{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,16]],"date-time":"2026-06-16T04:33:40Z","timestamp":1781584420368,"version":"3.54.5"},"reference-count":106,"publisher":"Springer Science and Business Media LLC","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,4,12]],"date-time":"2022-04-12T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1649721600000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,4,12]],"date-time":"2022-04-12T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1649721600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100017587","name":"European Centre for Training and Research in Earthquake Engineering","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100017587","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100016270","name":"Global Challenges Research Fund","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["NE\/S009000\/1, Tomorrow's Cities Hub"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["NE\/S009000\/1, Tomorrow's Cities Hub"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100016270","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["link.springer.com"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Sci Rep"],"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:p>In our rapidly urbanizing world, many hazard-prone regions face significant challenges regarding risk-informed urban development. This study addresses this issue by investigating evolving spatial interactions between natural hazards, ever-increasing urban areas, and social vulnerability in Kathmandu Valley, Nepal. The methodology considers: (1) the characterization of flood hazard and liquefaction susceptibility using pre-existing global models; (2) the simulation of future urban built-up areas using the cellular-automata SLEUTH model; and (3) the assessment of social vulnerability, using a composite index tailored for the case-study area. Results show that built-up areas in Kathmandu Valley will increase to 352 km<jats:sup>2<\/jats:sup>by 2050, effectively doubling the equivalent 2018 figure. The most socially vulnerable villages will account for 29% of built-up areas in 2050, 11% more than current levels. Built-up areas in the 100-year and 1000-year return period floodplains will respectively increase from 38 km<jats:sup>2<\/jats:sup>and 49 km<jats:sup>2<\/jats:sup>today to 83 km<jats:sup>2<\/jats:sup>and 108 km<jats:sup>2<\/jats:sup>in 2050. Additionally, built-up areas in liquefaction-susceptible zones will expand by 13 km<jats:sup>2<\/jats:sup>to 47 km<jats:sup>2<\/jats:sup>. This study illustrates how, where, and to which extent risks from natural hazards can evolve in socially vulnerable regions. Ultimately, it emphasizes an urgent need to implement effective policy measures for reducing tomorrow's natural-hazard risks.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-022-09347-x","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,4,12]],"date-time":"2022-04-12T21:03:05Z","timestamp":1649797385000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":73,"title":["Urban growth modelling and social vulnerability assessment for a hazardous Kathmandu Valley"],"prefix":"10.1038","volume":"12","author":[{"given":"Carlos","family":"Mesta","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Gemma","family":"Cremen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Carmine","family":"Galasso","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,4,12]]},"reference":[{"key":"9347_CR1","unstructured":"United Nations Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs. World Population Prospects 2019: Highlights (ST\/ESA\/SER.A\/423). (2019)."},{"key":"9347_CR2","unstructured":"United Nations Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs. World Urbanization Prospects: The 2018 Revision (ST\/ESA\/SER.A\/420). (2019)."},{"key":"9347_CR3","first-page":"53","volume":"75","author":"S Angel","year":"2011","unstructured":"Angel, S., Parent, J., Civco, D. L., Blei, A. & Potere, D. The dimensions of global urban expansion: Estimates and projections for all countries 2000\u20132050. Dimens. Glob. Urban Expans. Estim. Proj. Ctries. 75, 53\u2013107 (2011).","journal-title":"Dimens. Glob. Urban Expans. Estim. Proj. Ctries."},{"key":"9347_CR4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"167","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev-environ-100809-125336","volume":"35","author":"KC Seto","year":"2010","unstructured":"Seto, K. C., S\u00e1nchez-Rodr\u00edguez, R. & Fragkias, M. The new geography of contemporary urbanization and the environment. Annu. Rev. Environ. Resour. 35, 167\u2013194 (2010).","journal-title":"Annu. Rev. Environ. Resour."},{"key":"9347_CR5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"16083","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1211658109","volume":"109","author":"KC Seto","year":"2012","unstructured":"Seto, K. C., G\u00fcneralp, B. & Hutyra, L. R. Global forecasts of urban expansion to 2030 and direct impacts on biodiversity and carbon pools. