{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,20]],"date-time":"2026-03-20T19:59:44Z","timestamp":1774036784397,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":51,"publisher":"Springer Science and Business Media LLC","issue":"7378","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2011,11,16]],"date-time":"2011-11-16T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1321401600000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/www.springer.com\/tdm"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Nature"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2011,12]]},"DOI":"10.1038\/nature10650","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2011,11,15]],"date-time":"2011-11-15T20:24:45Z","timestamp":1321388685000},"page":"516-519","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":536,"title":["Additive threats from pathogens, climate and land-use change for global amphibian diversity"],"prefix":"10.1038","volume":"480","author":[{"given":"Christian","family":"Hof","sequence":"first","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Miguel B.","family":"Ara\u00fajo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Walter","family":"Jetz","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Carsten","family":"Rahbek","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2011,11,16]]},"reference":[{"key":"BFnature10650_CR1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1783","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1103538","volume":"306","author":"SN Stuart","year":"2004","unstructured":"Stuart, S. N. et al. Status and trends of amphibian declines and extinctions worldwide. Science 306, 1783\u20131786 (2004)","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"BFnature10650_CR2","unstructured":"IUCN. An Analysis of Amphibians on the 2008 IUCN Red List \u3008 http:\/\/www.iucnredlist.org\/initiatives\/amphibians \u3009 (2008)"},{"key":"BFnature10650_CR3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"11466","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.0801921105","volume":"105","author":"DB Wake","year":"2008","unstructured":"Wake, D. B. & Vredenburg, V. T. Are we in the midst of the sixth mass extinction? A view from the world of amphibians. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 105, 11466\u201311473 (2008)","journal-title":"Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA"},{"key":"BFnature10650_CR4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"597","DOI":"10.1046\/j.1461-0248.2002.00352.x","volume":"5","author":"AR Blaustein","year":"2002","unstructured":"Blaustein, A. R. & Kiesecker, J. M. Complexity in conservation: lessons from the global decline of amphibian populations. Ecol. Lett. 5, 597\u2013608 (2002)","journal-title":"Ecol. Lett."},{"key":"BFnature10650_CR5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"271","DOI":"10.1016\/j.biocon.2005.04.009","volume":"125","author":"TJC Beebee","year":"2005","unstructured":"Beebee, T. J. C. & Griffiths, R. A. The amphibian decline crisis: a watershed for conservation biology? Biol. Conserv. 125, 271\u2013285 (2005)","journal-title":"Biol. Conserv."},{"key":"BFnature10650_CR6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"752","DOI":"10.1038\/35008052","volume":"404","author":"JE Houlahan","year":"2000","unstructured":"Houlahan, J. E., Findlay, C. S., Schmidt, B. R., Meyer, A. H. & Kuzmin, S. L. Quantitative evidence for global amphibian population declines. Nature 404, 752\u2013755 (2000)","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"BFnature10650_CR7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1775","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1149374","volume":"318","author":"CG Becker","year":"2007","unstructured":"Becker, C. G., Fonseca, C. R., Haddad, C. F. B., Batista, R. F. & Prado, P. I. Habitat split and the global decline of amphibians. Science 318, 1775\u20131777 (2007)","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"BFnature10650_CR8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"253","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2006.3713","volume":"274","author":"J Bosch","year":"2007","unstructured":"Bosch, J., Carrascal, L. M., Duran, L., Walker, S. & Fisher, M. C. Climate change and outbreaks of amphibian chytridiomycosis in a montane area of Central Spain; is there a link? Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B 274, 253\u2013260 (2007)","journal-title":"Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B"},{"key":"BFnature10650_CR9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"161","DOI":"10.1038\/nature04246","volume":"439","author":"JA Pounds","year":"2006","unstructured":"Pounds, J. A. et al. Widespread amphibian extinctions from epidemic disease driven by global warming. Nature 439, 161\u2013167 (2006)","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"BFnature10650_CR10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e72","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pbio.0060072","volume":"6","author":"KR Lips","year":"2008","unstructured":"Lips, K. R., Diffendorfer, J., Mendelson, J. R. & Sears, M. W. Riding the wave: reconciling the roles of disease and climate change in amphibian declines. PLoS Biol. 6, e72 (2008)","journal-title":"PLoS Biol."},{"key":"BFnature10650_CR11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"38","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1523-1739.2009.01403.x","volume":"24","author":"JJ Lawler","year":"2010","unstructured":"Lawler, J. J., Shafer, S. L. & Blaustein, A. R. Projected climate impacts for the amphibians of the Western Hemisphere. Conserv. Biol. 24, 38\u201350 (2010)","journal-title":"Conserv. Biol."