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The objective of this study is to present a dry-hole analysis of three exploratory wells drilled in the East Tiba\/Natrun study area, in the northeastern Western Desert of Egypt. Despite the Western Desert and the nearby Nile Delta provinces having proven hydrocarbon resources, these wells failed to deliver commercial discoveries. The analysis was conducted from a petroleum-system perspective, integrating geological, petrophysical, and well testing data to identify the causes of failure. The present study applies a systematic dry-hole evaluation workflow and develops a decision-tree framework for prospect selection and ranking. Each well was evaluated based on the effectiveness of the source rock, hydrocarbon migration pathways, reservoir quality, trap configuration, and seal integrity through comparative analysis. The key results and implications of this paper indicate that the primary causes of failure include seismic misinterpretation, trap failure, ineffective sealing mechanisms, and insufficient hydrocarbon charge due to lateral migration barriers or source maturity issues. In some cases, poor reservoir development or drilling through water-bearing zones in structurally complex settings contributed to the lack of success of the drilled wells. By identifying these failure mechanisms, the study offers valuable insights into exploration risk assessment and highlights the need for improved pre-drill modeling, seismic interpretation, and basin analysis. These conclusions highlight the significance of understanding dry-hole causes in mature hydrocarbon provinces like the Western Desert, as they reduce the risk of future dry holes and enhance exploration success rates in under-explored areas of the Western Desert, as well as the Nile Delta and Gulf of Suez in Egypt, and analogous sedimentary basins in North Africa and around the world.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-026-64351-9","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,24]],"date-time":"2026-08-24T12:30:34Z","timestamp":1787574634000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Dry-hole analysis of exploratory wells in East Tiba-Natrun Area, NE Abu Gharadig Basin, Western Desert, Egypt: implications to petroleum exploration"],"prefix":"10.1038","volume":"16","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0000-6604-0708","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Mona","family":"Ibrahim","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Shawky","family":"Sakran","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"William","family":"Bosworth","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,24]]},"reference":[{"key":"64351_CR1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"635","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-030-15265-9_16","volume-title":"The Geology of Egypt. 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