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We developed new prediction models for mortality or cardiovascular events investigating the predictive potential of serum AZGP1 in a community-based cohort of older adults. We measured AZGP1 (\u03bcg\/ml) in stored serum samples of 930 individuals of the Berlin Initiative Study, a prospective, population-based cohort of adults aged\u2009\u2265\u200970. We determined the prognostic potential of 20 knowledge-based predictors including AZGP1 for the outcomes of mortality or the composite endpoint of death and cardiovascular events (stroke, myocardial infarction (MI)) using Cox models; their model fit was evaluated with calibration plots, goodness-of-fit tests and c-indices. During median follow-up of 48.3\u00a0months, 70 incident strokes, 38 incident MI and 234 deaths occurred. We found no associations or correlations between AZGP1 and other candidate variables. After multivariable Cox regression with backward-selection AZGP1 remained in both models for mortality (HR\u2009=\u20090.44, 95%CI: 0.24\u20130.80) and for the composite endpoint (HR\u2009=\u20090.43, 95%CI: 0.23\u20130.82). Within newly built prediction models, we found that increased AZGP1 levels were predictive for lower risk of mortality and the composite endpoint in older adults. AZGP1 as a predictor warrants further validation in older adults.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-021-91169-4","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,6,3]],"date-time":"2021-06-03T10:14:48Z","timestamp":1622715288000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":14,"title":["Development of a prediction model for mortality and cardiovascular outcomes in older adults taking into account AZGP1"],"prefix":"10.1038","volume":"11","author":[{"given":"D\u00f6rte","family":"Huscher","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Natalie","family":"Ebert","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Inga","family":"Soerensen-Zender","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Nina","family":"Mielke","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Elke","family":"Schaeffner","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Roland","family":"Schmitt","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,6,3]]},"reference":[{"key":"91169_CR1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"5372625","DOI":"10.1155\/2017\/5372625","volume":"2017","author":"L Xu","year":"2017","unstructured":"Xu, L. et al. 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DH received travel compensation from Actelion, Boehringer-Ingelheim, and Shire. NE received personal fees from Siemens Healthineers. ISZ and NM have nothing to disclose. ES received personal fees from Siemens Healthineers, Fresenius Kabi, and Fresenius Medical Care. RS received personal fees from Fresenius Medical Care, and Otsuka.","order":1,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Competing interests"}}],"article-number":"11792"}}