{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,21]],"date-time":"2026-08-21T12:10:53Z","timestamp":1787314253069,"version":"build-2736575974"},"reference-count":16,"publisher":"Springer Science and Business Media LLC","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,5,6]],"date-time":"2025-05-06T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1746489600000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,5,6]],"date-time":"2025-05-06T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1746489600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"}],"funder":[{"name":"The authors would like to acknowledge Deanship of Graduate Studies and Scientific Research, Taif University for funding this work."},{"name":"MJT was funded by a joint BBSRC\/NSF EEID grant","award":["BB\/T004312\/1"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["BB\/T004312\/1"]}]},{"name":"MJT was funded by a joint BBSRC\/NSF EEID grant","award":["BB\/T004312\/1"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["BB\/T004312\/1"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["link.springer.com"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Sci Rep"],"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>\n                    In May 2022, Mpox outbreaks emerged in regions where the virus is not traditionally prevalent. This study estimates the mean incubation period, serial interval and the extent of presymptomatic transmission in the Arab Gulf Countries (AGC). The effective reproduction number (\n                    <jats:inline-formula>\n                      <jats:tex-math>$$R_e$$<\/jats:tex-math>\n                    <\/jats:inline-formula>\n                    ) is also calculated, as well as the degree of heterogeneity (\n                    <jats:inline-formula>\n                      <jats:tex-math>$$K$$<\/jats:tex-math>\n                    <\/jats:inline-formula>\n                    ), using the instant-individual heterogeneity transmission model. We analyze data from 41 confirmed cases for which we have complete information, estimating the mean incubation period using gamma, Weibull and lognormal distributions, with respective means of 8.52 (95% CI 7.26\u20139.98), 8.57 (95% CI 7.28\u201310.01), and 8.64 (95% CI 7.23\u201310.26) days. The mean serial interval, based on 31 case pairs, was 7.19 days (95% CI 4.11\u201312.95), 7.16 days (95% CI 5.80\u20138.90), and 10.0 days (95% CI 6.30\u201316.3) for the gamma, Weibull, and lognormal distributions, respectively. The Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) validated the best-fitting models. The serial intervals were shorter than the incubation periods, suggesting that pre-symptomatic transmission occurred in 60% of transmission events. We estimated\n                    <jats:inline-formula>\n                      <jats:tex-math>$$R_e$$<\/jats:tex-math>\n                    <\/jats:inline-formula>\n                    to be 0.95 (95% highest posterior density [HPD]: 0.93\u20131.35) and\n                    <jats:inline-formula>\n                      <jats:tex-math>$$K$$<\/jats:tex-math>\n                    <\/jats:inline-formula>\n                    to be 1.52 (95% HPD: 1.07\u20135.76), indicating supercritical Mpox transmission in the AGC with limited transmission heterogeneity. Using a Bayesian framework with non-informative priors and a negative binomial distribution, we projected\n                    <jats:inline-formula>\n                      <jats:tex-math>$$R_e$$<\/jats:tex-math>\n                    <\/jats:inline-formula>\n                    to remain between 0.95 and 1.0 from August 2022 to January 2023, underscoring the need for continued efforts to reduce transmissibility. These findings provide valuable information for public health interventions, emphasizing a multifaceted approach to managing Mpox transmission.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-025-99252-w","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,5,5]],"date-time":"2025-05-05T23:53:51Z","timestamp":1746489231000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["Exploring the epidemiological characteristics of Mpox in the Arab Gulf countries"],"prefix":"10.1038","volume":"15","author":[{"given":"Yehya M.","family":"Althobaity","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Michael J.","family":"Tildesley","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,5,6]]},"reference":[{"key":"99252_CR1","unstructured":"RAPID RISK ASSESSMENT. Monkeypox multi-country outbreak\u2013second update. update, (2022)."},{"issue":"24","key":"99252_CR2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2200448","DOI":"10.2807\/1560-7917.ES.2022.27.24.2200448","volume":"27","author":"F Miura","year":"2022","unstructured":"Miura, F. et al. Estimated incubation period for monkeypox cases confirmed in the Netherlands, May 2022. Eurosurveillance 27(24), 2200448 (2022).","journal-title":"Eurosurveillance"},{"key":"99252_CR3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"113","DOI":"10.1016\/j.bbi.2022.08.009","volume":"106","author":"AS Bhagavathula","year":"2022","unstructured":"Bhagavathula, A. S. & Khubchandani, J. Monkeypox outbreaks and global health emergency declaration: Can such declarations influence public interest in the disease?. Brain Behav. Immun. 