{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,5]],"date-time":"2026-08-05T09:10:19Z","timestamp":1785921019880,"version":"3.56.0"},"reference-count":32,"publisher":"Springer Science and Business Media LLC","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,1,23]],"date-time":"2025-01-23T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1737590400000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,1,23]],"date-time":"2025-01-23T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1737590400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000038","name":"Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["DH-2022-0047"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["DH-2022-0047"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000038","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["link.springer.com"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Sci Rep"],"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n          <jats:p>Uncontrolled reentries of space objects create a collision risk with aircraft in flight. While the probability of a strike is low, the consequences could be catastrophic. Moreover, the risk is rising due to increases in both reentries and flights. In response, national authorities may choose to preemptively close airspace during reentry events; some have already done so. We determine the probability for a rocket body reentry within airspace over a range of air traffic densities. The highest-density regions, around major airports, have a 0.8% chance per year of being affected by an uncontrolled reentry. This rate rises to 26% for larger but still busy areas of airspace, such as that found in the northeastern United States, northern Europe, or around major cities in the Asia-Pacific region. For a given reentry, the collision risk in the underlying airspace increases with the air traffic density. However, the economic consequences of flight delays also increase should that airspace be closed. This situation puts national authorities in a dilemma\u2014to close airspace or not\u2014with safety and economic implications either way. The collision risk could be mitigated if controlled reentries into the ocean were required for all missions. However, over 2300 rocket bodies are already in orbit and will eventually reenter in an uncontrolled manner. Airspace authorities will face the challenge of uncontrolled reentries for decades to come.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-024-84001-2","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,1,23]],"date-time":"2025-01-23T16:17:40Z","timestamp":1737649060000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":9,"title":["Airspace closures due to reentering space objects"],"prefix":"10.1038","volume":"15","author":[{"given":"Ewan","family":"Wright","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Aaron","family":"Boley","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Michael","family":"Byers","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,1,23]]},"reference":[{"key":"84001_CR1","unstructured":"Wright, E., Boley, A. & Byers, M. 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Safety Information Bulletin 2022-07 (2022). https:\/\/ad.easa.europa.eu\/ad\/2022-07 [Accessed 10 July 2024]."},{"key":"84001_CR6","unstructured":"Statista Number of flights performed by the global airline industry from 2004 to 2021, with forecasts until 2023 (2023). https:\/\/www.statista.com\/statistics\/564769\/airline-industry-number-of-flights\/ [Accessed 10 July 2024]."},{"key":"84001_CR7","unstructured":"International Energy Agency. World air passenger traffic evolution, 1980\u20132020 (2020). https:\/\/www.iea.org\/data-and-statistics\/charts\/world-air-passenger-traffic-evolution-1980-2020 [Accessed 10 July 2024]."},{"key":"84001_CR8","unstructured":"European Space Agency. ESA\u2019s Annual Space Environment Report (2023)."},{"issue":"3","key":"84001_CR9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"414","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jsse.2022.04.003","volume":"9","author":"C Pardini","year":"2022","unstructured":"Pardini, C. & Anselmo, L. The kinetic casualty risk of uncontrolled re-entries before and after the transition to small satellites and mega-constellations. J. Space Saf. Eng. 9(3), 414\u2013426. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.jsse.2022.04.003 (2022).","journal-title":"J. Space Saf. Eng."},{"key":"84001_CR10","unstructured":"McDowell, J. Space Activities in 2023 (2024). https:\/\/planet4589.org\/space\/papers\/space22.pdf [Accessed 10 July 2024]."},{"key":"84001_CR11","unstructured":"Celestrak.org. SATCAT Raw satcat data (2024). https:\/\/celestrak.org\/satcat\/boxscore.php [Accessed 10 July 2024]."},{"key":"84001_CR12","unstructured":"International Civil Aviation Organisation. Remarks by the Secretary General of the ICAO to the joint workshop on the risks to airplanes in flight from re-entering space debris. Available online at: (2023). https:\/\/www.icao.int\/secretariat\/SecretaryGeneral\/Documents\/Addresses%20and%20Messages\/20230217_SG-SPEECH-SpaceDerbisWorkshop.pdf [Accessed 10 July 2024]."},{"key":"84001_CR13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2514\/6.2008-6891","author":"R Patera","year":"2008","unstructured":"Patera, R. Risk to commercial aircraft from reentering space debris. AIAA Atmos. Flight Mech. Conf. Exhibit. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.2514\/6.2008-6891 (2008).","journal-title":"AIAA Atmos. Flight Mech. Conf. Exhibit."