:p>The prediction of arrhythmia recurrences after catheter ablation of atrial fibrillation (AF) remains challenging. The aim of current analysis was to investigate the time-dependent prediction of arrhythmia recurrences after AF catheter ablation during long-term follow-up. The study included 879 patients (61\u2009\u00b1\u200910 years; 64% males; 39% persistent AF) undergoing first AF catheter ablation. Rhythm outcomes were documented using 7-days Holter monitoring. The APPLE score (Age, Persistent AF, imPaired eGFR, Left atrium (LA), EF) was calculated at baseline, while MB-LATER score (Male gender, Bundle branch block, LA, AF Type, Early Recurrences) 3 months after ablation. The median follow-up time was 37 months [95%CI 35;39]. ERAF and LRAF occurred in 45% and 64%, respectively. On multivariable analysis, ERAF (HR 2.095, 95%CI 1.762\u20132.490, p\u2009&lt;\u20090.001) was strongly associated with LRAF. The APPLE (HR 1.385, 95%CI 1.276\u20131.505, p\u2009&lt;\u20090.001) and MB-LATER (HR 1.326, 95%CI 1.239\u20131.419, p\u2009&lt;\u20090.001) scores significantly predicted LRAF during follow-up. On the ROC analysis, APPLE (AUC 0.640, 95%CI 0.602\u20130.677, p\u2009&lt;\u20090.001) and MB-LATER (AUC 0.654, 95%CI 0.616\u20130.691, p\u2009&lt;\u20090.001) demonstrated moderate prediction. Summarizing, ERAF was the strongest predictor for LRAF in time-dependent manner. The APPLE and MB-LATER scores demonstrated moderate prediction of arrhythmia recurrences during long term follow-up.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-019-43644-2","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2019,5,9]],"date-time":"2019-05-09T15:35:48Z","timestamp":1557416148000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":17,"title":["Time-dependent prediction of arrhythmia recurrences during long-term follow-up in patients undergoing catheter ablation of atrial fibrillation: The Leipzig Heart Center AF Ablation Registry"],"prefix":"10.1038","volume":"9","author":[{"given":"Jelena","family":"Kornej","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0606-9442","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Katja","family":"Schumacher","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Samira","family":"Zeynalova","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Philipp","family":"Sommer","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Arash","family":"Arya","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Manuela","family":"Wei\u00df","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Christopher","family":"Piorkowski","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Daniela","family":"Husser","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Andreas","family":"Bollmann","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Gregory Y. H.","family":"Lip","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Gerhard","family":"Hindricks","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2019,5,8]]},"reference":[{"key":"43644_CR1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"32","DOI":"10.1161\/CIRCEP.109.859116","volume":"3","author":"R Cappato","year":"2010","unstructured":"Cappato, R. et al. Updated worldwide survey on the methods, efficacy, and safety of catheter ablation for human atrial fibrillation. Circulation. Arrhythmia and electrophysiology 3, 32\u201338 (2010).","journal-title":"Circulation. Arrhythmia and electrophysiology"},{"key":"43644_CR2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"659","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJM199809033391003","volume":"339","author":"M Ha\u00efssaguerre","year":"1998","unstructured":"Ha\u00efssaguerre, M. et al. Spontaneous initiation of atrial fibrillation by ectopic beats originating in the pulmonary veins. The New England journal of medicine. 339, 659\u2013666 (1998).","journal-title":"The New England journal of medicine."},{"key":"43644_CR3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e004549","DOI":"10.1161\/JAHA.112.004549","volume":"2","author":"AN Ganesan","year":"2013","unstructured":"Ganesan, A. N. et al. Long-term outcomes of catheter ablation of atrial fibrillation: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Journal of the American Heart Association. 2, e004549, https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1161\/JAHA.112.004549 (2013).","journal-title":"Journal of the American Heart Association."},{"key":"43644_CR4","first-page":"48","volume":"98","author":"RJ Hunter","year":"2012","unstructured":"Hunter, R. J. et al. Maintenance of sinus rhythm with an ablation strategy in patients with atrial fibrillation is associated with a lower risk of stroke and death. Heart (British Cardiac Society). 98, 48\u201353 (2012).","journal-title":"Heart (British Cardiac Society)."},{"key":"43644_CR5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1609","DOI":"10.1093\/europace\/euw295","volume":"18","author":"P Kirchhof","year":"2016","unstructured":"Kirchhof, P. et al. 2016 ESC Guidelines for the management of atrial fibrillation developed in collaboration with EACTS. Europace: European pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac electrophysiology: journal of the working groups on cardiac pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac cellular electrophysiology of the European Society of Cardiology. 