{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,7]],"date-time":"2026-02-07T14:26:08Z","timestamp":1770474368845,"version":"3.49.0"},"reference-count":13,"publisher":"Springer Science and Business Media LLC","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,2,15]],"date-time":"2025-02-15T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1739577600000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,2,15]],"date-time":"2025-02-15T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1739577600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["link.springer.com"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Sci Rep"],"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n          <jats:p>The Biden Administration raised its Social Cost of Carbon (SCC) estimate about fivefold based in part on global crop yield decline projections estimated on a meta-analysis data base first published in 2014. The data set contains 1722 records but half were missing at least one variable (usually the change in CO<jats:sub>2<\/jats:sub>) so only 862 were available for multivariate regression modeling. By re-examining the underlying sources I was able to recover 360 records and increase the sample size to 1222. Reanalysis on the larger data set yields very different results. While the original smaller data set implies yield declines of all crop types even at low levels of warming, on the full data set global average yield changes are zero or positive even out to 5\u00a0\u00b0C warming.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-025-90254-2","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,2,15]],"date-time":"2025-02-15T06:25:21Z","timestamp":1739600721000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":3,"title":["Extended crop yield meta-analysis data do not support upward SCC revision"],"prefix":"10.1038","volume":"15","author":[{"given":"Ross","family":"McKitrick","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,2,15]]},"reference":[{"key":"90254_CR1","unstructured":"US Environmental Protection Agency. Supplementary Material for the Regulatory Impact Analysis for the Final Rulemaking, \u201cStandards of Performance for New, Reconstructed, and Modified Sources and Emissions Guidelines for Existing Sources: Oil and Natural Gas Sector Climate Review\u201d, EPA Report on the Social Cost of Greenhouse Gases: Estimates Incorporating Recent Scientific Advances, November 2023 (2023). https:\/\/www.epa.gov\/system\/files\/documents\/2023-12\/epa_scghg_2023_report_final.pdf accessed February 28, 2024."},{"key":"90254_CR2","unstructured":"US Interagency Working Group on Social Cost of Carbon (IWG). Technical Support Document: Technical update of the social cost of carbon for regulatory impact analysis Under Executive Order 12866. United States Government (2013)."},{"key":"90254_CR3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1607","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467-017-01792-x","volume":"8","author":"FC Moore","year":"2017","unstructured":"Moore, F. C., Baldos, U., Hertel, T. & Diaz, D. New science of climate change impacts on agriculture implies higher social cost of carbon. Nat. Commun. 8, 1607. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41467-017-01792-x (2017).","journal-title":"Nat. Commun."},{"issue":"4","key":"90254_CR4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"287","DOI":"10.1038\/nclimate2153","volume":"4","author":"AJ Challinor","year":"2014","unstructured":"Challinor, A. J. et al. A meta-analysis of crop yield under climate change and adaptation. Nat. Clim Change 4(4), 287 (2014).","journal-title":"Nat. Clim Change"},{"key":"90254_CR5","unstructured":"Taylor, C. & Schlenker, W. Environmental drivers of agricultural productivity growth: CO2 fertilization of US field crops. National Bureau of Economic Research Working paper 29320 (2023). http:\/\/www.nber.org\/paper\/w29320"},{"key":"90254_CR6","first-page":"923","volume-title":"Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change","author":"P Forster","year":"2021","unstructured":"Forster, P. et al. The earth\u2019s energy budget, climate feedbacks, and climate sensitivity. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds Masson-Delmotte, V. et al.) 923\u20131054 (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2021)."},{"key":"90254_CR7","unstructured":"https:\/\/gml.noaa.gov\/webdata\/ccgg\/trends\/co2\/co2_annmean_mlo.txt"},{"key":"90254_CR8","unstructured":"Table 6.2 in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2001) Radiative Forcing of Climate Change. Chapter 6 in the Third Assessment Report (Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis Chapter 6, (eds Houghton, J.T.,Y. et al.]. (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2001)."},{"key":"90254_CR9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1417","DOI":"10.5194\/acp-11-1417-2011","volume":"11","author":"M Meinshausen","year":"2011","unstructured":"Meinshausen, M., Raper, S. C. B. & Wigley, T. M. L. (2011) Emulating coupled atmosphere-ocean and carbon cycle models with a simpler model, MAGICC6\u2014part 1: Model description and calibration. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 11, 1417\u20131456. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5194\/acp-11-1417-2011 (2011).","journal-title":"Atmos. Chem. Phys."},{"key":"90254_CR10","unstructured":"IPCC, 2021: Summary for Policymakers. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds Masson-Delmotte, V. et al.] Table 2.1."},{"key":"90254_CR11","volume-title":"R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing","author":"R Core Team","year":"2023","unstructured":"R Core Team. R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing (R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, 2023)."},{"key":"90254_CR12","unstructured":"Blair, G., et al. Package \u2018estimatr\u2019 (2022). https:\/\/cran.r-project.org\/package=estimatr Accessed June 2, 2013."},{"key":"90254_CR13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","unstructured":"McKitrick, R.Data and code to accompany \"Extended Crop Yield Meta-analysis Data do not Support Upward SCC Revision\"\u201d, Mendeley Data, V1, https:\/\/doi.org\/10.17632\/w6rpyk3gyc.1 (2025). https:\/\/data.mendeley.com\/datasets\/w6rpyk3gyc\/1","DOI":"10.17632\/w6rpyk3gyc.1"}],"container-title":["Scientific Reports"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-025-90254-2.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-025-90254-2","content-type":"text\/html","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-025-90254-2.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,4,3]],"date-time":"2025-04-03T06:12:07Z","timestamp":1743660727000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-025-90254-2"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2025,2,15]]},"references-count":13,"journal-issue":{"issue":"1","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,12]]}},"alternative-id":["90254"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41598-025-90254-2","relation":{},"ISSN":["2045-2322"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2045-2322","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2025,2,15]]},"assertion":[{"value":"24 June 2024","order":1,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"11 February 2025","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"15 February 2025","order":3,"name":"first_online","label":"First Online","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"order":1,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Declarations"}},{"value":"The author is an unpaid Senior Fellow of the Fraser Institute and an unpaid member of the Academic Advisory Council of the Global Warming Policy Foundation. Neither organization had any knowledge of, involvement with or input into this research. The author has provided paid or unpaid advisory services to government and private sector entities in the law, manufacturing, distilling, communications, policy analysis and technology sectors. None of these entities had any knowledge of, involvement with or input into this research.","order":2,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Competing interests"}}],"article-number":"5575"}}