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 109, 16083 (2012).","journal-title":"Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci."},{"key":"9347_CR6","unstructured":"United Nations Human Settlements Programme (UN-Habitat). World Cities Report 2020: The Value of Sustainable Urbanization. (2020)."},{"key":"9347_CR7","unstructured":"United Nations Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs. The World\u2019s Cities in 2018\u202f: Data Booklet. (2018)."},{"key":"9347_CR8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"223","DOI":"10.1007\/s41885-020-00060-5","volume":"4","author":"S Hallegatte","year":"2020","unstructured":"Hallegatte, S., Vogt-Schilb, A., Rozenberg, J., Bangalore, M. & Beaudet, C. From poverty to disaster and back: A review of the literature. Econ. Disasters Clim. Change 4, 223\u2013247 (2020).","journal-title":"Econ. Disasters Clim. Change"},{"key":"9347_CR9","unstructured":"United Nations. Transforming our World: The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. (2015)."},{"key":"9347_CR10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"16","DOI":"10.1080\/02646811.2016.1133983","volume":"34","author":"A Savaresi","year":"2016","unstructured":"Savaresi, A. The Paris Agreement: A new beginning?. J. Energy Nat. Resour. Law 34, 16\u201326 (2016).","journal-title":"J. Energy Nat. Resour. Law"},{"key":"9347_CR11","unstructured":"United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction. Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015\u20132030. (2015)."},{"key":"9347_CR12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"102158","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijdrr.2021.102158","volume":"58","author":"C Galasso","year":"2021","unstructured":"Galasso, C. et al. Editorial Risk-based, Pro-poor Urban Design and Planning for Tomorrow\u2019s Cities. Int. J. Disaster Risk Reduct. 58, 102158 (2021).","journal-title":"Int. J. Disaster Risk Reduct."},{"key":"9347_CR13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"152552","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2021.152552","volume":"817","author":"G Cremen","year":"2022","unstructured":"Cremen, G., Galasso, C. & McCloskey, J. Modelling and quantifying tomorrow\u2019s risks from natural hazards. Sci. Total Environ. 817, 152552 (2022).","journal-title":"Sci. Total Environ."},{"key":"9347_CR14","unstructured":"Fraser, S. et al. The Making of a Riskier Future: How Our Decisions are Shaping Future Disaster Risk. (2016)."},{"key":"9347_CR15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"123","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jenvman.2015.11.011","volume":"168","author":"V Gallina","year":"2016","unstructured":"Gallina, V. et al. A review of multi-risk methodologies for natural hazards: Consequences and challenges for a climate change impact assessment. J. Environ. Manage. 168, 123\u2013132 (2016).","journal-title":"J. Environ. Manage."},{"key":"9347_CR16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Calder\u00f3n, A. & Silva, V. Exposure forecasting for seismic risk estimation: Application to Costa Rica. Earthq. Spectra (2021).","DOI":"10.1177\/8755293021989333"},{"key":"9347_CR17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"251","DOI":"10.1007\/s11069-018-3510-x","volume":"98","author":"SE Chang","year":"2019","unstructured":"Chang, S. E., Yip, J. Z. K. & Tse, W. Effects of urban development on future multi-hazard risk: The case of Vancouver, Canada. Nat. Hazards 98, 251\u2013265 (2019).","journal-title":"Nat. Hazards"},{"key":"9347_CR18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1048","DOI":"10.3390\/su11041048","volume":"11","author":"Y Kim","year":"2019","unstructured":"Kim, Y. & Newman, G. Climate change preparedness: Comparing future urban growth and flood risk in Amsterdam and Houston. Sustainability 11, 1048 (2019).","journal-title":"Sustainability"},{"key":"9347_CR19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1088\/1748-9326\/ababc7","volume":"15","author":"G Mestav Sarica","year":"2020","unstructured":"Mestav Sarica, G., Zhu, T. & Pan, T. C. Spatio-temporal dynamics in seismic exposure of Asian megacities: Past, present and future. Environ. Res. Lett. 15, 1\u201310 (2020).","journal-title":"Environ. Res. Lett."},{"key":"9347_CR20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"680","DOI":"10.1002\/2013RG000445","volume":"52","author":"JC Gill","year":"2014","unstructured":"Gill, J. C. & Malamud, B. D. Reviewing and visualizing the interactions of natural hazards. Rev. Geophys. 52, 680\u2013722 (2014).","journal-title":"Rev. Geophys."},{"key":"9347_CR21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"102881","DOI":"10.1016\/j.earscirev.2019.102881","volume":"196","author":"A Tilloy","year":"2019","unstructured":"Tilloy, A., Malamud, B. D., Winter, H. & Joly-Laugel, A. A review of quantification methodologies for multi-hazard interrelationships. Earth Sci. Rev. 196, 102881 (2019).","journal-title":"Earth Sci. Rev."