18, 1609\u20131678 (2016).","journal-title":"Europace: European pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac electrophysiology: journal of the working groups on cardiac pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac cellular electrophysiology of the European Society of Cardiology."},{"key":"43644_CR6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"201","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijcard.2013.08.097","volume":"169","author":"U Canpolat","year":"2013","unstructured":"Canpolat, U. et al. A proposal for a new scoring system in the prediction of catheter ablation outcomes: promising results from the Turkish Cryoablation Registry. International journal of cardiology. 169, 201\u2013206 (2013).","journal-title":"International journal of cardiology."},{"key":"43644_CR7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1282","DOI":"10.1016\/j.hrthm.2010.05.010","volume":"7","author":"DH Lau","year":"2010","unstructured":"Lau, D. H. et al. Hypertension and atrial fibrillation: evidence of progressive atrial remodeling with electrostructural correlate in a conscious chronically instrumented ovine model. Heart rhythm. 7, 1282\u20131290 (2010).","journal-title":"Heart rhythm."},{"key":"43644_CR8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"202","DOI":"10.1093\/europace\/eut210","volume":"16","author":"KP Letsas","year":"2014","unstructured":"Letsas, K. P. et al. CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores as predictors of left atrial ablation outcomes for paroxysmal atrial fibrillation. Europace: European pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac electrophysiology: journal of the working groups on cardiac pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac cellular electrophysiology of the European Society of Cardiology. 16, 202\u2013207 (2014).","journal-title":"Europace: European pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac electrophysiology: journal of the working groups on cardiac pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac cellular electrophysiology of the European Society of Cardiology."},{"key":"43644_CR9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"f428","DOI":"10.1093\/europace\/eux265","volume":"20","author":"J Mesquita","year":"2018","unstructured":"Mesquita, J. et al. Development and validation of a risk score for predicting atrial fibrillation recurrence after a first catheter ablation procedure - ATLAS score. Europace: European pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac electrophysiology: journal of the working groups on cardiac pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac cellular electrophysiology of the European Society of Cardiology. 20, f428\u2013f435 (2018).","journal-title":"Europace: European pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac electrophysiology: journal of the working groups on cardiac pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac cellular electrophysiology of the European Society of Cardiology."},{"key":"43644_CR10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2119","DOI":"10.1016\/j.hrthm.2016.07.018","volume":"13","author":"RA Winkle","year":"2016","unstructured":"Winkle, R. A. et al. Predicting atrial fibrillation ablation outcome: The CAAP-AF score. Heart rhythm. 13, 2119\u20132125 (2016).","journal-title":"Heart rhythm."},{"key":"43644_CR11","first-page":"2271","volume":"77","author":"M W\u00f3jcik","year":"2013","unstructured":"W\u00f3jcik, M. et al. Repeated catheter ablation of atrial fibrillation: how to predict outcome? Circulation journal: official journal of the Japanese Circulation. Society. 77, 2271\u20132279 (2013).","journal-title":"Society."},{"key":"43644_CR12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1002","DOI":"10.1093\/ehjci\/jey060","volume":"19","author":"F Bisbal","year":"2018","unstructured":"Bisbal, F. et al. Left atrial geometry and outcome of atrial fibrillation ablation: results from the multicentre LAGO-AF study. European heart journal cardiovascular Imaging. 19, 1002\u20131009 (2018).","journal-title":"European heart journal cardiovascular Imaging."},{"issue":"2","key":"43644_CR13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"320","DOI":"10.1002\/clc.23139","volume":"42","author":"F Kosich","year":"2019","unstructured":"Kosich, F. et al. Clinical scores used for the prediction of negative events in patients undergoing catheter ablation for atrial fibrillation. Clin Cardiol. 42(2), 320\u2013329 (2019).","journal-title":"Clin Cardiol."},{"key":"43644_CR14","first-page":"871","volume":"104","author":"J Kornej","year":"2015","unstructured":"Kornej, J. et al. The APPLE score: a novel and simple score for the prediction of rhythm outcomes after catheter ablation of atrial fibrillation. Clinical research in cardiology: official journal of the German Cardiac. Society. 104, 871\u2013876 (2015).","journal-title":"Society."},{"key":"43644_CR15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/srep40828","volume":"7","author":"N Mujovi\u0107","year":"2017","unstructured":"Mujovi\u0107, N. et al. Prediction of very late arrhythmia recurrence after radiofrequency catheter ablation of atrial fibrillation: The MB-LATER clinical score. Scientific reports. 7, 40828, https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/srep40828 (2017).","journal-title":"Scientific reports."