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Med."],"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Arteriovenous (AV) access is important to support long-term hemodialysis; however, a significant proportion fail due to inadequate maturation or other complications. Tools that can predict long-term AV access success may guide clinical decision-making but remain limited. We developed machine learning (ML) algorithms that predict 1-year successful clinical use of an AV access using pre-operative data. The Vascular Quality Initiative (VQI) was used to identify patients who underwent surgical AV fistula\/graft creation between 2011\u20132024. We identified 111 pre-operative demographic, clinical, and anatomic features. Six ML models were trained with 10-fold cross-validation. Overall, 59,674 patients underwent AV access creation and 28,304 (47.4%) had 1-year successful clinical use of their index AV access. The best prediction model was XGBoost, achieving an AUROC of 0.90. 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The XGBoost model accurately predicted 1-year successful clinical use of an AV access for hemodialysis, performing better than logistic regression.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1038\/s41746-025-02187-9","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,4]],"date-time":"2025-12-04T13:09:25Z","timestamp":1764853765000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":9,"title":["Predicting 1-year successful clinical use of an arteriovenous access for hemodialysis using machine learning"],"prefix":"10.1038","volume":"9","author":[{"given":"Ben","family":"Li","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Naomi","family":"Eisenberg","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Derek","family":"Beaton","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Douglas S.","family":"Lee","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Leen","family":"Al-Omran","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Duminda N.","family":"Wijeysundera","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Mohamad A.","family":"Hussain","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ori D.","family":"Rotstein","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Elisa","family":"Greco","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Charles","family":"de Mestral","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Muhammad","family":"Mamdani","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Graham","family":"Roche-Nagle","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Mohammed","family":"Al-Omran","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,4]]},"reference":[{"key":"2187_CR1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1307","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.2024.0535","volume":"331","author":"CE Lok","year":"2024","unstructured":"Lok, C. 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