{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,9]],"date-time":"2026-07-09T15:53:56Z","timestamp":1783612436028,"version":"3.55.0"},"reference-count":33,"publisher":"Springer Science and Business Media LLC","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2019,10,30]],"date-time":"2019-10-30T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1572393600000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2019,10,30]],"date-time":"2019-10-30T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1572393600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["link.springer.com"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Sci Rep"],"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:p>Hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) is an acute intestinal virus infectious disease which is one of major public health problems in mainland China. Previous studies indicated that HFMD was significantly influenced by climatic factors, but the associated factors were different in different areas and few study on HFMD forecast models was conducted. Here, we analyzed epidemiological characteristics of HFMD in Yiwu City, Zhejiang Province and constructed three forecast models. Overall, a total of 32554 HFMD cases were reported and 12 cases deceased in Yiwu City, Zhejiang Province. The incidence of HFMD peaked every other year and the curve of HFMD incidence had an approximately W-shape. The majority of HFMD cases were children and 95.76% cases aged \u22645 years old from 2008 to 2016. Furthermore, we constructed and compared three forecast models using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, negative binomial regression model (NBM), and quasi-Poisson generalized additive model (GAM). All the three models had high agreements between predicted values and observed values, while GAM fitted best. The exposure-response curve of monthly mean temperature and HFMD was approximately V-shaped. Our study explored epidemiological characteristics of HFMD in Yiwu City and provided accurate methods for early warning which would be great importance for the control and prevention of HFMD.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-019-52044-5","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2019,10,30]],"date-time":"2019-10-30T20:29:05Z","timestamp":1572467345000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":24,"title":["Development and comparison of forecast models of hand-foot-mouth disease with meteorological factors"],"prefix":"10.1038","volume":"9","author":[{"given":"Tao","family":"Fu","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ting","family":"Chen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Zhen-Bin","family":"Dong","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Shu-Ying","family":"Luo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ziping","family":"Miao","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Xiu-Ping","family":"Song","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ru-Ting","family":"Huang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ji-Min","family":"Sun","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2019,10,30]]},"reference":[{"key":"52044_CR1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"112","DOI":"10.24171\/j.phrp.2018.9.3.05","volume":"9","author":"D Seo","year":"2018","unstructured":"Seo, D. Estimating the incidence of cases and deaths resulting from hand, foot and mouth disease and its related socioeconomic disease burden in Republic of Korea (2010\u20132014). Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 9, 112\u2013117 (2018).","journal-title":"Osong Public Health Res Perspect."},{"key":"52044_CR2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1712","DOI":"10.1002\/jmv.25250","volume":"90","author":"H Yoshitomi","year":"2018","unstructured":"Yoshitomi, H. et al. Molecular epidemiology of coxsackievirus A6 derived from hand, foot, and mouth disease in Fukuoka between 2013 and 2017. J Med Virol. 90, 1712\u20131719 (2018).","journal-title":"J Med Virol."},{"key":"52044_CR3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1097","DOI":"10.1016\/S1474-4422(10)70209-X","volume":"9","author":"MH Ooi","year":"2010","unstructured":"Ooi, M. H. et al. Clinical features, diagnosis, and management of enterovirus 71. Lancet Neurol. 9, 1097\u20131105 (2010).","journal-title":"Lancet Neurol."},{"key":"52044_CR4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1500","DOI":"10.1017\/S0950268815002630","volume":"144","author":"CC Lai","year":"2016","unstructured":"Lai, C. C. et al. A dynamic model for the outbreaks of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Taiwan. Epidemiol Infect. 144, 1500\u20131511 (2016).","journal-title":"Epidemiol Infect."},{"key":"52044_CR5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"763","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ejpn.2018.04.007","volume":"2","author":"E Jones","year":"2018","unstructured":"Jones, E. et al. Outcomes following severe hand foot and mouth disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Eur J Paediatr Neurol. 2, 763\u2013773 (2018).","journal-title":"Eur J Paediatr Neurol."},{"key":"52044_CR6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"308","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(13)70342-6","volume":"14","author":"W Xing","year":"2014","unstructured":"Xing, W. et al. Hand, foot, and mouth disease in China, 2008-12: an epidemiological study. Lancet Infect Dis. 14, 308\u2013318 (2014).","journal-title":"Lancet Infect Dis."