{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,25]],"date-time":"2026-09-25T01:09:21Z","timestamp":1790298561994,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":27,"publisher":"Springer Science and Business Media LLC","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,10]],"date-time":"2026-06-10T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1781049600000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,10]],"date-time":"2026-06-10T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1781049600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"}],"funder":[{"name":"Deutsches Zentrum f\u00fcr Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR)"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["link.springer.com"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Sci Rep"],"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>\n                    The World Health Organisation (WHO) aims to eliminate malaria by 2030; yet, the disease remains endemic in Sub-Saharan Africa. Stagnant floodwaters provide ideal breeding grounds for mosquitoes. Previous estimates of potential malaria risk in flood zones have been limited due to insufficient large-scale geospatial data. Here, we integrate high-resolution flood maps (2000\u20132018) from the Global Flood Database, malaria incidence data from the Malaria Atlas Project, and geospatial population data across 492 flood-prone zones in 38 countries. We used a geospatial statistical models to assess malaria relative risk and drivers. We found that in East and West Africa, malaria relative risk is elevated in flood-prone regions compared to national baselines. We estimate that\n                    <jats:inline-formula>\n                      <jats:tex-math>$$\\sim$$<\/jats:tex-math>\n                    <\/jats:inline-formula>\n                    12 million individuals diagnosed with\n                    <jats:italic>Plasmodium falciparum\u00a0(Pf<\/jats:italic>\n                    )were exposed to flooding events, representing one-third of the population affected by floods. Our analyses find that flood exposure is one of the main drivers of the malaria burden in flood zones. These findings identify critical malaria hotspots and key drivers in flood-prone zones, and can help inform WHO\u2019s malaria eradication strategies by guiding policymakers on the geographic distribution of vulnerable areas.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-026-54811-7","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,10]],"date-time":"2026-06-10T04:54:39Z","timestamp":1781067279000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["Geospatial mapping of malaria risk in flood-prone zones of Sub-Saharan Africa"],"prefix":"10.1038","volume":"16","author":[{"given":"Jeremy","family":"Eudaric","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Marleen C.","family":"de Ruiter","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Nivedita","family":"Sairam","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Andr\u00e9s","family":"Camero","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Kasra Rafiezadeh","family":"Shahi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Mark W.","family":"Smith","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Xiao Xiang","family":"Zhu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Heidi","family":"Kreibich","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,10]]},"reference":[{"key":"54811_CR1","unstructured":"World Health Organization. Global Report on Health Data Systems and Capacity, 2024. World Health Organization, Geneva. https:\/\/www.who.int\/publications\/i\/item\/9789240086173 (2024)."},{"key":"54811_CR2","unstructured":"Organization, W. H. Malaria. https:\/\/www.afro.who.int\/health-topics\/malaria (2024)."},{"key":"54811_CR3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1186\/s12879-015-0935-7","volume":"15","author":"L Sitali","year":"2015","unstructured":"Sitali, L. et al. Patterns of mixed plasmodium species infections among children six years and under in selected malaria hyper-endemic communities of zambia: population-based survey observations. BMC Infect. Dis. 15, 1 (2015).","journal-title":"BMC Infect. Dis."},{"issue":"6696","key":"54811_CR4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"697","DOI":"10.1126\/science.adk8755","volume":"384","author":"MW Smith","year":"2024","unstructured":"Smith, M. W. et al. Future malaria environmental suitability in Africa is sensitive to hydrology. Science 384(6696), 697\u2013703 (2024).","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"54811_CR5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467-024-47265-w","volume":"15","author":"E Suh","year":"2024","unstructured":"Suh, E. et al. Estimating the effects of temperature on transmission of the human malaria parasite, plasmodium falciparum. Nat. Commun. 15, 1 (2024).","journal-title":"Nat. Commun."