{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,1]],"date-time":"2026-10-01T11:11:59Z","timestamp":1790853119283,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":36,"publisher":"Springer Science and Business Media LLC","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2016,2,5]],"date-time":"2016-02-05T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1454630400000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2016,2,5]],"date-time":"2016-02-05T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1454630400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["link.springer.com"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Sci Rep"],"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:p>Countries export much of the harm created by their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions because the Earth\u2019s atmosphere intermixes globally. Yet, the extent to which this leads to inequity between GHG emitters and those impacted by the resulting climate change depends on the distribution of climate vulnerability. Here, we determine empirically the relationship between countries\u2019 GHG emissions and their vulnerability to negative effects of climate change. In line with the results of other studies, we find an enormous global inequality where 20 of the 36 highest emitting countries are among the least vulnerable to negative impacts of future climate change. Conversely, 11 of the 17 countries with low or moderate GHG emissions, are acutely vulnerable to negative impacts of climate change. In 2010, only 28 (16%) countries had an equitable balance between emissions and vulnerability. Moreover, future emissions scenarios show that this inequality will significantly worsen by 2030. Many countries are manifestly free riders causing others to bear a climate change burden, which acts as a disincentive for them to mitigate their emissions. It is time that this persistent and worsening climate inequity is resolved and for the largest emitting countries to act on their commitment of common but differentiated responsibilities.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1038\/srep20281","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2016,2,5]],"date-time":"2016-02-05T10:31:32Z","timestamp":1454668292000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":298,"title":["Global mismatch between greenhouse gas emissions and the burden of climate change"],"prefix":"10.1038","volume":"6","author":[{"given":"Glenn","family":"Althor","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"James E. M.","family":"Watson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Richard A.","family":"Fuller","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2016,2,5]]},"reference":[{"key":"BFsrep20281_CR1","unstructured":"Ipcc . Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [ Field, C. B., V. R. Barros, D. J. Dokken, K. J. Mach, M. D. Mastrandrea, T. E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K. L. Ebi, Y. O.. Estrada, R. C. Genova, B. Girma, E. S. Kissel, A. N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P. R. Mastrandrea and L. L. White (eds.)]. (Cambridge University Press, 2014)."},{"key":"BFsrep20281_CR2","unstructured":"Ipcc . Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [ Barros, V. R., C. B. Field, D. J. Dokken, M. D. Mastrandrea, K. J. Mach, T. E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K. L. Ebi, Y. O. Estrada, R. C. Genova, B. Girma, E. S. Kissel, A. N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P. R. Mastrandrea & L. L. White (eds.)]. (Cambridge University Press, 2014)."},{"key":"BFsrep20281_CR3","unstructured":"United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Text of the Convention. (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 1992)."},{"key":"BFsrep20281_CR4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"186","DOI":"10.1038\/nclimate2110","volume":"4","author":"AK Jorgenson","year":"2014","unstructured":"Jorgenson, A. K. Economic development and the carbon intensity of human well-being. Nature Clim. Change 4, 186\u2013189 (2014).","journal-title":"Nature Clim. Change"},{"key":"BFsrep20281_CR5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"306","DOI":"10.1038\/nclimate2197","volume":"4","author":"P Sheehan","year":"2014","unstructured":"Sheehan, P., Cheng, E., English, A. & Sun, F. China\u2019s response to the air pollution shock. Nature Clim. Change 4, 306\u2013309 (2014).","journal-title":"Nature Clim. Change"},{"key":"BFsrep20281_CR6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"43","DOI":"10.1038\/nature10322","volume":"476","author":"SA Montzka","year":"2011","unstructured":"Montzka, S. A., Dlugokencky, E. J. & Butler, J. H. Non-CO2 greenhouse gases and climate change. Nature 476, 43\u201350 (2011).","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"BFsrep20281_CR7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"7","DOI":"10.1038\/climate.2007.74","volume":"2","author":"R