},{"key":"BFnature10650_CR12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1712","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-2699.2006.01482.x","volume":"33","author":"MB Ara\u00fajo","year":"2006","unstructured":"Ara\u00fajo, M. B., Thuiller, W. & Pearson, R. G. Climate warming and the decline of amphibians and reptiles in Europe. J. Biogeogr. 33, 1712\u20131728 (2006)","journal-title":"J. Biogeogr."},{"key":"BFnature10650_CR13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"82","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1755-263X.2008.00015.x","volume":"1","author":"J Bielby","year":"2008","unstructured":"Bielby, J., Cooper, N., Cunningham, A. A., Garner, T. W. J. & Purvis, A. Predicting susceptibility to future declines in the world\u2019s frogs. Conservation Letters 1, 82\u201390 (2008)","journal-title":"Conservation Letters"},{"key":"BFnature10650_CR14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e1636","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0001636","volume":"3","author":"NS Sodhi","year":"2008","unstructured":"Sodhi, N. S. et al. Measuring the meltdown: drivers of global amphibian extinction and decline. PLoS One 3, e1636 (2008)","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"key":"BFnature10650_CR15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"9893","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1014497108","volume":"108","author":"CG Becker","year":"2011","unstructured":"Becker, C. G. & Zamudio, K. R. Tropical amphibian populations experience higher disease risk in natural habitats. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 108, 9893\u20139898 (2011)","journal-title":"Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA"},{"key":"BFnature10650_CR16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"17436","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.0806368105","volume":"105","author":"JR Rohr","year":"2008","unstructured":"Rohr, J. R., Raffel, T. R., Romansic, J. M., McCallum, H. & Hudson, P. J. Evaluating the links between climate, disease spread, and amphibian declines. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 105, 17436\u201317441 (2008)","journal-title":"Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA"},{"key":"BFnature10650_CR17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"201","DOI":"10.3354\/dao02197","volume":"92","author":"D R\u00f6dder","year":"2010","unstructured":"R\u00f6dder, D., Kielgast, J. & L\u00f6tters, S. Future potential distribution of the emerging amphibian chytrid fungus under anthropogenic climate change. Dis. Aquat. Organ. 92, 201\u2013207 (2010)","journal-title":"Dis. Aquat. Organ."},{"key":"BFnature10650_CR18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"25","DOI":"10.5751\/ES-01818-110225","volume":"11","author":"DP van Vuuren","year":"2006","unstructured":"van Vuuren, D. P., Sala, O. E. & Pereira, H. M. The future of vascular plant diversity under four global scenarios. Ecol. Soc. 11, 25 (2006)","journal-title":"Ecol. Soc."},{"key":"BFnature10650_CR19","unstructured":"Alcamo, J. et al. Global Change Scenarios of the 21st Century, Results from the IMAGE 2.1 Model 3\u201396 (Elsevier, 1998)"},{"key":"BFnature10650_CR20","unstructured":"Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. Ecosystems and Human Well-Being: Scenarios. (Island, 2005)"},{"key":"BFnature10650_CR21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"141","DOI":"10.1046\/j.1472-4642.2003.00016.x","volume":"9","author":"P Daszak","year":"2003","unstructured":"Daszak, P., Cunningham, A. A. & Hyatt, A. D. Infectious disease and amphibian population declines. Divers. Distrib. 9, 141\u2013150 (2003)","journal-title":"Divers. Distrib."},{"key":"BFnature10650_CR22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"109","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tree.2009.07.011","volume":"25","author":"AM Kilpatrick","year":"2010","unstructured":"Kilpatrick, A. M., Briggs, C. J. & Daszak, P. The ecology and impact of chytridiomycosis: an emerging disease of amphibians. Trends Ecol. Evol. 25, 109\u2013118 (2010)","journal-title":"Trends Ecol. Evol."},{"key":"BFnature10650_CR23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"242","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1600-0587.2010.06309.x","volume":"33","author":"C Hof","year":"2010","unstructured":"Hof, C., Rahbek, C. & Ara\u00fajo, M. B. Phylogenetic signals in the climatic niches of the world\u2019s amphibians. Ecography 33, 242\u2013250 (2010)","journal-title":"Ecography"},{"key":"BFnature10650_CR24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2987","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-2486.2011.02418.x","volume":"17","author":"C Hof","year":"2011","unstructured":"Hof, C., Levinsky, I., Ara\u00fajo, M. B. & Rahbek, R. Rethinking species\u2019 ability to cope with rapid climate change. Glob. Change Biol. 17, 2987\u20132990 (2011)","journal-title":"Glob. Change Biol."},{"key":"BFnature10650_CR25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1407","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-2699.2010.02300.x","volume":"37","author":"MB Ashcroft","year":"2010","unstructured":"Ashcroft, M. B. Identifying refugia from climate change. J. Biogeogr. 37, 1407\u20131413 (2010)","journal-title":"J. Biogeogr."