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An NQPF evaluation system comprising 19 indicators across three dimensions was constructed using a combined weighting method integrating entropy, coefficient of variation, CRITIC, and principal component analysis. The Tapio decoupling model and Moran\u2019s I spatial autocorrelation were employed to examine the NQPF-carbon emission relationship. Results indicated that: (1) Net carbon emissions increased from 4118.38\u2009\u00d7\u2009104 t to 19,867.15\u2009\u00d7\u2009104 t (382.4% growth), with construction land contributing 98.1% of total carbon sources by 2020. (2) The NQPF index rose from 0.152 to 0.860 (465.8% growth), with the \u201cnew objects of labor\u201d dimension receiving the highest weight (0.5921), corroborating the green development-oriented nature of NQPF. (3) All three periods exhibited \u201cweak decoupling,\u201d with elasticity coefficients declining from 0.740 to 0.261, indicating strengthening carbon constraints. (4) No significant spatial clustering was detected (|Z|&lt;\u20091.96); riverside cities (Wuhan, Xiangyang, Yichang) formed \u201cisolated high-emission centers\u201d accounting for 54.2% of provincial emissions. This study pioneers the integration of NQPF theory into land use carbon research, providing scientific basis for regional low-carbon transition in central China.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-026-52454-2","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,20]],"date-time":"2026-05-20T19:43:04Z","timestamp":1779306184000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["Spatio-temporal evolution analysis of land-use carbon effects driven by new quality productive forces: a case study of Hubei province"],"prefix":"10.1038","volume":"16","author":[{"given":"Xia","family":"Zhou","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yanwen","family":"Liu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Donghui","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Senhao","family":"Liu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yu","family":"Gao","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yurong","family":"Jiang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,20]]},"reference":[{"key":"52454_CR1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s44362-024-00002-1","volume":"1","author":"X Chen","year":"2025","unstructured":"Chen, X., Liu, L., Li, D., Han, Y. & Liu, X. 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