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The incidences of PCE in any grade (A-PCE) and symptomatic PCE (S-PCE) were evaluated separately. To identify predictors for PCE, several clinical and dose-volume parameters were analysed using a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and multivariate regression analysis. To validate its clinical applicability, the generated NTCP model was compared to the Lyman\u2013Kutcher\u2013Burman (LKB) model. Among 229 eligible patients, A-PCE and S-PCE were observed in 100 (43.7%) and 18 (7.9%) patients, respectively. MHD showed a preferable area under the curve (AUC) value for S-PCE (AUC\u2009=\u20090.821) and A-PCE (AUC\u2009=\u20090.734). MHD was the only significant predictor for A-PCE; MHD and hypertension were selected as significant factors for S-PCE. The estimated NTCP, using the MHD-based model, showed excellent correspondence to the LKB model in A-PCE and S-PCE. The NTCP curve of A-PCE was gentler than that of S-PCE and had no threshold. The MHD-based NTCP model was simple but comparable to the LKB model for both A-PCE and S-PCE. Therefore, the estimated NTCP may provide clinically useful parameters for predicting PCE.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-021-97605-9","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,9,13]],"date-time":"2021-09-13T10:04:04Z","timestamp":1631527444000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":9,"title":["Mean heart dose-based normal tissue complication probability model for pericardial effusion: a study in oesophageal cancer patients"],"prefix":"10.1038","volume":"11","author":[{"given":"Junichi","family":"Fukada","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Kyohei","family":"Fukata","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Naoyoshi","family":"Koike","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ryuichi","family":"Kota","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Naoyuki","family":"Shigematsu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,9,13]]},"reference":[{"key":"97605_CR1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"256","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.326.7383.256","volume":"326","author":"S Darby","year":"2003","unstructured":"Darby, S. et al. 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