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Although the recent incursion of HPAI H5N1 Clade 2.3.4.4b into North America calls for emergency response and planning given the unprecedented scale, readily available data-driven models are lacking. Here, we provide high resolution spatial and temporal transmission risk models for the contiguous United States. Considering virus host ecology, we included weekly species-level wild waterfowl (Anatidae) abundance and endemic low pathogenic avian influenza virus prevalence metrics in combination with number of poultry farms per commodity type and relative biosecurity risks at two spatial scales: 3\u00a0km and county-level. Spillover risk varied across the annual cycle of waterfowl migration and some locations exhibited persistent risk throughout the year given higher poultry production. Validation using wild bird introduction events identified by phylogenetic analysis from 2022 to 2023 HPAI poultry outbreaks indicate strong model performance. The modular nature of our approach lends itself to building upon updated datasets under evolving conditions, testing hypothetical scenarios, or customizing results with proprietary data. This research demonstrates an adaptive approach for developing models to inform preparedness and response as novel outbreaks occur, viruses evolve, and additional data become available.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-024-64912-w","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,6,20]],"date-time":"2024-06-20T04:03:19Z","timestamp":1718856199000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":32,"title":["Using an adaptive modeling framework to identify avian influenza spillover risk at the wild-domestic interface"],"prefix":"10.1038","volume":"14","author":[{"given":"Diann J.","family":"Prosser","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Cody M.","family":"Kent","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jeffery D.","family":"Sullivan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Kelly A.","family":"Patyk","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Mary-Jane","family":"McCool","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Mia Kim","family":"Torchetti","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Kristina","family":"Lantz","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jennifer M.","family":"Mullinax","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,6,20]]},"reference":[{"key":"64912_CR1","first-page":"61","volume":"47","author":"DE Stallknecht","year":"2003","unstructured":"Stallknecht, D. 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Evidence for a fundamental change in the infection dynamics of highly pathogenic avian influenza in Europe, 2021. mBio 13, 22 (2022).","journal-title":"mBio"},{"key":"64912_CR4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"212","DOI":"10.3390\/v13020212","volume":"13","author":"JH Verhagen","year":"2021","unstructured":"Verhagen, J. H., Fouchier, R. A. M. & Lewis, N. Highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses at the wild-domestic bird interface in Europe: Future directions for research and surveillance. Viruses 13, 212 (2021).","journal-title":"Viruses"},{"key":"64912_CR5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"22171","DOI":"10.1002\/jwmg.22171","volume":"86","author":"AM Ramey","year":"2022","unstructured":"Ramey, A. M. et al. Highly pathogenic avian influenza is an emerging disease threat to wild birds in North America. J. Wildl. Manag. 86, 22171 (2022).","journal-title":"J. Wildl. Manag."},{"key":"64912_CR6","unstructured":"USDA. 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