},{"key":"54811_CR6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Velayudhan, R. Brief Overview of the World Health Organization Vector Control Global Response 2017-2030 and Vector Control Advisory Group Activities 633\u2013644 (CRC Press, 2021).","DOI":"10.1201\/9781003169239-35"},{"key":"54811_CR7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2","DOI":"10.1029\/2022GH000698","volume":"7","author":"EI Yamba","year":"2023","unstructured":"Yamba, E. I. et al. Climate drivers of malaria transmission seasonality and their relative importance in sub-saharan Africa. GeoHealth 7, 2 (2023).","journal-title":"GeoHealth"},{"key":"54811_CR8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467-020-18239-5","volume":"11","author":"MW Smith","year":"2020","unstructured":"Smith, M. W. et al. Incorporating hydrology into climate suitability models changes projections of malaria transmission in africa. Nat. Commun. 11, 1 (2020).","journal-title":"Nat. Commun."},{"key":"54811_CR9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"11","DOI":"10.1029\/2005WR004742","volume":"42","author":"J Scibek","year":"2006","unstructured":"Scibek, J. & Allen, D. M. Modeled impacts of predicted climate change on recharge and groundwater levels. Water Resour. Res. 42, 11 (2006).","journal-title":"Water Resour. Res."},{"key":"54811_CR10","first-page":"1","volume":"4","author":"A Robinson","year":"2021","unstructured":"Robinson, A., Lehmann, J., Barriopedro, D., Rahmstorf, S. & Coumou, D. Increasing heat and rainfall extremes now far outside the historical climate. Npj Clim. Atmos. Sci 4, 1 (2021).","journal-title":"Npj Clim. Atmos. Sci"},{"issue":"8","key":"54811_CR11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"793","DOI":"10.1038\/s41558-024-02078-z","volume":"14","author":"JL-H Tsui","year":"2024","unstructured":"Tsui, J.L.-H. et al. Impacts of climate change-related human migration on infectious diseases. Nat. Clim. Chang. 14(8), 793\u2013802 (2024).","journal-title":"Nat. Clim. Chang."},{"key":"54811_CR12","unstructured":"Climate impacts on malaria in Africa. Technical report, Authoring Institution or Publisher. https:\/\/d3j3by4g65v3w3.cloudfront.net\/Climate+Impacts+on+Malaria+in+Africa+-+November+2024.pdf (2024)."},{"issue":"7870","key":"54811_CR13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"80","DOI":"10.1038\/s41586-021-03695-w","volume":"596","author":"B Tellman","year":"2021","unstructured":"Tellman, B. et al. Satellite imaging reveals increased proportion of population exposed to floods. Nature 596(7870), 80\u201386 (2021).","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"54811_CR14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"3527","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467-022-30727-4","volume":"13","author":"J Rentschler","year":"2022","unstructured":"Rentschler, J., Salhab, M. & Jafino, B. A. Flood exposure and poverty in 188 countries. Nat. Commun. 13, 3527 (2022).","journal-title":"Nat. Commun."},{"key":"54811_CR15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1186\/s12889-022-12584-4","volume":"22","author":"F Suhr","year":"2022","unstructured":"Suhr, F. & Steinert, J. I. Epidemiology of floods in sub-saharan Africa: a systematic review of health outcomes. BMC Public Health 22, 1 (2022).","journal-title":"BMC Public Health"},{"issue":"9","key":"54811_CR16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1403","DOI":"10.1093\/infdis\/jiw363","volume":"214","author":"R Boyce","year":"2016","unstructured":"Boyce, R. et al. Severe flooding and malaria transmission in the western Ugandan highlands: implications for disease control in an era of global climate change. J. Infect. Dis. 214(9), 1403\u20131410 (2016).","journal-title":"J. Infect. Dis."},{"key":"54811_CR17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"390","DOI":"10.1038\/s41586-025-10015-z","volume":"651","author":"TL Symons","year":"2026","unstructured":"Symons, T. L., Moran, A. & Balzarolo, A. Projected impacts of climate change on malaria in Africa. Nature 651, 390\u2013396. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41586-025-10015-z (2026).","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"54811_CR18","unstructured":"Project, M. A. 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Public Health"}],"container-title":["Scientific Reports"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-026-54811-7","content-type":"text\/html","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-026-54811-7.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-026-54811-7.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,10]],"date-time":"2026-06-10T05:06:43Z","timestamp":1781068003000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-026-54811-7"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,10]]},"references-count":27,"journal-issue":{"issue":"1","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,12]]}},"alternative-id":["54811"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41598-026-54811-7","relation":{},"ISSN":["2045-2322"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2045-2322","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,10]]},"assertion":[{"value":"12 November 2025","order":1,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"15 May 2026","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"10 June 2026","order":3,"name":"first_online","label":"First Online","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"The authors declare no competing interests.","order":1,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Competing interests"}}],"article-number":"18002"}}