{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,20]],"date-time":"2026-08-20T14:46:40Z","timestamp":1787237200412,"version":"build-2736575974"},"reference-count":37,"publisher":"Springer Science and Business Media LLC","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2020,10,20]],"date-time":"2020-10-20T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1603152000000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2020,10,20]],"date-time":"2020-10-20T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1603152000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001703","name":"\u00c9cole Polytechnique F\u00e9d\u00e9rale de Lausanne","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001703","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["link.springer.com"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Sci Rep"],"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>\n                    The plague, an infectious disease caused by the bacterium\n                    <jats:italic>Yersinia pestis<\/jats:italic>\n                    , is widely considered to be responsible for the most devastating and deadly pandemics in human history. Starting with the infamous\n                    <jats:italic>Black Death<\/jats:italic>\n                    , plague outbreaks are estimated to have killed around 100 million people over multiple centuries, with local mortality rates as high as 60%. However, detailed pictures of the disease dynamics of these outbreaks centuries ago remain scarce, mainly due to the lack of high-quality historical data in digital form. Here, we present an analysis of the 1630\u20131631 plague outbreak in the city of Venice, using newly collected daily death records. We identify the presence of a two-peak pattern, for which we present two possible explanations based on computational models of disease dynamics. Systematically digitized historical records like the ones presented here promise to enrich our understanding of historical phenomena of enduring importance. This work contributes to the recently renewed interdisciplinary foray into the epidemiological and societal impact of pre-modern epidemics.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-020-74775-6","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2020,10,20]],"date-time":"2020-10-20T06:03:16Z","timestamp":1603173796000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":7,"title":["A digital reconstruction of the 1630\u20131631 large plague outbreak in Venice"],"prefix":"10.1038","volume":"10","author":[{"given":"Gianrocco","family":"Lazzari","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Giovanni","family":"Colavizza","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Fabio","family":"Bortoluzzi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Davide","family":"Drago","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Andrea","family":"Erboso","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Francesca","family":"Zugno","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Fr\u00e9d\u00e9ric","family":"Kaplan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Marcel","family":"Salath\u00e9","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2020,10,20]]},"reference":[{"issue":"01","key":"74775_CR1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"314","DOI":"10.1017\/S0022050717000092","volume":"77","author":"G Alfani","year":"2017","unstructured":"Alfani, G. & Murphy, T. E. Plague and lethal epidemics in the pre-industrial world. J. Econ. Hist. 77(01), 314\u2013343 (2017).","journal-title":"J. Econ. Hist."},{"issue":"6806","key":"74775_CR2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"903","DOI":"10.1038\/35038073","volume":"407","author":"MJ Keeling","year":"2000","unstructured":"Keeling, M. J. & Gilligan, C. A. Metapopulation dynamics of bubonic plague. Nature 407(6806), 903\u2013906 (2000).","journal-title":"Nature"},{"issue":"4","key":"74775_CR3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"234","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(06)70438-8","volume":"6","author":"M Drancourt","year":"2006","unstructured":"Drancourt, M., Houhamdi, L. & Raoult, D. Yersinia pestis as a telluric, human ectoparasite-borne organism. Lancet Infect. Dis. 6(4), 234\u2013241 (2006).","journal-title":"Lancet Infect. 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R. & Bossak, B. H. Validation of inverse seasonal peak mortality in Medieval plagues, including the black death, in comparison to modern Yersinia pestis-variant diseases. PLoS One 4(12), e8401 (2009).","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"issue":"10","key":"74775_CR7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3020","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1412887112","volume":"112","author":"BV Schmid","year":"2015","unstructured":"Schmid, B. V. et al. Climate-driven introduction of the Black Death and successive plague reintroductions into Europe. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 112(10), 3020\u20133025 (2015).","journal-title":"Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci."},{"issue":"9","key":"74775_CR8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"700","DOI":"10.1016\/j.puhe.2006.12.011","volume":"121","author":"G Christakos","year":"2007","unstructured":"Christakos, G., Olea, R. A. & Yu, H. L. Recent results on the spatiotemporal modelling and comparative analysis of Black Death and bubonic plague epidemics. 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