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In this study, we used the Thailand malaria surveillance database to develop hierarchical spatiotemporal models to analyze retrospective patterns and predict <jats:italic>Plasmodium falciparum<\/jats:italic> and <jats:italic>Plasmodium vivax<\/jats:italic> malaria incidences at the provincial level. We first describe the available data, explain the hierarchical spatiotemporal framework underlying the analysis, and then display the results of fitting various space\u2013time formulations to the malaria data with the different model selection metrics. The Bayesian model selection process assessed the sensitivity of different specifications to obtain the optimal models. To assess whether malaria could be eliminated by 2024 per Thailand\u2019s National Malaria Elimination Strategy, 2017\u20132026, we used the best-fitted model to project the estimated cases for 2022\u20132028. The study results based on the models revealed different predicted estimates between both species. The model for <jats:italic>P. falciparum<\/jats:italic> suggested that zero <jats:italic>P. falciparum<\/jats:italic> cases might be possible by 2024, in contrast to the model for <jats:italic>P. vivax<\/jats:italic>, wherein zero <jats:italic>P. vivax<\/jats:italic> cases might not be reached. Innovative approaches in the <jats:italic>P. vivax<\/jats:italic>-specific control and elimination plans must be implemented to reach zero <jats:italic>P. vivax<\/jats:italic> and consequently declare Thailand as a malaria-free country.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-023-35007-9","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,5,15]],"date-time":"2023-05-15T12:07:42Z","timestamp":1684152462000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":13,"title":["Projecting malaria elimination in Thailand using Bayesian hierarchical spatiotemporal models"],"prefix":"10.1038","volume":"13","author":[{"given":"Chawarat","family":"Rotejanaprasert","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Saranath","family":"Lawpoolsri","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Patiwat","family":"Sa-angchai","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Amnat","family":"Khamsiriwatchara","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Chantana","family":"Padungtod","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Rungrawee","family":"Tipmontree","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Lynette","family":"Menezes","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jetsumon","family":"Sattabongkot","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Liwang","family":"Cui","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jaranit","family":"Kaewkungwal","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,5,13]]},"reference":[{"key":"35007_CR1","unstructured":"Bureau of Vector Borne Diseases, Department of Disease Control, Ministry of Public Health, Thailand. 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