},{"key":"9347_CR22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"242","DOI":"10.1111\/1540-6237.8402002","volume":"84","author":"SL Cutter","year":"2003","unstructured":"Cutter, S. L., Boruff, B. J. & Shirley, W. L. Social vulnerability to environmental hazards. Soc. Sci. Q. 84, 242\u2013261 (2003).","journal-title":"Soc. Sci. Q."},{"key":"9347_CR23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1216","DOI":"10.1080\/15583058.2018.1503369","volume":"12","author":"C Rodriquez","year":"2018","unstructured":"Rodriquez, C., Monteiro, R. & Ceresa, P. Assessing seismic social vulnerability in urban centers: The case-study of Nablus Palestine. Int. J. Archit. Herit. 12, 1216 (2018).","journal-title":"Int. J. Archit. Herit."},{"key":"9347_CR24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"7358","DOI":"10.1002\/2015WR016954","volume":"51","author":"CC Sampson","year":"2015","unstructured":"Sampson, C. C. et al. A high-resolution global flood hazard model. Water Resour. Res. 51, 7358\u20137381 (2015).","journal-title":"Water Resour. Res."},{"key":"9347_CR25","volume-title":"Global Liquefaction Susceptibility Map","author":"E Koks","year":"2019","unstructured":"Koks, E. & Zorn, C. Global Liquefaction Susceptibility Map. (2019)."},{"key":"9347_CR26","first-page":"88","volume":"1","author":"G Chaudhuri","year":"2013","unstructured":"Chaudhuri, G. & Clarke, K. The SLEUTH land use change model: A review. Environ. Resour. Res. 1, 88\u2013105 (2013).","journal-title":"Environ. Resour. Res."},{"key":"9347_CR27","unstructured":"Timsina, N. P., Shrestha, A., Poudel, D. P. & Upadhyaya, R. Trend of urban growth in Nepal with a focus in Kathmandu Valley: A review of processes and drivers of change. (2020)."},{"key":"9347_CR28","unstructured":"Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS). National Population and Housing Census 2011. (2012)."},{"key":"9347_CR29","unstructured":"Eckstein, D., Hutfils, M.-L. & Winges, M. Global Climate Risk Index 2021. (2021)."},{"key":"9347_CR30","unstructured":"United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction. Disaster Risk Reduction in Nepal: Status Report 2019. (2019)."},{"key":"9347_CR31","unstructured":"Government of Nepal, N. P. C. Nepal Earthquake 2015: Post Disaster Needs Assessment. vol. A (2015)."},{"key":"9347_CR32","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"37","DOI":"10.1016\/j.soildyn.2017.03.001","volume":"97","author":"D Gautam","year":"2017","unstructured":"Gautam, D., de Magistris, F. S. & Fabbrocino, G. Soil liquefaction in Kathmandu valley due to 25 April 2015 Gorkha, Nepal earthquake. Soil Dyn. Earthq. Eng. 97, 37\u201347 (2017).","journal-title":"Soil Dyn. Earthq. Eng."},{"key":"9347_CR33","unstructured":"Government of Nepal, N. P. C. Nepal Flood 2017: Post Flood Recovery Needs Assessment. (2017)."},{"key":"9347_CR34","unstructured":"United Nations Office of the Resident Coordinator: Nepal. Nepal: Floods 2017 - Office of the Resident Coordinator Situation Report No. 9 (as of 20 September 2017). (2017)."},{"key":"9347_CR35","unstructured":"Ministry of Forests and Environment. Climate change scenarios for Nepal for National Adaptation Plan."},{"key":"9347_CR36","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"163","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-319-60801-3_9","volume-title":"Geomatic Approaches for Modeling Land Change Scenarios","author":"J D\u00edaz-Pacheco","year":"2018","unstructured":"D\u00edaz-Pacheco, J., van Delden, H. & Hewitt, R. The Importance of scale in land use models: Experiments in data conversion, data resampling, resolution and neighborhood extent. In Geomatic Approaches for Modeling Land Change Scenarios (eds Camacho Olmedo, M. T. et al.) 163\u2013186 (Springer, 2018)."},{"key":"9347_CR37","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"5844","DOI":"10.1002\/2017GL072874","volume":"44","author":"D Yamazaki","year":"2017","unstructured":"Yamazaki, D. et al. A high-accuracy map of global terrain elevations. Geophys. Res. Lett. 44, 5844\u20135853 (2017).","journal-title":"Geophys. Res. Lett."},{"key":"9347_CR38","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"5053","DOI":"10.1029\/2019WR024873","volume":"55","author":"D Yamazaki","year":"2019","unstructured":"Yamazaki, D. et al. MERIT hydro: A high-resolution global hydrography map based on latest topography dataset. Water Resour. Res. 55, 5053\u20135073 (2019).","journal-title":"Water Resour. Res."},{"key":"9347_CR39","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"539","DOI":"10.1002\/2014WR015814","volume":"51","author":"A Smith","year":"2015","unstructured":"Smith, A., Sampson, C. & Bates, P. Regional flood frequency analysis at the global scale. Water Resour. Res. 51, 539\u2013553 (2015).","journal-title":"Water Resour. Res."