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We modelled the relationship between onchocerciasis skin disease (OSD) and infection prevalence using pre-intervention data from northern Nigeria, and between onchocerciasis ocular disease (OOD) and infection intensity using data from the Onchocerciasis Control Programme in West Africa. We simulated the impact of ivermectin mass drug administration (MDA) upon OSD and OOD using data from Cameroon, Central African Republic, Nigeria, Sudan and Uganda.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Modelled age-specific OSD and OOD prevalence at baseline align well with reported prevalence estimates across the simulated range of endemicity levels but underestimate irreversible OSD in older age groups. Under MDA, we capture trends in infection prevalence, severe itch and irreversible OSD but underestimate reductions in RSD and blindness prevalence.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Integrating morbidity outcomes into transmission dynamics modelling will help improve estimates of onchocerciasis disease burden and inform the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of current and alternative interventions.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1038\/s43856-026-01464-2","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,2]],"date-time":"2026-03-02T01:54:14Z","timestamp":1772416454000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":3,"title":["Modelling of onchocerciasis-associated skin and ocular disease and the impact of ivermectin treatment"],"prefix":"10.1038","volume":"6","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1710-6237","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Matthew A.","family":"Dixon","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0006-2120-4629","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Aditya","family":"Ramani","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8714-5365","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Martin","family":"Walker","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jacob N.","family":"Stapley","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Michele E.","family":"Murdoch","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ian E.","family":"Murdoch","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Gladys A.","family":"Ozoh","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jonathan F.","family":"Mosser","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5031-3361","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Maria-Gloria","family":"Bas\u00e1\u00f1ez","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,2]]},"reference":[{"key":"1464_CR1","unstructured":"World Health Organization. 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