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Therefore, we established a mathematical model to predict the incidence trend of HFRS and used Joinpoint regression analysis, a generalised additive model (GAM), and other methods to evaluate the data. Incidence data from the first half of 2018 were included in a range predicted by a modified sum autoregressive integrated moving average-support vector machine (ARIMA-SVM) combination model. The highest incidence of HFRS occurred in October and November, and the annual mortality rate decreased by 7.3% (p\u2009&lt;\u20090.05) from 2004 to 2017. In cold months, the incidence of HFRS increased by 4%, \u22121%, and 0.8% for every unit increase in temperature, relative humidity, and rainfall, respectively; in warm months, this incidence changed by 2%, \u22123%, and 0% respectively. Overall, HFRS incidence and mortality in Shandong showed a downward trend over the past 10 years. In both cold and warm months, the effects of temperature, relative humidity, and rainfall on HFRS incidence varied. A modified ARIMA-SVM combination model could effectively predict the occurrence of HFRS.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-019-50878-7","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2019,10,10]],"date-time":"2019-10-10T06:40:39Z","timestamp":1570689639000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":20,"title":["Epidemiological and time series analysis of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome from 2004 to 2017 in Shandong Province, China"],"prefix":"10.1038","volume":"9","author":[{"given":"Chao","family":"Zhang","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Xiao","family":"Fu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yuanying","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Cuifang","family":"Nie","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Liu","family":"Li","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Haijun","family":"Cao","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Junmei","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Baojia","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Shuying","family":"Yi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Zhen","family":"Ye","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2019,10,10]]},"reference":[{"key":"50878_CR1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"587","DOI":"10.1099\/0022-1317-49-7-587","volume":"49","author":"C McCaughey","year":"2000","unstructured":"McCaughey, C. et al. 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