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Our study area is Chesapeake Bay, a highly productive ecosystem providing natural resources, transportation, and recreation for nearly 16 million people inhabiting a 165,000-km<jats:sup>2<\/jats:sup> watershed. Since World War II, nutrient over-enrichment has led to multiple ecosystem impairments caused by increased phytoplankton biomass as chlorophyll<jats:italic>-a<\/jats:italic> (<jats:italic>chl-a<\/jats:italic>). Doubled nitrogen (N) loadings from 1945\u20131980 led to increased <jats:italic>chl-a<\/jats:italic>, reduced water clarity, and low dissolved oxygen (DO), while decreased N loadings from 1981\u20132012 suggest modest improvement. The recent 30+ years are characterized by high inter-annual variability of <jats:italic>chl-a<\/jats:italic>, coinciding with irregular dry and wet periods, complicating the detection of long-term trends. Here, we synthesize time-series data for historical and recent N loadings (TN, NO<jats:sub>2<\/jats:sub>\u2009+\u2009NO<jats:sub>3<\/jats:sub>), <jats:italic>chl-a<\/jats:italic>, floral composition, and net primary productivity (NPP) to distinguish secular changes caused by nutrient over-enrichment from spatio-temporal variability imposed by climatic conditions. Wet years showed higher <jats:italic>chl-a<\/jats:italic>, higher diatom abundance, and increased NPP, while dry years showed lower <jats:italic>chl-a<\/jats:italic>, lower diatom abundance, and decreased NPP. Our findings support a conceptual model wherein variable climatic conditions dominate recent phytoplankton dynamics against a backdrop of nutrient over-enrichment, emphasizing the need to separate these effects to gauge progress toward improving water quality in estuaries.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1038\/srep23773","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2016,3,30]],"date-time":"2016-03-30T12:39:24Z","timestamp":1459341564000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":64,"title":["Variable climatic conditions dominate recent phytoplankton dynamics in Chesapeake Bay"],"prefix":"10.1038","volume":"6","author":[{"given":"Lawrence W.","family":"Harding,","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Michael E.","family":"Mallonee","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Elgin S.","family":"Perry","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"W. 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