},{"key":"9347_CR40","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"829","DOI":"10.1007\/s11069-011-0072-6","volume":"61","author":"J Ludy","year":"2012","unstructured":"Ludy, J. & Kondolf, G. M. Flood risk perception in lands \u201cprotected\u201d by 100-year levees. Nat. Hazards 61, 829\u2013842 (2012).","journal-title":"Nat. Hazards"},{"key":"9347_CR41","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"435","DOI":"10.1007\/s11069-020-04470-2","volume":"106","author":"E Tate","year":"2021","unstructured":"Tate, E., Rahman, M. A., Emrich, C. T. & Sampson, C. C. Flood exposure and social vulnerability in the United States. Nat. Hazards 106, 435\u2013457 (2021).","journal-title":"Nat. Hazards"},{"key":"9347_CR42","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1365","DOI":"10.1785\/0120160198","volume":"107","author":"J Zhu","year":"2017","unstructured":"Zhu, J., Baise, L. G. & Thompson, E. M. An updated geospatial liquefaction model for global application. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 107, 1365\u20131385 (2017).","journal-title":"Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am."},{"key":"9347_CR43","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Maurer, B. W., Bradley, B. A. & van Ballegooy, S. Liquefaction Hazard Assessment: Satellites vs. In Situ Tests. Geotechnical Earthquake Engineering and Soil Dynamics V 348\u2013356.","DOI":"10.1061\/9780784481455.034"},{"key":"9347_CR44","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2677","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467-019-10442-3","volume":"10","author":"EE Koks","year":"2019","unstructured":"Koks, E. E. et al. A global multi-hazard risk analysis of road and railway infrastructure assets. Nat. Commun. 10, 2677 (2019).","journal-title":"Nat. Commun."},{"key":"9347_CR45","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"781","DOI":"10.5194\/nhess-17-781-2017","volume":"17","author":"I Kongar","year":"2017","unstructured":"Kongar, I., Rossetto, T. & Giovinazzi, S. Evaluating simplified methods for liquefaction assessment for loss estimation. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 17, 781\u2013800 (2017).","journal-title":"Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci."},{"key":"9347_CR46","unstructured":"Pagani, M. et al. Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Seismic Hazard Map (version 2018.1 - December 2018)."},{"key":"9347_CR47","unstructured":"Pesaresi, M. et al. Operating procedure for the production of the Global Human Settlement Layer from Landsat data of the epochs 1975, 1990, 2000, and 2014. (2016)."},{"key":"9347_CR48","unstructured":"Pesaresi, M. et al. Atlas of the Human Planet 2017: Global Exposure to Natural Hazards. (2017)."},{"key":"9347_CR49","unstructured":"Bright, E. A., Rose, A. N., Urban, M. L. & McKee, J. LandScan 2017 High-Resolution Global Population Data Set. (2018)."},{"key":"9347_CR50","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"170004","DOI":"10.1038\/sdata.2017.4","volume":"4","author":"AJ Tatem","year":"2017","unstructured":"Tatem, A. J. WorldPop, open data for spatial demography. Sci. Data 4, 170004 (2017).","journal-title":"Sci. Data"},{"key":"9347_CR51","unstructured":"Facebook Connectivity Lab & Center for International Earth Science Information Network: CIESIN: Columbia University. High Resolution Settlement Layer (HRSL). (2016)."},{"key":"9347_CR52","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"034018","DOI":"10.1088\/1748-9326\/aaac07","volume":"13","author":"S Du","year":"2018","unstructured":"Du, S., He, C., Huang, Q. & Shi, P. How did the urban land in floodplains distribute and expand in China from 1992\u20132015?. Environ. Res. Lett. 13, 034018\u2013034018 (2018).","journal-title":"Environ. Res. Lett."},{"key":"9347_CR53","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"001795","DOI":"10.1029\/2020EF001795","volume":"9","author":"V Iglesias","year":"2021","unstructured":"Iglesias, V. et al. Risky development: Increasing exposure to natural hazards in the United States. Earths Future 9, 001795 (2021).","journal-title":"Earths Future"},{"key":"9347_CR54","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"143559","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2020.143559","volume":"759","author":"MP Mohanty","year":"2021","unstructured":"Mohanty, M. P. & Simonovic, S. P. Understanding dynamics of population flood exposure in Canada with multiple high-resolution population datasets. Sci. Total Environ. 759, 143559\u2013143559 (2021).","journal-title":"Sci. Total Environ."},{"key":"9347_CR55","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1814","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467-019-09282-y","volume":"10","author":"A Smith","year":"2019","unstructured":"Smith, A. et al. New estimates of flood exposure in developing countries using high-resolution population data. Nat. Commun. 10, 1814 (2019).","journal-title":"Nat. Commun."},{"key":"9347_CR56","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"034002","DOI":"10.1088\/1748-9326\/aa5d47","volume":"12","author":"J Wu","year":"2017","unstructured":"Wu, J., Wang, C., He, X., Wang, X. & Li, N. Spatiotemporal changes in both asset value and GDP associated with seismic exposure in China in the context of rapid economic growth from 1990 to 2010. Environ. Res. Lett. 12, 034002\u2013034002 (2017).","journal-title":"Environ. Res. Lett."