{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,16]],"date-time":"2026-05-16T12:42:11Z","timestamp":1778935331369,"version":"3.51.4"},"reference-count":32,"publisher":"Springer Science and Business Media LLC","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2015,10,15]],"date-time":"2015-10-15T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1444867200000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2015,10,15]],"date-time":"2015-10-15T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1444867200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["link.springer.com"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Sci Rep"],"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:p>Bacillary dysentery (BD) remains a big public health problem in China. Effective spatio-temporal monitoring of BD incidence is important for successful implementation of control and prevention measures. This study aimed to examine the spatio-temporal pattern of BD and analyze socio-economic factors that may affect BD incidence in Sichuan province, China. Firstly, we used space-time scan statistic to detect the high risk spatio-temporal clusters in each year. Then, bivariate spatial correlation and Bayesian spatio-temporal model were utilized to examine the associations between the socio-economic factors and BD incidence. Spatio-temporal clusters of BD were mainly located in the northern-southern belt of the midwest area of Sichuan province. The proportion of primary industry, the proportion of rural population and the rates of BD incidence show statistically significant positive correlation. The proportion of secondary industry, proportion of tertiary Industry, number of beds in hospitals per thousand persons, medical and technical personnel per thousand persons, per capital GDP and the rate of BD incidence show statistically significant negative correlation. The best fitting spatio-temporal model showed that medical and technical personnel per thousand persons and per capital GDP were significantly negative related to the risk of BD.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1038\/srep15264","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2015,10,15]],"date-time":"2015-10-15T13:01:42Z","timestamp":1444914102000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":17,"title":["Spatio-Temporal Pattern and Socio-Economic Factors of Bacillary Dysentery at County Level in Sichuan Province, China"],"prefix":"10.1038","volume":"5","author":[{"given":"Yue","family":"Ma","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Tao","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Lei","family":"Liu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Qiang","family":"Lv","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Fei","family":"Yin","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2015,10,15]]},"reference":[{"key":"BFsrep15264_CR1","first-page":"133","volume":"43","author":"SK Niyogi","year":"2005","unstructured":"Niyogi, S. K. Shigellosis. J Microbiol 43, 133\u2013143 (2005).","journal-title":"J Microbiol"},{"key":"BFsrep15264_CR2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e353","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.0030353","volume":"3","author":"L Von Seidlein","year":"2006","unstructured":"Von Seidlein, L. et al. A multicentre study of Shigella diarrhoea in six Asian countries: disease burden, clinical manifestations and microbiology. PLoS Med 3, e353 (2006).","journal-title":"PLoS Med"},{"key":"BFsrep15264_CR3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"416","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.2005.73.416","volume":"73","author":"X-Y Wang","year":"2005","unstructured":"Wang, X.-Y. et al. Occurrence of shigellosis in the young and elderly in rural China: results of a 12-month population-based surveillance study. Am J Trop Med Hyg 73, 416\u2013422 (2005).","journal-title":"Am J Trop Med Hyg"},{"key":"BFsrep15264_CR4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"561","DOI":"10.2471\/BLT.05.023853","volume":"84","author":"X-Y Wang","year":"2006","unstructured":"Wang, X.-Y. et al. Trend and disease burden of bacillary dysentery in China (1991\u20132000). Bull World Health Organ 84, 561\u2013568 (2006).","journal-title":"Bull World Health Organ"},{"key":"BFsrep15264_CR5","first-page":"528","volume":"29","author":"Z Chang","year":"2014","unstructured":"Chang, Z., Sun, Q., Pei, Y., Zhang, J. & Sun, J. Surveillance of Bacillary Dysentery in China, 2012. Dis Sur 29, 528\u2013532 (2014).","journal-title":"Dis Sur"},{"key":"BFsrep15264_CR6","first-page":"77","volume":"28","author":"L Hong","year":"2013","unstructured":"Hong, L. et al. Epidemic Status of Notifiable Infectious Disease in Sichuan, 2011. J Occup Health Damage 28, 77\u201380 (2013).","journal-title":"J Occup Health Damage"},{"key":"BFsrep15264_CR7","first-page":"302","volume":"21","author":"LL Hao","year":"2014","unstructured":"Hao, L. L. et al. Surveillance on Epidemic status of notifiable communicable diseases in Sichuan Province in 2006\u20132010. Prac Preve Med 21, 302\u2013304 (2014).","journal-title":"Prac Preve Med"},{"key":"BFsrep15264_CR8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e83487","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0083487","volume":"9","author":"F Tang","year":"2014","unstructured":"Tang, F. et al. Spatio-Temporal Trends and Risk Factors for Shigella from 2001 to 2011 in Jiangsu Province, People\u2019s Republic of China. PLoS One 9, e83487 (2014).","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"key":"BFsrep15264_CR9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"998","DOI":"10.1186\/1471-2458-14-998","volume":"14","author":"G Xiao","year":"2014","unstructured":"Xiao, G., Xu, C., Wang, J., Yang, D. & Wang, L. Spatial-temporal pattern and risk factor analysis of bacillary dysentery in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan urban region of China. BMC Public Health 14, 998 (2014).","journal-title":"BMC Public Health"},{"key":"BFsrep15264_CR10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e104329","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0104329","volume":"9","author":"Z Xu","year":"2014","unstructured":"Xu, Z. et al. Spatiotemporal pattern of bacillary dysentery in china from 1990 to 2009: what is the driver behind? PLoS One 9, e104329 (2014).","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"key":"BFsrep15264_CR11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"697","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.13-0198","volume":"90","author":"L Gao","year":"2014","unstructured":"Gao, L. et al. Meteorological variables and bacillary dysentery cases in changsha city, china. Am J Trop Med Hyg 90, 697\u2013704 (2014).","journal-title":"Am J Trop Med Hyg"},{"key":"BFsrep15264_CR12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e62122","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0062122","volume":"8","author":"W Ma","year":"2013","unstructured":"Ma, W. et al. Applied mixed generalized additive model to assess the effect of temperature on the incidence of bacillary dysentery and its forecast. PLoS One 8, e62122 (2013).","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"key":"BFsrep15264_CR13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"194","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jinf.2006.12.002","volume":"55","author":"Y Zhang","year":"2007","unstructured":"Zhang, Y., Bi, P., Hiller, J. E., Sun, Y. & Ryan, P. Climate variations and bacillary dysentery in northern and southern cities of China. Journal of Infection 55, 194\u2013200 (2007).","journal-title":"Journal of Infection"},{"key":"BFsrep15264_CR14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"519","DOI":"10.1016\/S0277-9536(99)00146-X","volume":"49","author":"M Emch","year":"1999","unstructured":"Emch, M. Diarrheal disease risk in Matlab, Bangladesh. Soc Sci Med 49, 519\u2013530 (1999).","journal-title":"Soc Sci Med"},{"key":"BFsrep15264_CR15","first-page":"1","volume":"3","author":"Z Li","year":"2013","unstructured":"Li, Z. et al. Identifying high-risk areas of bacillary dysentery and associated meteorological factors in Wuhan, China. Sci Rep 3, 1\u20136 (2013).","journal-title":"Sci Rep"},{"key":"BFsrep15264_CR16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e102020","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0102020","volume":"9","author":"C Nie","year":"2014","unstructured":"Nie, C., Li, H., Yang, L., Zhong, G. & Zhang, L. Socio-Economic Factors of Bacillary Dysentery Based on Spatial Correlation Analysis in Guangxi Province, China. PLoS One 9, e102020 (2014).","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"key":"BFsrep15264_CR17","first-page":"128","volume":"4","author":"A Fares","year":"2013","unstructured":"Fares, A. Factors influencing the seasonal patterns of infectious diseases. Int J Prev Med 4, 128 (2013).","journal-title":"Int J Prev Med"},{"key":"BFsrep15264_CR18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2541","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2006.3604","volume":"273","author":"NC Grassly","year":"2006","unstructured":"Grassly, N. C. & Fraser, C. Seasonal infectious disease epidemiology. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B: Biological Sciences 273, 2541\u20132550 (2006).","journal-title":"Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B: Biological Sciences"},{"key":"BFsrep15264_CR19","first-page":"442","volume":"355","author":"W Checkley","year":"2000","unstructured":"Checkley, W. et al. Effects of EI Ni\u00f1o and ambient temperature on hospital admissions for diarrhoeal diseases in Peruvian children. The Lancet 355, 442\u2013450 (2000).","journal-title":"The Lancet"},{"key":"BFsrep15264_CR20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"356","DOI":"10.7883\/yoken.JJID.2008.356","volume":"61","author":"P Guan","year":"2008","unstructured":"Guan, P., Huang, D., Guo, J., Wang, P. & Zhou, B. Bacillary dysentery and meteorological factors in northeastern China: a historical review based on classification and regression trees. Jpn J Infect Dis 61, 356\u2013360 (2008).","journal-title":"Jpn J Infect Dis"},{"key":"BFsrep15264_CR21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"130","DOI":"10.1186\/1471-2334-8-130","volume":"8","author":"D Huang","year":"2008","unstructured":"Huang, D., Guan, P., Guo, J., Wang, P. & Zhou, B. Investigating the effects of climate variations on bacillary dysentery incidence in northeast China using ridge regression and hierarchical cluster analysis. BMC Infect Dis 8, 130 (2008).","journal-title":"BMC Infect Dis"},{"key":"BFsrep15264_CR22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1538","DOI":"10.1017\/S0950268809002477","volume":"137","author":"IR Lake","year":"2009","unstructured":"Lake, I. R. et al. A re-evaluation of the impact of temperature and climate change on foodborne illness. Epidemiol Infect 137, 1538\u20131547 (2009).","journal-title":"Epidemiol Infect"},{"key":"BFsrep15264_CR23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e2280","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0002280","volume":"7","author":"TH Farag","year":"2013","unstructured":"Farag, T. H. et al. Housefly population density correlates with shigellosis among children in Mirzapur, Bangladesh: a time series analysis. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 7, e2280 (2013).","journal-title":"PLoS Negl Trop Dis"},{"key":"BFsrep15264_CR24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"805","DOI":"10.1093\/ije\/dyn093","volume":"37","author":"SR Ferrer","year":"2008","unstructured":"Ferrer, S. R. et al. A hierarchical model for studying risk factors for childhood diarrhoea: a case\u2013control study in a middle-income country. Int J Epidemiol 37, 805\u2013815 (2008).","journal-title":"Int J Epidemiol"},{"key":"BFsrep15264_CR25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"161","DOI":"10.1093\/oxfordjournals.aje.a009247","volume":"146","author":"M Kulldorff","year":"1997","unstructured":"Kulldorff, M., Feuer, E. J., Miller, B. A. & Freedma, L. S. Breast cancer clusters in the northeast United States: a geographic analysis. Am J Epidemiol 146, 161\u2013170 (1997).","journal-title":"Am J Epidemiol"},{"key":"BFsrep15264_CR26","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"5","DOI":"10.1111\/j.0016-7363.2005.00671.x","volume":"38","author":"L Anselin","year":"2006","unstructured":"Anselin, L., Syabri, I. & Kho, Y. GeoDa: an introduction to spatial data analysis. Geogr Anal 38, 5\u201322 (2006).","journal-title":"Geogr Anal"},{"key":"BFsrep15264_CR27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"93","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1538-4632.1995.tb00338.x","volume":"27","author":"L Anselin","year":"1995","unstructured":"Anselin, L. Local indicators of spatial association\u2014LISA. Geogr Anal 27, 93\u2013115 (1995).","journal-title":"Geogr Anal"},{"key":"BFsrep15264_CR28","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2555","DOI":"10.1002\/1097-0258(20000915\/30)19:17\/18<2555::AID-SIM587>3.0.CO;2-#","volume":"19","author":"L Knorr-Held","year":"2000","unstructured":"Knorr-Held, L. Bayesian modelling of inseparable space-time variation in disease risk. Stat Med 19, 2555\u20132567 (2000).","journal-title":"Stat Med"},{"key":"BFsrep15264_CR29","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"405","DOI":"10.1002\/wics.1315","volume":"6","author":"AB Lawson","year":"2014","unstructured":"Lawson, A. B. Hierarchical modeling in spatial epidemiology. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Computational Statistics 6, 405\u2013417 (2014).","journal-title":"Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Computational Statistics"},{"key":"BFsrep15264_CR30","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"39","DOI":"10.1016\/j.sste.2013.07.003","volume":"7","author":"M Blangiardo","year":"2013","unstructured":"Blangiardo, M., Cameletti, M., Baio, G. & Rue, H. Spatial and spatio-temporal models with R-INLA. Spat Spatiotemporal Epidemiol 7, 39\u201355 (2013).","journal-title":"Spat Spatiotemporal Epidemiol"},{"key":"BFsrep15264_CR31","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"319","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1467-9868.2008.00700.x","volume":"71","author":"H Rue","year":"2009","unstructured":"Rue, H., Martino, S. & Chopin, N. Approximate Bayesian inference for latent Gaussian models by using integrated nested Laplace approximations. Journal of the royal statistical society: Series b (statistical methodology) 71, 319\u2013392 (2009).","journal-title":"Journal of the royal statistical society: Series b (statistical methodology)"},{"key":"BFsrep15264_CR32","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"583","DOI":"10.1111\/1467-9868.00353","volume":"64","author":"DJ Spiegelhalter","year":"2002","unstructured":"Spiegelhalter, D. J., Best, N. G., Carlin, B. P. & Van Der Linde, A. Bayesian measures of model complexity and fit. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology) 64, 583\u2013639 (2002).","journal-title":"Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology)"}],"container-title":["Scientific Reports"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/srep15264.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/srep15264","content-type":"text\/html","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/srep15264.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2023,8,15]],"date-time":"2023-08-15T11:04:46Z","timestamp":1692097486000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/srep15264"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2015,10,15]]},"references-count":32,"journal-issue":{"issue":"1","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2015,12,7]]}},"alternative-id":["BFsrep15264"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/srep15264","relation":{},"ISSN":["2045-2322"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2045-2322","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2015,10,15]]},"assertion":[{"value":"7 April 2015","order":1,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"21 September 2015","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"15 October 2015","order":3,"name":"first_online","label":"First Online","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"The authors declare no competing financial interests.","order":1,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Competing interests"}}],"article-number":"15264"}}