},{"key":"52044_CR7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"661","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.2.5606.661","volume":"2","author":"MF Duff","year":"1968","unstructured":"Duff, M. F. Hand-foot-and-mouth syndrome in humans: coxackie A10 infections in New Zealand. Br Med J. 2, 661\u2013664 (1968).","journal-title":"Br Med J."},{"key":"52044_CR8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/1471-2334-14-341","volume":"14","author":"NT Nguyen","year":"2014","unstructured":"Nguyen, N. T. et al. Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of children who died from hand, foot and mouth disease in Vietnam, 2011. BMC Infect Dis. 14, 341 (2014).","journal-title":"BMC Infect Dis."},{"key":"52044_CR9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"17","DOI":"10.1007\/BF02760573","volume":"72","author":"CK Sasidharan","year":"2005","unstructured":"Sasidharan, C. K. et al. Hand-foot-and-mouth disease in Calicut. Indian J Pediatr. 72, 17\u201321 (2005).","journal-title":"Indian J Pediatr."},{"key":"52044_CR10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"94","DOI":"10.1186\/1743-422X-7-94","volume":"7","author":"Y Zhang","year":"2010","unstructured":"Zhang, Y. et al. An emerging recombinant human enterovirus 71 responsible for the 2008 outbreak of hand foot and mouth disease in Fuyang city of China. Virol J. 7, 94 (2010).","journal-title":"Virol J."},{"key":"52044_CR11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"106","DOI":"10.47102\/annals-acadmedsg.V38N2p106","volume":"38","author":"LW Ang","year":"2009","unstructured":"Ang, L. W. et al. Epidemiology and control of hand, foot and mouth disease in Singapore, 2001\u20132007. Ann Acad Med Singapore. 38, 106\u2013112 (2009).","journal-title":"Ann Acad Med Singapore."},{"key":"52044_CR12","first-page":"316","volume":"25","author":"T Biswas","year":"2012","unstructured":"Biswas, T. Enterovirus 71 causes hand, foot and mouth disease outbreak in Cambodia. Natl Med J India. 25, 316 (2012).","journal-title":"Natl Med J India."},{"key":"52044_CR13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"221","DOI":"10.1007\/s12250-011-3195-8","volume":"26","author":"KB Chua","year":"2011","unstructured":"Chua, K. B. et al. Hand foot and mouth disease due to enterovirus 71 in Malaysia. Virol Sin. 26, 221\u2013228 (2011).","journal-title":"Virol Sin."},{"key":"52044_CR14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"621","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1348-0421.2002.tb02743.x","volume":"46","author":"T Fujimoto","year":"2002","unstructured":"Fujimoto, T. et al. Outbreak of central nervous system disease associated with hand, foot, and mouth disease in Japan during the summer of 2000: detection and molecular epidemiology of enterovirus 71. Microbiol Immunol. 46, 621\u2013627 (2002).","journal-title":"Microbiol Immunol."},{"key":"52044_CR15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"929","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJM199909233411301","volume":"341","author":"M Ho","year":"1999","unstructured":"Ho, M. et al. An epidemic of enterovirus 71 infection in Taiwan. Taiwan Enterovirus Epidemic Working Group. N Engl J Med. 341, 929\u2013935 (1999).","journal-title":"N Engl J Med."},{"key":"52044_CR16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2002","DOI":"10.3201\/eid1812.120929","volume":"18","author":"TH Khanh","year":"2012","unstructured":"Khanh, T. H. et al. Enterovirus 71-associated hand, foot, and mouth disease, Southern Vietnam, 2011. Emerg Infect Dis. 18, 2002\u20132005 (2012).","journal-title":"Emerg Infect Dis."},{"key":"52044_CR17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/1471-2334-13-134","volume":"13","author":"Y Huang","year":"2013","unstructured":"Huang, Y. et al. Effect of meteorological variables on the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease in children: a time-series analysis in Guangzhou, China. BMC Infect Dis. 13, 134 (2013).","journal-title":"BMC Infect Dis."},{"key":"52044_CR18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e65585","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0065585","volume":"8","author":"H Lin","year":"2013","unstructured":"Lin, H. et al. Short-term effect of El Nino-Southern Oscillation on pediatric hand, foot and mouth disease in Shenzhen, China. PLoS One. 8, e65585 (2013).","journal-title":"PLoS One."},{"key":"52044_CR19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"119","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2011.09.055","volume":"410\u2013411","author":"D Onozuka","year":"2011","unstructured":"Onozuka, D. et al. The influence of temperature and humidity on the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Japan. Sci Total Environ. 410\u2013411, 119\u2013125 (2011).","journal-title":"Sci Total Environ."},{"key":"52044_CR20","first-page":"831","volume":"31","author":"C Wu","year":"2016","unstructured":"Wu, C. et al. Epidemiology of hand foot and mouth disease in Zhejiang, 2008\u20132015. Dis Surveillance. 31, 831\u2013837 (2016).","journal-title":"Dis Surveillance."},{"key":"52044_CR21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1188","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2018.01.196","volume":"626","author":"JM Sun","year":"2018","unstructured":"Sun, J. M. et al. Forecast of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome incidence with meteorological factors. Sci Total Environ. 626, 1188\u20131192 (2018).","journal-title":"Sci Total Environ."