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Here we quantify tropical coral reef benthic communities at 37 stations with varying exposure to submarine volcanic CO\n                    <jats:sub>2<\/jats:sub>\n                    seeping, and determine the aragonite saturation state (\u2126\n                    <jats:sub>Ar<\/jats:sub>\n                    ) where significant changes occur in situ. With declining \u2126\n                    <jats:sub>Ar<\/jats:sub>\n                    , reef communities displayed progressive retractions of most reef-building taxa and a proliferation in the biomass and cover of non-calcareous brown and red algae, without clear tipping points. The percent cover of all complex habitat-forming corals, crustose coralline algae (CCA) and articulate coralline Rhodophyta declined by over 50% as \u2126\n                    <jats:sub>Ar<\/jats:sub>\n                    levels declined from present-day to 2, and importantly, the cover of some of these groups was already significantly altered at an \u2126\n                    <jats:sub>Ar<\/jats:sub>\n                    of 3.2. The diversity of adult and juvenile coral also rapidly declined. We further quantitatively predict coral reef community metrics for the year 2100 for a range of emissions scenarios, especially shared socio-economic pathways SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0. The response curves show that due to ocean acidification alone, reef states will directly depend on CO\n                    <jats:sub>2<\/jats:sub>\n                    emissions, with higher emissions causing larger deviations from the reefs of today.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1038\/s42003-025-08889-w","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,11,24]],"date-time":"2025-11-24T10:02:24Z","timestamp":1763978544000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":6,"title":["Progressive changes in coral reef communities with increasing ocean acidification"],"prefix":"10.1038","volume":"8","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0392-6197","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Sam H. 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