},{"key":"43644_CR16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-018-31133-x","volume":"8","author":"J Kornej","year":"2018","unstructured":"Kornej, J. et al. Prediction of electro-anatomical substrate and arrhythmia recurrences using APPLE, DR-FLASH and MB-LATER scores in patients with atrial fibrillation undergoing catheter ablation. Scientific reports. 8, 12686, https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41598-018-31133-x (2018).","journal-title":"Scientific reports."},{"key":"43644_CR17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e0169933","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0169933","volume":"12","author":"J Kornej","year":"2017","unstructured":"Kornej, J. et al. The APPLE Score - A Novel Score for the Prediction of Rhythm Outcomes after Repeat Catheter Ablation of Atrial Fibrillation. PloS one. 12, e0169933, https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1371\/journal.pone.0169933 (2017).","journal-title":"PloS one."},{"key":"43644_CR18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1984","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijcard.2012.05.008","volume":"167","author":"F D\u2019Ascenzo","year":"2013","unstructured":"D\u2019Ascenzo, F. et al. Which are the most reliable predictors of recurrence of atrial fibrillation after transcatheter ablation?: a meta-analysis. International journal of cardiology. 167, 1984\u20131989 (2013).","journal-title":"International journal of cardiology."},{"key":"43644_CR19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"281","DOI":"10.1161\/CIRCEP.113.001182","volume":"7","author":"J Kornej","year":"2014","unstructured":"Kornej, J. et al. Comparison of CHADS2, R2CHADS2, and CHA2DS2-VASc scores for the prediction of rhythm outcomes after catheter ablation of atrial fibrillation: the Leipzig Heart Center AF Ablation Registry. Circulation. Arrhythmia and electrophysiology. 7, 281\u2013287 (2014).","journal-title":"Circulation. Arrhythmia and electrophysiology."},{"key":"43644_CR20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"843","DOI":"10.1016\/j.amjcard.2007.11.021","volume":"101","author":"B Richter","year":"2008","unstructured":"Richter, B., Gwechenberger, M., Socas, A., Marx, M. & G\u00f6ssinger, H. D. Frequency of recurrence of atrial fibrillation within 48 hours after ablation and its impact on long-term outcome. The American journal of cardiology. 101, 843\u2013847 (2008).","journal-title":"The American journal of cardiology."},{"key":"43644_CR21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"221","DOI":"10.1023\/B:JICE.0000026915.02503.92","volume":"10","author":"S Lee","year":"2004","unstructured":"Lee, S. et al. Predictors of early and late recurrence of atrial fibrillation after catheter ablation of paroxysmal atrial fibrillation. Journal of interventional cardiac electrophysiology: an international journal of arrhythmias and pacing. 10, 221\u2013226 (2004).","journal-title":"Journal of interventional cardiac electrophysiology: an international journal of arrhythmias and pacing."},{"key":"43644_CR22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"615","DOI":"10.1161\/CIRCEP.111.963231","volume":"4","author":"EB Saad","year":"2011","unstructured":"Saad, E. B. et al. Very low risk of thromboembolic events in patients undergoing successful catheter ablation of atrial fibrillation with a CHADS2 score \u22643: a long-term outcome study. Circulation. Arrhythmia and electrophysiology. 4, 615\u2013621 (2011).","journal-title":"Circulation. Arrhythmia and electrophysiology."},{"key":"43644_CR23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"514","DOI":"10.1161\/CIRCEP.111.968032","volume":"5","author":"T Chao","year":"2012","unstructured":"Chao, T. et al. Clinical outcome of catheter ablation in patients with nonparoxysmal atrial fibrillation: results of 3-year follow-up. Circulation. Arrhythmia and electrophysiology. 5, 514\u2013520 (2012).","journal-title":"Circulation. Arrhythmia and electrophysiology."}],"container-title":["Scientific Reports"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-019-43644-2.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-019-43644-2","content-type":"text\/html","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-019-43644-2.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2022,12,17]],"date-time":"2022-12-17T09:22:25Z","timestamp":1671268945000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-019-43644-2"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2019,5,8]]},"references-count":23,"journal-issue":{"issue":"1","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2019,12]]}},"alternative-id":["43644"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41598-019-43644-2","relation":{},"ISSN":["2045-2322"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2045-2322","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2019,5,8]]},"assertion":[{"value":"18 February 2019","order":1,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"25 April 2019","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"8 May 2019","order":3,"name":"first_online","label":"First Online","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"The authors declare no competing interests.","order":1,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Competing Interests"}}],"article-number":"7112"}}