},{"key":"9347_CR57","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"3253","DOI":"10.3390\/w12113253","volume":"12","author":"S Zhu","year":"2020","unstructured":"Zhu, S., Dai, Q., Zhao, B. & Shao, J. Assessment of population exposure to urban flood at the building scale. Water 12, 3253 (2020).","journal-title":"Water"},{"key":"9347_CR58","volume-title":"A Review of Land-Use Change Models","author":"A van Soesbergen","year":"2016","unstructured":"van Soesbergen, A. A Review of Land-Use Change Models (UNEP World Conservation Monitoring Centre, 2016)."},{"key":"9347_CR59","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1377","DOI":"10.1080\/10807039.2018.1468994","volume":"25","author":"T Noszczyk","year":"2019","unstructured":"Noszczyk, T. A review of approaches to land use changes modeling. Hum. Ecol. Risk Assess. Int. J. 25, 1377\u20131405 (2019).","journal-title":"Hum. Ecol. Risk Assess. Int. J."},{"key":"9347_CR60","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"108","DOI":"10.1016\/j.landurbplan.2010.03.001","volume":"96","author":"I Sant\u00e9","year":"2010","unstructured":"Sant\u00e9, I., Garc\u00eda, A. M., Miranda, D. & Crecente, R. Cellular automata models for the simulation of real-world urban processes: A review and analysis. Landsc. Urban Plan. 96, 108\u2013122 (2010).","journal-title":"Landsc. Urban Plan."},{"key":"9347_CR61","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"101525","DOI":"10.1016\/j.compenvurbsys.2020.101525","volume":"83","author":"KC Clarke","year":"2020","unstructured":"Clarke, K. C. & Johnson, J. M. Calibrating SLEUTH with big data: Projecting California\u2019s land use to 2100. Comput. Environ. Urban Syst. 83, 101525 (2020).","journal-title":"Comput. Environ. Urban Syst."},{"key":"9347_CR62","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"251","DOI":"10.1068\/b2983","volume":"31","author":"CA Jantz","year":"2004","unstructured":"Jantz, C. A., Goetz, S. J. & Shelley, M. K. Using the Sleuth urban growth model to simulate the impacts of future policy scenarios on urban land use in the Baltimore-Washington metropolitan area. Environ. Plan. B Plan. Des. 31, 251\u2013271 (2004).","journal-title":"Environ. Plan. B Plan. Des."},{"key":"9347_CR63","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"101545","DOI":"10.1016\/j.compenvurbsys.2020.101545","volume":"84","author":"D Liu","year":"2020","unstructured":"Liu, D., Clarke, K. C. & Chen, N. Integrating spatial nonstationarity into SLEUTH for urban growth modeling: A case study in the Wuhan metropolitan area. Comput. Environ. Urban Syst. 84, 101545 (2020).","journal-title":"Comput. Environ. Urban Syst."},{"key":"9347_CR64","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"525","DOI":"10.1016\/S0198-9715(01)00014-X","volume":"26","author":"EA Silva","year":"2002","unstructured":"Silva, E. A. & Clarke, K. C. Calibration of the SLEUTH urban growth model for Lisbon and Porto, Portugal. Comput. Environ. Urban Syst. 26, 525\u2013552 (2002).","journal-title":"Comput. Environ. Urban Syst."},{"key":"9347_CR65","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2331","DOI":"10.5194\/nhess-15-2331-2015","volume":"15","author":"I Sekovski","year":"2015","unstructured":"Sekovski, I. et al. Coupling scenarios of urban growth and flood hazards along the Emilia-Romagna coast (Italy). Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 15, 2331\u20132346 (2015).","journal-title":"Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci."},{"key":"9347_CR66","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"534","DOI":"10.1016\/j.landusepol.2015.07.004","volume":"48","author":"Y Sakieh","year":"2015","unstructured":"Sakieh, Y. et al. Evaluating the strategy of decentralized urban land-use planning in a developing region. Land Use Policy 48, 534\u2013551 (2015).","journal-title":"Land Use Policy"},{"key":"9347_CR67","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"302","DOI":"10.1111\/tgis.12047","volume":"18","author":"G Chaudhuri","year":"2014","unstructured":"Chaudhuri, G. & Clarke, K. C. Temporal Accuracy in Urban Growth forecasting: A study using the SLEUTH model. Trans. GIS 18, 302\u2013320 (2014).","journal-title":"Trans. GIS"},{"key":"9347_CR68","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"34","DOI":"10.1038\/s41597-019-0048-z","volume":"6","author":"Y Zhou","year":"2019","unstructured":"Zhou, Y., Varquez, A. C. G. & Kanda, M. High-resolution global urban growth projection based on multiple applications of the SLEUTH urban growth model. Sci. Data 6, 34\u201334 (2019).","journal-title":"Sci. Data"},{"key":"9347_CR69","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"344","DOI":"10.1016\/j.compenvurbsys.2017.04.005","volume":"64","author":"A Votsis","year":"2017","unstructured":"Votsis, A. Utilizing a cellular automaton model to explore the influence of coastal flood adaptation strategies on Helsinki\u2019s urbanization patterns. Comput. Environ. Urban Syst. 64, 344\u2013355 (2017).","journal-title":"Comput. Environ. Urban Syst."