},{"key":"84001_CR14","unstructured":"Range Commanders Council. Common Risk Criteria for National Test Ranges: Inert Debris. National Technical Reports Library, NM 88002-5110  (2000)."},{"key":"84001_CR15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Wilde, P. Impact Testing and Improvements in Aircraft Vulnerability Modeling for Range Safety, 7th IAASS Conference, Germany (2014).","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-319-15982-9_66"},{"key":"84001_CR16","unstructured":"Range Commanders Council. Common Risk Criteria Standards for National Test Ranges (Supplement, RCC 321-20, 2020)."},{"key":"84001_CR17","unstructured":"Federal Aviation Administration. Report to Congress: Risk Associated with Reentry Disposal of Satellites from Proposed Large Constellations in Low Earth Orbit (2023)."},{"key":"84001_CR18","unstructured":"International Association for the Advancement of Space Safety. Making Space Safe and Sustainable (2021). https:\/\/www.iaass.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/Making-Space-Safe-and-Sustainable-A4-v1-3.pdf [Accessed 10 July 2024]."},{"key":"84001_CR19","unstructured":"National Space Operations Centre & UK Space Agency. How we protected the UK in May 2024 (2024). https:\/\/www.gov.uk\/government\/publications\/how-we-protected-the-uk-and-space-in-may-2024 [Accessed 10 July 2024]."},{"key":"84001_CR20","unstructured":"UK Department for Transport. Informing UK launch insurance policy, and assessing risk to civil aviation from re-entry debris arising from UK spacecraft and launch vehicle debris (2023). https:\/\/www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk\/Notice\/665bbbf5-b4dc-48ce-8ee1-d121d301c267 [Accessed 10 July 2024]."},{"key":"84001_CR21","unstructured":"Emanuelli, M. & Lips, T. Risk to Aircraft from Space Vehicle Debris. UN COPUOS Scientific and Technical Subcommittee presentation (2015). https:\/\/www.unoosa.org\/pdf\/pres\/stsc2015\/tech-29E.pdf [Accessed 10 July 2024]."},{"key":"84001_CR22","unstructured":"International Civil Aviation Organization. Passenger air traffic surpasses pre-pandemic levels (2024). https:\/\/www.icao.int\/Newsroom\/Pages\/Passenger-air-traffic-surpasses-pre-pandemic-levels.aspx [Accessed 10 July 2024]."},{"key":"84001_CR23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1093","DOI":"10.1038\/s41550-022-01718-8","volume":"6","author":"M Byers","year":"2022","unstructured":"Byers, M., Wright, E., Boley, A. & Byers, C. Unnecessary risks created by uncontrolled rocket reentries. Nat. Astron. 6, 1093\u20131097 (2022).","journal-title":"Nat. Astron."},{"key":"84001_CR24","unstructured":"Federal Aviation Administration. FAA Proposed Rule Would Reduce the Growth of Debris from Commercial Space Vehicles (2023). https:\/\/www.faa.gov\/newsroom\/faa-proposed-rule-would-reduce-growth-debris-commercial-space-vehicles [Accessed 10 July 2024]."},{"key":"84001_CR25","unstructured":"Wright, E., Boley, A. & Byers, M. Rocket Body Reentry Trends. 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Montreal Recommendations on Aviation Safety and Uncontrolled Space Object Reentries (2023). https:\/\/outerspaceinstitute.ca\/osisite\/wp-content\/uploads\/Montreal-Recommendations-on-Aviation-Safety-and-Uncontrolled-Space-Object-Reentries.pdf [Accessed 10 July 2024]."},{"key":"84001_CR29","unstructured":"Ailor, W. H. Large Constellation Disposal Hazards (The Aerospace Corporation, 2020)."},{"key":"84001_CR30","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"74","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jsse.2024.01.004","volume":"11","author":"E Wright","year":"2023","unstructured":"Wright, E., Boley, A. & Byers, M. Improving casualty risk estimates for uncontrolled rocket body reentries. J. Space Saf. Eng. 11, 74\u201379 (2023).","journal-title":"J. Space Saf. Eng."},{"key":"84001_CR31","unstructured":"McDowell, J. GCAT: General Catalogue of Artificial Space Objects (2023). https:\/\/planet4589.org\/space\/gcat\/ [Accessed 14 March 2024]."},{"key":"84001_CR32","unstructured":"ADS-B Exchange . Historical Data (2024). https:\/\/www.adsbexchange.com\/products\/historical-data\/ [Accessed 11 Mar 2024]."}],"container-title":["Scientific Reports"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-024-84001-2.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-024-84001-2","content-type":"text\/html","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-024-84001-2.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,1,23]],"date-time":"2025-01-23T16:17:53Z","timestamp":1737649073000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-024-84001-2"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2025,1,23]]},"references-count":32,"journal-issue":{"issue":"1","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,12]]}},"alternative-id":["84001"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41598-024-84001-2","relation":{},"ISSN":["2045-2322"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2045-2322","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2025,1,23]]},"assertion":[{"value":"15 September 2024","order":1,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"18 December 2024","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"23 January 2025","order":3,"name":"first_online","label":"First Online","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"order":1,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Declarations"}},{"value":"The authors declare no competing interests.","order":2,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Competing interests"}}],"article-number":"2966"}}