},{"key":"52044_CR22","first-page":"541","volume":"31","author":"YJ Zhang","year":"2015","unstructured":"Zhang, Y. J. et al. Epidemic characteristics of hand, foot and mouth disease in mainland China, 2008-2010: a cluster analysis. Chin. J Public Health. 31, 541\u2013544 (2015).","journal-title":"Chin. J Public Health."},{"key":"52044_CR23","first-page":"451","volume":"48","author":"J Cai","year":"2014","unstructured":"Cai, J. et al. Temporal-spatial scan clustering analysis on hand-foot-mouth disease in Zhejiang Province, 2008-2013. Chin J Prevent Med. 48, 451\u2013455 (2014).","journal-title":"Chin J Prevent Med."},{"key":"52044_CR24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e0131311","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0131311","volume":"10","author":"WD Liu","year":"2015","unstructured":"Liu, W. D. et al. Spatiotemporal dynamics of hand-foot-mouth disease and its relationship with meteorological factors in Jiangsu Province, China. PLoS One. 10, e0131311 (2015).","journal-title":"PLoS One."},{"key":"52044_CR25","first-page":"676","volume":"27","author":"Y Jin","year":"2012","unstructured":"Jin, Y. et al. Epidemiology of hand, foot and mouth disease in mainland of China, 2011. Dis Surveillance. 27, 676\u2013679 (2012).","journal-title":"Dis Surveillance."},{"key":"52044_CR26","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"484","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2014.08.006","volume":"497\u2013498","author":"J Cheng","year":"2014","unstructured":"Cheng, J. et al. Associations between extreme precipitation and childhood hand, foot and mouth disease in urban and rural areas in Hefei, China. Sci Total Environ. 497\u2013498, 484\u2013490 (2014).","journal-title":"Sci Total Environ."},{"key":"52044_CR27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"460","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2018.07.329","volume":"646","author":"GQ Yu","year":"2019","unstructured":"Yu, G. Q. et al. Short-term effects of meteorological factors and air pollution on childhood hand-foot-mouth disease in Guilin, China. Sci Total Environ. 646, 460\u2013470 (2019).","journal-title":"Sci Total Environ."},{"key":"52044_CR28","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1411","DOI":"10.1007\/s00484-017-1318-0","volume":"61","author":"P Wang","year":"2017","unstructured":"Wang, P. et al. Seasonal modeling of hand, foot, and mouth disease as a function of meteorological variations in Chongqing, China. Int J Biometeorol 61, 1411\u20131419 (2017).","journal-title":"Int J Biometeorol"},{"key":"52044_CR29","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e0161006","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0161006","volume":"11","author":"P Wang","year":"2016","unstructured":"Wang, P. et al. Hand, foot and mouth disease in Hong Kong: a time-series analysis on its relationship with weather. PLoS One. 11, e0161006 (2016).","journal-title":"PLoS One."},{"key":"52044_CR30","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s12879-018-3071-3","volume":"18","author":"L Tian","year":"2018","unstructured":"Tian, L. et al. Spatio-temporal analysis of the relationship between meteorological factors and hand foot-mouth disease in Beijing, China. BMC Infect Dis. 18, 158 (2018).","journal-title":"BMC Infect Dis."},{"key":"52044_CR31","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"166","DOI":"10.1186\/1475-2875-9-166","volume":"9","author":"E Loha","year":"2010","unstructured":"Loha, E. et al. Model variations in predicting incidence of Plasmodium falciparum malaria using 1998\u20132007 morbidity and meteorological data from south Ethiopia. Malar J. 9, 166\u2013174 (2010).","journal-title":"Malar J."},{"key":"52044_CR32","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"218","DOI":"10.1186\/1471-2334-11-218","volume":"11","author":"Q Liu","year":"2011","unstructured":"Liu, Q. et al. Forecasting incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in China using ARIMA model. BMC Infect Dis. 11, 218\u2013225 (2011).","journal-title":"BMC Infect Dis."},{"key":"52044_CR33","unstructured":"Hastie, T. J. et al. Generalized additive models. Chapman & Hall\/CRC (1990)."}],"container-title":["Scientific Reports"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-019-52044-5.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-019-52044-5","content-type":"text\/html","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-019-52044-5.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2022,12,17]],"date-time":"2022-12-17T15:09:28Z","timestamp":1671289768000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-019-52044-5"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2019,10,30]]},"references-count":33,"journal-issue":{"issue":"1","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2019,12]]}},"alternative-id":["52044"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41598-019-52044-5","relation":{},"ISSN":["2045-2322"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2045-2322","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2019,10,30]]},"assertion":[{"value":"4 July 2019","order":1,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"12 October 2019","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"30 October 2019","order":3,"name":"first_online","label":"First Online","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"The authors declare no competing interests.","order":1,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Competing interests"}}],"article-number":"15691"}}