},{"key":"9347_CR70","first-page":"1011","volume":"48","author":"GM Sarica","year":"2021","unstructured":"Sarica, G. M., Zhu, T., Jian, W., Lo, E. Y. M. & Pan, T. C. Spatio-temporal dynamics of flood exposure in Shenzhen from present to future. Environ. Plan. B 48, 1011 (2021).","journal-title":"Environ. Plan. B"},{"key":"9347_CR71","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"127","DOI":"10.1016\/j.apgeog.2012.11.005","volume":"37","author":"J He","year":"2013","unstructured":"He, J. et al. A counterfactual scenario simulation approach for assessing the impact of farmland preservation policies on urban sprawl and food security in a major grain-producing area of China. Appl. Geogr. 37, 127\u2013138 (2013).","journal-title":"Appl. Geogr."},{"key":"9347_CR72","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"38","DOI":"10.1016\/j.landusepol.2017.02.027","volume":"64","author":"K Deilami","year":"2017","unstructured":"Deilami, K. & Kamruzzaman, Md. Modelling the urban heat island effect of smart growth policy scenarios in Brisbane. Land Use Policy 64, 38\u201355 (2017).","journal-title":"Land Use Policy"},{"key":"9347_CR73","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"974","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2017.12.062","volume":"622\u2013623","author":"X Sun","year":"2018","unstructured":"Sun, X., Crittenden, J. C., Li, F., Lu, Z. & Dou, X. Urban expansion simulation and the spatio-temporal changes of ecosystem services, a case study in Atlanta Metropolitan area, USA. Sci. Total Environ. 622\u2013623, 974\u2013987 (2018).","journal-title":"Sci. Total Environ."},{"key":"9347_CR74","first-page":"1056","volume":"30","author":"BN Haack","year":"2006","unstructured":"Haack, B. N. & Rafter, A. Urban growth analysis and modeling in the Kathmandu Valley, Nepal. Solid Waste Manag. People Matter 30, 1056\u20131065 (2006).","journal-title":"Solid Waste Manag. People Matter"},{"key":"9347_CR75","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"140","DOI":"10.1016\/j.landurbplan.2011.12.007","volume":"105","author":"RB Thapa","year":"2012","unstructured":"Thapa, R. B. & Murayama, Y. Scenario based urban growth allocation in Kathmandu Valley, Nepal. Landsc. Urban Plan. 105, 140\u2013148 (2012).","journal-title":"Landsc. Urban Plan."},{"key":"9347_CR76","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2102","DOI":"10.1109\/JSTARS.2013.2271445","volume":"6","author":"M Pesaresi","year":"2013","unstructured":"Pesaresi, M. et al. A global human settlement layer from optical HR\/VHR RS data: Concept and first results. IEEE J. Sel. Top. Appl. Earth Obs. Remote Sens. 6, 2102\u20132131 (2013).","journal-title":"IEEE J. Sel. Top. Appl. Earth Obs. Remote Sens."},{"key":"9347_CR77","unstructured":"Corbane, C., Florczyk, A., Pesaresi, M., Politis, P. & Syrris, V. GHS-BUILT R2018A: GHS Built-up Grid, Derived from Landsat, Multitemporal (1975\u20131990\u20132000\u20132014). (2018)."},{"key":"9347_CR78","unstructured":"Corbane, C., Sabo, F., Politis, P. & Syrris, V. GHS-BUILT-S2 R2020A: GHS Built-up Grid, Derived from Sentinel-2 Global Image Composite for Reference Year 2018 Using Convolutional Neural Networks (GHS-S2Net). (2020)."},{"key":"9347_CR79","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"6697","DOI":"10.1007\/s00521-020-05449-7","volume":"33","author":"C Corbane","year":"2021","unstructured":"Corbane, C. et al. Convolutional neural networks for global human settlements mapping from Sentinel-2 satellite imagery. Neural Comput. Appl. 33, 6697\u20136720 (2021).","journal-title":"Neural Comput. Appl."},{"key":"9347_CR80","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"29","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1467-9671.2007.01031.x","volume":"11","author":"C Dietzel","year":"2007","unstructured":"Dietzel, C. & Clarke, K. C. Toward optimal calibration of the SLEUTH land use change model. Trans. GIS 11, 29\u201345 (2007).","journal-title":"Trans. GIS"},{"key":"9347_CR81","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1367","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecolmodel.2011.01.017","volume":"222","author":"J van Vliet","year":"2011","unstructured":"van Vliet, J., Bregt, A. K. & Hagen-Zanker, A. Revisiting Kappa to account for change in the accuracy assessment of land-use change models. Ecol. Model. 222, 1367\u20131375 (2011).","journal-title":"Ecol. Model."},{"key":"9347_CR82","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"4407","DOI":"10.1080\/01431161.2011.552923","volume":"32","author":"RG Pontius","year":"2011","unstructured":"Pontius, R. G. & Millones, M. Death to Kappa: Birth of quantity disagreement and allocation disagreement for accuracy assessment. Int. J. Remote Sens. 32, 4407\u20134429 (2011).","journal-title":"Int. J. Remote Sens."