106, 113 (2022).","journal-title":"Brain Behav. Immun."},{"issue":"22","key":"99252_CR4","first-page":"2200424","volume":"27","author":"MP Duque","year":"2022","unstructured":"Duque, M. P. et al. Ongoing monkeypox virus outbreak, Portugal, 29 April to 23 May 2022. Eurosurveillance 27(22), 2200424 (2022).","journal-title":"Eurosurveillance"},{"issue":"06","key":"99252_CR5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"321","DOI":"10.1016\/j.bsheal.2023.10.003","volume":"5","author":"Y Zong","year":"2023","unstructured":"Zong, Y. et al. Epidemiology and characteristics of identified early mpox cases in Guangdong province, China: Implications for prevention and control. Biosafety and Health 5(06), 321\u2013325 (2023).","journal-title":"Biosafety and Health"},{"issue":"22","key":"99252_CR6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2200422","DOI":"10.2807\/1560-7917.ES.2022.27.22.2200422","volume":"27","author":"R Vivancos","year":"2022","unstructured":"Vivancos, R. et al. Community transmission of monkeypox in the United Kingdom, April to May 2022. Eurosurveillance 27(22), 2200422 (2022).","journal-title":"Eurosurveillance"},{"key":"99252_CR7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Miura, F., Backer, J.A., Rijckevorsel, G. van, Bavalia, R., Raven, S., Petrignani, M., Ainslie, K.E.C. & Wallinga, J., and for the Dutch Mpox Response Team. Time Scales of Human Mpox Transmission in The Netherlands. J. Infect. Dis., page jiad091, 04 (2023).","DOI":"10.1101\/2022.12.03.22283056"},{"key":"99252_CR8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Brosius, I., Van Dijck, C., Coppens, J., Vandenhove, L., Bangwen, E., Vanroye, F., Verschueren, J., ITM MPOX Study Group, Zange, S., Bugert, J. & Michiels, J. ITM MPOX Study Group, Sabine Zange, Joachim Bugert, et al. Presymptomatic viral shedding in high-risk mpox contacts: A prospective cohort study. J. Med. Virolo., 95(5), e28769 (2023).","DOI":"10.1002\/jmv.28769"},{"issue":"10","key":"99252_CR9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1008","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jiac.2023.06.018","volume":"29","author":"T Kubo","year":"2023","unstructured":"Kubo, T., Hayakawa, K., Akiyama, Y., Morioka, S. & Ohmagari, N. A case of confirmed pre-symptomatic transmission of mpox. J. Infect. Chemother. 29(10), 1008\u20131009 (2023).","journal-title":"J. Infect. Chemother."},{"issue":"5","key":"99252_CR10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1369","DOI":"10.1007\/s15010-023-01997-x","volume":"51","author":"ST Kr\u00f6ger","year":"2023","unstructured":"Kr\u00f6ger, S. T. et al. Mpox outbreak 2022: An overview of all cases reported to the cologne health department. Infection 51(5), 1369\u20131381 (2023).","journal-title":"Infection"},{"key":"99252_CR11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.7554\/eLife.57149","volume":"9","author":"LC Tindale","year":"2020","unstructured":"Tindale, L. C. et al. 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Estimation of the serial interval of monkeypox during the early outbreak in 2022. J. Med. Virol. 95(1), e28248 (2023).","journal-title":"J. Med. Virol."}],"container-title":["Scientific Reports"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-025-99252-w.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-025-99252-w","content-type":"text\/html","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-025-99252-w.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,5,5]],"date-time":"2025-05-05T23:53:54Z","timestamp":1746489234000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-025-99252-w"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2025,5,6]]},"references-count":16,"journal-issue":{"issue":"1","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,12]]}},"alternative-id":["99252"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41598-025-99252-w","relation":{},"ISSN":["2045-2322"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2045-2322","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2025,5,6]]},"assertion":[{"value":"25 August 2024","order":1,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"18 April 2025","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"6 May 2025","order":3,"name":"first_online","label":"First Online","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"order":1,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Declarations"}},{"value":"The authors declare no competing interests.","order":2,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Competing interests"}}],"article-number":"15748"}}