Betts","year":"2008","unstructured":"Betts, R. Comparing apples with oranges. Nature Reports Climate Change 2, 7\u20138, doi: 10.1038\/climate.2007.74 (2008).","journal-title":"Nature Reports Climate Change"},{"key":"BFsrep20281_CR8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"666","DOI":"10.1038\/nclimate1864","volume":"3","author":"BD Stocker","year":"2013","unstructured":"Stocker, B. D. et al. Multiple greenhouse-gas feedbacks from the land biosphere under future climate change scenarios. Nature Clim. Change 3, 666\u2013672 (2013).","journal-title":"Nature Clim. Change"},{"key":"BFsrep20281_CR9","first-page":"235","volume":"23","author":"M Cazorla","year":"2001","unstructured":"Cazorla, M. & Toman, M. in Climate Change Economics and Policy: An RFF Anthology Ch. 23, 235 (RFF Press, 2001).","journal-title":"Climate Change Economics and Policy: An RFF Anthology"},{"key":"BFsrep20281_CR10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"217","DOI":"10.1080\/19338240903352776","volume":"64","author":"T Kjellstrom","year":"2009","unstructured":"Kjellstrom, T., Kovats, R. S., Lloyd, S. J., Holt, T. & Tol, R. S. J. The Direct Impact of Climate Change on Regional Labor Productivity. Arch. Environ. Occup. Health 64, 217\u2013227 (2009).","journal-title":"Arch. Environ. Occup. Health"},{"key":"BFsrep20281_CR11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"123","DOI":"10.3354\/cr00953","volume":"47","author":"K Trenberth","year":"2011","unstructured":"Trenberth, K. Changes in precipitation with climate change. Climate Research 47, 123\u2013138 (2011).","journal-title":"Climate Research"},{"key":"BFsrep20281_CR12","unstructured":"Ipcc. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability : Working Group ii Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Ipcc [ M. L. Parry, O. F. Canziani, J. P. Palutikof, P. J. Van Der Linden & C. E. Hanson (Eds)]. (Cambridge University Press, 2007)."},{"key":"BFsrep20281_CR13","first-page":"71","volume":"15","author":"E Ostrom","year":"2014","unstructured":"Ostrom, E. A polycentric approach for coping with climate change. Ann. Econ. Finance 15, 71\u2013108 (2014).","journal-title":"Ann. Econ. Finance"},{"key":"BFsrep20281_CR14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"114","DOI":"10.1038\/nclimate2490","volume":"5","author":"DH Cole","year":"2015","unstructured":"Cole, D. H. Advantages of a polycentric approach to climate change policy. Nature Clim. Change 5, 114\u2013118 (2015).","journal-title":"Nature Clim. Change"},{"key":"BFsrep20281_CR15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"129","DOI":"10.1007\/s10784-013-9212-7","volume":"14","author":"ND Rao","year":"2014","unstructured":"Rao, N. D. International and intranational equity in sharing climate change mitigation burdens. Int. Environ. Agreem.-P. 14, 129\u2013146 (2014).","journal-title":"Int. Environ. Agreem.-P"},{"key":"BFsrep20281_CR16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"597","DOI":"10.1016\/j.gloenvcha.2010.07.009","volume":"20","author":"H-M F\u00fcssel","year":"2010","unstructured":"F\u00fcssel, H.-M. How inequitable is the global distribution of responsibility, capability and vulnerability to climate change: A comprehensive indicator-based assessment. Global Environmental Change 20, 597\u2013611 (2010).","journal-title":"Global Environmental Change"},{"key":"BFsrep20281_CR17","unstructured":"World Resources Institute, C limate Analysis Indicators Tool: WRI\u2019s Climate Data Explorer. (2014) Available at: http:\/\/cait.wri.org\/historic. (Date of access: 31\/05\/2015)."},{"key":"BFsrep20281_CR18","unstructured":"DARA. Methodological Documentation for the Climate Vulnerability Monitor. (DARA, 2012)."},{"key":"BFsrep20281_CR19","unstructured":"Coulter, P. B. Measuring Inequality: A Methodological Handbook. (Westview Press, 1989)."},{"key":"BFsrep20281_CR20","unstructured":"UNFCCC. Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. (UNFCCC, 2015)."},{"key":"BFsrep20281_CR21","unstructured":"UNFCCC, INDCs as communicated by Parties. (2015) Available at: http:\/\/www4.unfccc.int\/submissions\/indc\/Submission%20Pages\/submissions.aspx. (Date of access:) 17\/12\/15)."},{"key":"BFsrep20281_CR22","unstructured":"Jackson, R. B. et al. Reaching peak emissions. Nature Clim. Change. Advance online publication, (2015). Available at: http:\/\/www.nature.com\/nclimate\/journal\/vaop\/ncurrent\/full\/nclimate2892.html. (Date of access: 17\/12\/2015)"},{"key":"BFsrep20281_CR23","unstructured":"Fekete, H. et al. Analysis of Current Greenhouse Gas Emission Trends. (Climate Analytics, 2013)."