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We performed a retrospective observational study at the level III maternity ward of Angers university hospital. We included all women who had cervical ripening with dinoprostone between January 1<jats:sup>st<\/jats:sup>, 2015 and September 30<jats:sup>th<\/jats:sup>, 2016. Overall, 405 patients were included, and 59.3% (240\/405) were nulliparous. The mean time to delivery was 20h39 min\u2009\u00b1\u200910h49 min. 21% of deliveries (86\/405) occurred between midnight and 6\u2009h a.m., and the cesarean section rate was 33% (132\/405). Multiple regression analysis showed that nulliparity, overweight (BMI\u2009\u2265\u200925), a closed cervix on initial examination and the absence of premature rupture of membranes (PRM) all significantly increased the mean time to delivery. We developed a mathematical model integrating the aforementioned factors and their impact to help predict the mean time to delivery following cervical ripening with dinoprostone vaginal insert: Y\u2009=\u2009961.188\u201380.346\u2009\u00d7\u2009parity\u2009+\u200921.437\u2009\u00d7\u2009BMI\u2013165.263\u2009\u00d7\u2009cervical dilation\u2013241.759\u2009\u00d7\u2009PRM. This equation allows obstetricians to calculate a personalized time to delivery for each patient, allowing a precise scheduling of dinoprostone insert placement, and thus improving the organization in busy maternity wards.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-019-46101-2","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2019,7,9]],"date-time":"2019-07-09T13:01:56Z","timestamp":1562677316000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":9,"title":["A mathematical model to predict mean time to delivery following cervical ripening with dinoprostone vaginal insert"],"prefix":"10.1038","volume":"9","author":[{"given":"Fanny","family":"Levast","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Guillaume","family":"Legendre","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Hady El","family":"Hachem","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Patrick","family":"Saulnier","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Philippe","family":"Descamps","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Philippe","family":"Gillard","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Pierre-Emmanuel","family":"Bouet","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2019,7,9]]},"reference":[{"issue":"10","key":"46101_CR1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"701","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jogoh.2017.09.002","volume":"46","author":"B Blondel","year":"2017","unstructured":"Blondel, B., Coulm, B., Bonnet, C., Goffinet, F. & Le Ray, C. 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