},{"key":"9347_CR83","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"346","DOI":"10.1016\/j.envsoft.2004.11.013","volume":"21","author":"H Visser","year":"2006","unstructured":"Visser, H. & de Nijs, T. The map comparison kit. Environ. Model. Softw. 21, 346\u2013358 (2006).","journal-title":"Environ. Model. Softw."},{"key":"9347_CR84","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"134486","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2019.134486","volume":"711","author":"J Ran","year":"2020","unstructured":"Ran, J., MacGillivray, B. H., Gong, Y. & Hales, T. C. The application of frameworks for measuring social vulnerability and resilience to geophysical hazards within developing countries: A systematic review and narrative synthesis. Sci. Total Environ. 711, 134486 (2020).","journal-title":"Sci. Total Environ."},{"key":"9347_CR85","unstructured":"United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR). Terminology on Disaster Risk Reduction. (2009)."},{"key":"9347_CR86","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"713","DOI":"10.1111\/0004-5608.00219","volume":"90","author":"SL Cutter","year":"2000","unstructured":"Cutter, S. L., Mitchell, J. T. & Scott, M. S. Revealing the vulnerability of people and places: A case study of Georgetown County, South Carolina. Ann. Assoc. Am. Geogr. 90, 713\u2013737 (2000).","journal-title":"Ann. Assoc. Am. Geogr."},{"key":"9347_CR87","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"42","DOI":"10.1016\/j.envsci.2014.10.013","volume":"47","author":"EE Koks","year":"2015","unstructured":"Koks, E. E., Jongman, B., Husby, T. G. & Botzen, W. J. W. Combining hazard, exposure and social vulnerability to provide lessons for flood risk management. Environ. Sci. Policy 47, 42\u201352 (2015).","journal-title":"Environ. Sci. Policy"},{"key":"9347_CR88","unstructured":"United Nations Development Programme. Human Development Report 2020: The Next Frontier: Human Development and the Anthropocene. (2020)."},{"key":"9347_CR89","unstructured":"Inter American Development Bank. Indicators for disaster risks management: program for Latin America and Caribbean. (2010)."},{"key":"9347_CR90","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"325","DOI":"10.1007\/s11069-012-0152-2","volume":"63","author":"E Tate","year":"2012","unstructured":"Tate, E. Social vulnerability indices: A comparative assessment using uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. Nat. Hazards 63, 325\u2013347 (2012).","journal-title":"Nat. Hazards"},{"key":"9347_CR91","unstructured":"Burton, C. & Toquica, M. Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Social Vulnerability Map (version 2020.1). (2020)."},{"key":"9347_CR92","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1663","DOI":"10.5194\/nhess-20-1663-2020","volume":"20","author":"D Contreras","year":"2020","unstructured":"Contreras, D., Chamorro, A. & Wilkinson, S. Review article: The spatial dimension in the assessment of urban socio-economic vulnerability related to geohazards. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 20, 1663\u20131687 (2020).","journal-title":"Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci."},{"key":"9347_CR93","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"651","DOI":"10.1080\/13669877.2014.910689","volume":"18","author":"C Guillard-Gon\u00e7alves","year":"2015","unstructured":"Guillard-Gon\u00e7alves, C., Cutter, S. L., Emrich, C. T. & Z\u00eazere, J. L. Application of Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) and delineation of natural risk zones in Greater Lisbon, Portugal. J. Risk Res. 18, 651\u2013674 (2015).","journal-title":"J. Risk Res."},{"key":"9347_CR94","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1603","DOI":"10.1007\/s11069-013-0888-3","volume":"70","author":"TH Siagian","year":"2014","unstructured":"Siagian, T. H., Purhadi, P., Suhartono, S. & Ritonga, H. Social vulnerability to natural hazards in Indonesia: Driving factors and policy implications. Nat. Hazards 70, 1603\u20131617 (2014).","journal-title":"Nat. Hazards"},{"key":"9347_CR95","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"101872","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijdrr.2020.101872","volume":"50","author":"DJ Roncancio","year":"2020","unstructured":"Roncancio, D. J., Cutter, S. L. & Nardocci, A. C. Social vulnerability in Colombia. Int. J. Disaster Risk Reduct. 50, 101872 (2020).","journal-title":"Int. J. Disaster Risk Reduct."},{"key":"9347_CR96","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"111","DOI":"10.1007\/s13753-016-0090-9","volume":"7","author":"BM de LoyolaHummell","year":"2016","unstructured":"de LoyolaHummell, B. M., Cutter, S. L. & Emrich, C. T. Social vulnerability to natural hazards in Brazil. Int. J. Disaster Risk Sci. 7, 111\u2013122 (2016).","journal-title":"Int. J. Disaster Risk Sci."