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Identifying spatial patterns of urban fires depends critically on the scale at which clustering is analyzed, yet a systematic approach to determine this optimal scale remains lacking. Moreover, the quantitative influence of fine-grained land-use structure on fire occurrence is not well understood. To overcome these gaps, this study proposes a novel three-stage framework for constructing hierarchical urban fire risk maps conditioned on built-environment macrostructure: (1) Investigation and selection of influencing factors, innovatively introducing high-resolution urban land-use attributes as variables, alongside traditional factors such as population density and socioeconomic indicators; (2) Determination of optimal grid size by integrating two key indicators: the Moran\u2019s Index and Silhouette Score, ensuring precise spatial clustering. Subsequently, the spatial autocorrelation of urban fires is quantified; and (3) Negative binomial regression-driven risk quantification, deriving factor weights to calculate cell-level risk scores and generate hierarchical risk levels. Finally, a case study is conducted using fire data from Xiaoshan, China, a typical urban district with a population of about 2\u00a0million, covering 4,967 incidents from 2020 to 2023. The fire risk map indicates that urban fire distribution demonstrates striking conformity to the 80\/20 rule, with a small share of cells concentrating most of the risk. This methodology provides stable, actionable risk mapping for strategic fire resource deployment and urban planning.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-026-38373-2","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,7]],"date-time":"2026-02-07T15:34:15Z","timestamp":1770478455000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":4,"title":["Risk maps for urban fire with geospatial model-based framework"],"prefix":"10.1038","volume":"16","author":[{"given":"Ke","family":"Wu","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Sha","family":"Lu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yishuo","family":"Jiang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ming","family":"Chen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jianing","family":"Luo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Liping","family":"Jiang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Tianhang","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yuxin","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Xinyan","family":"Huang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,7]]},"reference":[{"key":"38373_CR1","unstructured":"Fire, I. & Standards, S. 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