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This study aimed to investigate the long- and short-term asymmetric effects of meteorological factors on HFRS and establish an early forecasting system using autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) models. Between 2004 and 2019, HFRS exhibited a declining trend (average annual percentage change\u2009=\u2009\u2212\u00a09.568%, 95% CI \u2212\u00a016.165 to \u2212\u00a02.451%) with a bimodal seasonality. A long-term asymmetric influence of aggregate precipitation (AP) (Wald long-run asymmetry [WLR]\u2009=\u2009\u2212\u00a02.697, <jats:italic>P<\/jats:italic>\u2009=\u20090.008) and aggregate sunshine hours (ASH) (WLR\u2009=\u20092.561, <jats:italic>P<\/jats:italic>\u2009=\u20090.011) on HFRS was observed. Additionally, a short-term asymmetric impact of AP (Wald short-run symmetry [WSR]\u2009=\u2009\u2212\u00a02.419, <jats:italic>P<\/jats:italic>\u2009=\u20090.017), ASH (WSR\u2009=\u20092.075, <jats:italic>P<\/jats:italic>\u2009=\u20090.04), mean wind velocity (MWV) (WSR\u2009=\u2009\u2212\u00a04.594, <jats:italic>P<\/jats:italic>\u2009&lt;\u20090.001), and mean relative humidity (MRH) (WSR\u2009=\u2009\u2212\u00a02.515, <jats:italic>P<\/jats:italic>\u2009=\u20090.013) on HFRS was identified. Also, HFRS demonstrated notable variations in response to positive and negative changes in \u2206MRH(\u2212), \u2206AP(+), \u2206MWV(+), and \u2206ASH(\u2212) at 0\u20132\u00a0month delays over the short term. In terms of forecasting, the NARDL model demonstrated lower error rates compared to ARDL. Meteorological parameters have substantial long- and short-term asymmetric and\/or symmetric impacts on HFRS. Merging NARDL model with meteorological factors can enhance early warning systems and support proactive measures to mitigate the disease's impact.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-024-58023-9","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,4,28]],"date-time":"2024-04-28T14:01:22Z","timestamp":1714312882000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":7,"title":["Asymmetric impact of climatic parameters on hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Shandong using a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model"],"prefix":"10.1038","volume":"14","author":[{"given":"Yongbin","family":"Wang","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ziyue","family":"Liang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Siyu","family":"Qing","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yue","family":"Xi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Chunjie","family":"Xu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Fei","family":"Lin","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,4,28]]},"reference":[{"key":"58023_CR1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.3390\/v15020561","volume":"15","author":"A Sehgal","year":"2023","unstructured":"Sehgal, A. et al. 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