},{"key":"BFsrep20281_CR24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"142","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jeem.2015.03.003","volume":"71","author":"WA Pizer","year":"2015","unstructured":"Pizer, W. A. & Yates, A. J. Terminating links between emission trading programs. J Environ Econ Manag 71, 142\u2013159 (2015).","journal-title":"J Environ Econ Manag"},{"key":"BFsrep20281_CR25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"383","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1541-1338.2012.00565.x","volume":"29","author":"K Harrison","year":"2012","unstructured":"Harrison, K. A Tale of Two Taxes: The Fate of Environmental Tax Reform in Canada. Review of Policy Research 29, 383\u2013407 (2012).","journal-title":"Review of Policy Research"},{"key":"BFsrep20281_CR26","unstructured":"Green Climate Fund, Background. (2015) Available at: http:\/\/www.gcfund.org\/about\/the-fund.html. (Date of access: 02\/11\/2015)."},{"key":"BFsrep20281_CR27","first-page":"4","volume":"15","author":"J Pickering","year":"2015","unstructured":"Pickering, J., Jotzo, F. & Wood, P. J. Splitting the difference: can limited coordination achieve a fair distribution of the global climate financing effort\u2009? Environ Polit 15, 4 (2015).","journal-title":"Environ Polit"},{"key":"BFsrep20281_CR28","unstructured":"World Bank Group, World DataBank. (2015) Available at: http:\/\/databank.worldbank.org\/data\/views\/reports\/tableview.aspx. (Date of access: 31\/05\/2015)."},{"key":"BFsrep20281_CR29","first-page":"1613","volume":"29","author":"LA Nurse","year":"2014","unstructured":"Nurse, L. A. et al. in Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (eds V. R. Barros et al. .) Ch. 29, 1613\u20131654 (Cambridge University Press, 2014).","journal-title":"Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change"},{"key":"BFsrep20281_CR30","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"417","DOI":"10.1038\/nclimate1726","volume":"3","author":"MJ Widlansky","year":"2013","unstructured":"Widlansky, M. J. et al. Changes in South Pacific rainfall bands in a warming climate. Nature Clim. Change 3, 417\u2013423 (2013).","journal-title":"Nature Clim. Change"},{"key":"BFsrep20281_CR31","unstructured":"R. Core Team (2013). R: A language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria. URL http:\/\/www.R-project.org\/."},{"key":"BFsrep20281_CR32","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"917","DOI":"10.1038\/nclimate2716","volume":"5","author":"FEL Otto","year":"2015","unstructured":"Otto, F. E. L., Frame, D. J., Otto, A. & Allen, M. R. Embracing uncertainty in climate change policy. Nature Clim. Change 5, 917\u2013920 (2015).","journal-title":"Nature Clim. Change"},{"key":"BFsrep20281_CR33","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"241","DOI":"10.1177\/0010836792027003002","volume":"27","author":"A Ahnlid","year":"1992","unstructured":"Ahnlid, A. Free or Forced Riders\u2009?\u2009: Small States in the International Political Economy: The Example of Sweden. Cooperation and Conflict 27, 241\u2013276 (1992).","journal-title":"Cooperation and Conflict"},{"key":"BFsrep20281_CR34","first-page":"19","volume":"48","author":"RO Keohane","year":"2015","unstructured":"Keohane, R. O. The Global Politics of Climate Change: Challenge for Political Science. PS: Political Science & Politics 48, 19\u201326 (2015).","journal-title":"PS: Political Science & Politics"},{"key":"BFsrep20281_CR35","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"185","DOI":"10.1016\/j.rser.2014.02.036","volume":"34","author":"M Kennedy","year":"2014","unstructured":"Kennedy, M. & Basu, B. An analysis of the climate change architecture. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 34, 185\u2013193 (2014).","journal-title":"Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews"},{"key":"BFsrep20281_CR36","unstructured":"ESRI (2011). ArcGIS Desktop. Environmental Systems Research Institute, Redlands, CA. URL http:\/\/www.arcgis.com\/."}],"container-title":["Scientific Reports"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/srep20281","content-type":"text\/html","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/srep20281.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/srep20281.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2023,1,4]],"date-time":"2023-01-04T13:38:57Z","timestamp":1672839537000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/srep20281"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2016,2,5]]},"references-count":36,"journal-issue":{"issue":"1","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2016,4,22]]}},"alternative-id":["BFsrep20281"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/srep20281","relation":{},"ISSN":["2045-2322"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2045-2322","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2016,2,5]]},"assertion":[{"value":"30 July 2015","order":1,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"30 December 2015","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"5 February 2016","order":3,"name":"first_online","label":"First Online","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"The authors declare no competing financial interests.","order":1,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Competing interests"}}],"article-number":"20281"}}