},{"key":"9347_CR97","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"103","DOI":"10.1007\/s13753-018-0192-7","volume":"10","author":"SK Aksha","year":"2019","unstructured":"Aksha, S. K., Juran, L., Resler, L. M. & Zhang, Y. An analysis of social vulnerability to natural hazards in nepal using a modified social vulnerability index. Int. J. Disaster Risk Sci. 10, 103\u2013116 (2019).","journal-title":"Int. J. Disaster Risk Sci."},{"key":"9347_CR98","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"101821","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijdrr.2020.101821","volume":"50","author":"AMB Nafeh","year":"2020","unstructured":"Nafeh, A. M. B., Beldjoudi, H., Yelles, A. K. & Monteiro, R. Development of a seismic social vulnerability model for northern Algeria. Int. J. Disaster Risk Reduct. 50, 101821 (2020).","journal-title":"Int. J. Disaster Risk Reduct."},{"key":"9347_CR99","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2313","DOI":"10.5194\/nhess-17-2313-2017","volume":"17","author":"D Gautam","year":"2017","unstructured":"Gautam, D. Assessment of social vulnerability to natural hazards in Nepal. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 17, 2313\u20132320 (2017).","journal-title":"Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci."},{"key":"9347_CR100","unstructured":"Kathmandu Valley Development Authority. Vision 2035 and Beyond: 20 Years Strategic Development Master Plan (2015\u20132035) for Kathmandu Valley. (2016)."},{"key":"9347_CR101","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"52","DOI":"10.3390\/land6030052","volume":"6","author":"B Pickard","year":"2017","unstructured":"Pickard, B., Gray, J. & Meentemeyer, R. Comparing quantity, allocation and configuration accuracy of multiple land change models. Land 6, 52 (2017).","journal-title":"Land"},{"key":"9347_CR102","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2301","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.0710375105","volume":"105","author":"SL Cutter","year":"2008","unstructured":"Cutter, S. L. & Finch, C. Temporal and spatial changes in social vulnerability to natural hazards. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 105, 2301\u20132306 (2008).","journal-title":"Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci."},{"key":"9347_CR103","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"614","DOI":"10.1111\/risa.12193","volume":"34","author":"Y Zhou","year":"2014","unstructured":"Zhou, Y., Li, N., Wu, W., Wu, J. & Shi, P. Local spatial and temporal factors influencing population and societal vulnerability to natural disasters. Risk Anal. 34, 614\u2013639 (2014).","journal-title":"Risk Anal."},{"key":"9347_CR104","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"249","DOI":"10.1007\/s13753-018-0168-7","volume":"9","author":"I Frigerio","year":"2018","unstructured":"Frigerio, I., Carnelli, F., Cabinio, M. & De Amicis, M. Spatiotemporal pattern of social vulnerability in Italy. Int. J. Disaster Risk Sci. 9, 249\u2013262 (2018).","journal-title":"Int. J. Disaster Risk Sci."},{"key":"9347_CR105","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"002388","DOI":"10.1029\/2021EF002388","volume":"10","author":"G Cremen","year":"2022","unstructured":"Cremen, G., Galasso, C. & McCloskey, J. A simulation-based framework for earthquake risk-informed and people-centered decision making on future urban planning. Earths Future 10, 002388 (2022).","journal-title":"Earths Future"},{"key":"9347_CR106","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"3","DOI":"10.1177\/0309132519895305","volume":"45","author":"Y Liu","year":"2021","unstructured":"Liu, Y., Batty, M., Wang, S. & Corcoran, J. Modelling urban change with cellular automata: Contemporary issues and future research directions. Prog. Hum. Geogr. 45, 3\u201324 (2021).","journal-title":"Prog. Hum. Geogr."}],"container-title":["Scientific Reports"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-022-09347-x.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-022-09347-x","content-type":"text\/html","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-022-09347-x.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2024,9,22]],"date-time":"2024-09-22T02:09:39Z","timestamp":1726970979000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-022-09347-x"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2022,4,12]]},"references-count":106,"journal-issue":{"issue":"1","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,12]]}},"alternative-id":["9347"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41598-022-09347-x","relation":{},"ISSN":["2045-2322"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2045-2322","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2022,4,12]]},"assertion":[{"value":"23 December 2021","order":1,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"21 March 2022","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"12 April 2022","order":3,"name":"first_online","label":"First Online","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"The authors declare no competing interests.","order":1,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Competing interests"}}],"article-number":"6152"}}