},{"key":"BFnature10650_CR26","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"8292","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.0913792107","volume":"107","author":"AB Phillimore","year":"2010","unstructured":"Phillimore, A. B., Hadfield, J. D., Jones, O. R. & Smithers, R. J. Differences in spawning date between populations of common frog reveal local adaptation. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 107, 8292\u20138297 (2010)","journal-title":"Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA"},{"key":"BFnature10650_CR27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e157","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pbio.0050157","volume":"5","author":"W Jetz","year":"2007","unstructured":"Jetz, W., Wilcove, D. S. & Dobson, A. P. Projected impacts of climate and land-use change on the global diversity of birds. PLoS Biol. 5, e157 (2007)","journal-title":"PLoS Biol."},{"key":"BFnature10650_CR28","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2306","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1007217108","volume":"108","author":"LJ Beaumont","year":"2011","unstructured":"Beaumont, L. J. et al. Impacts of climate change on the world\u2019s most exceptional ecoregions. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 108, 2306\u20132311 (2011)","journal-title":"Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA"},{"key":"BFnature10650_CR29","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"42","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tree.2006.09.010","volume":"22","author":"MB Ara\u00fajo","year":"2007","unstructured":"Ara\u00fajo, M. B. & New, M. Ensemble forecasting of species distributions. Trends Ecol. Evol. 22, 42\u201347 (2007)","journal-title":"Trends Ecol. Evol."},{"key":"BFnature10650_CR30","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1383","DOI":"10.1175\/BAMS-88-9-1383","volume":"88","author":"GA Meehl","year":"2007","unstructured":"Meehl, G. A. et al. The WCRP CMIP3 multimodel dataset: a new era in climate change research. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 88, 1383\u20131394 (2007)","journal-title":"Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc."},{"key":"BFnature10650_CR31","unstructured":"IUCN. Global Amphibian Assessment \u3008 http:\/\/www.iucnredlist.org\/initiatives\/amphibians\/ \u3009 (2004)"},{"key":"BFnature10650_CR32","unstructured":"IPCC. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, Prepared for the Third Assessment Report (IPCC, 2000)"},{"key":"BFnature10650_CR33","unstructured":"IPCC. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Summary for Policymakers (IPCC, 2007)"},{"key":"BFnature10650_CR34","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"111","DOI":"10.1046\/j.1472-4642.2003.00011.x","volume":"9","author":"C Carey","year":"2003","unstructured":"Carey, C. & Alexander, M. A. Climate change and amphibian declines: is there a link? Divers. Distrib. 9, 111\u2013121 (2003)","journal-title":"Divers. Distrib."},{"key":"BFnature10650_CR35","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"8","DOI":"10.1111\/j.2007.0906-7590.05318.x","volume":"31","author":"MB Ara\u00fajo","year":"2008","unstructured":"Ara\u00fajo, M. B. et al. Quaternary climate changes explain diversity among reptiles and amphibians. Ecography 31, 8\u201315 (2008)","journal-title":"Ecography"},{"key":"BFnature10650_CR36","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"13384","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.0704469104","volume":"104","author":"AH Hurlbert","year":"2007","unstructured":"Hurlbert, A. H. & Jetz, W. Species richness, hotspots, and the scale dependence of range maps in ecology and conservation. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 104, 13384\u201313389 (2007)","journal-title":"Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA"},{"key":"BFnature10650_CR37","unstructured":"Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. Ecosystems and Human Well-Being: Synthesis (Island, 2005)"},{"key":"BFnature10650_CR38","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"115","DOI":"10.1016\/S0304-3800(02)00327-7","volume":"160","author":"O Farber","year":"2003","unstructured":"Farber, O. & Kadmon, R. Assessment of alternative approaches for bioclimatic modeling with special emphasis on the Mahalanobis distance. Ecol. Modell. 160, 115\u2013130 (2003)","journal-title":"Ecol. Modell."},{"key":"BFnature10650_CR39","unstructured":"Bioensembles:. software for computer intensive ensemble forecasting of species distributions under climate change v. 1.0 (privately distributed, Madrid, Goi\u00e1s, \u00c9vora, 2009)"},{"key":"BFnature10650_CR40","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"231","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecolmodel.2005.03.026","volume":"190","author":"SJ Phillips","year":"2006","unstructured":"Phillips, S. J., Anderson, R. P. & Schapire, R. E. Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions. Ecol. Modell. 190, 231\u2013259 (2006)","journal-title":"Ecol. Modell."},{"key":"BFnature10650_CR41","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"161","DOI":"10.1111\/j.0906-7590.2008.5203.x","volume":"31","author":"SJ Phillips","year":"2008","unstructured":"Phillips, S. J. & Dudik, M. Modeling of species distributions with Maxent: new extensions and a comprehensive evaluation. Ecography 31, 161\u2013175 (2008)","journal-title":"Ecography"},{"key":"BFnature10650_CR42","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1504","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-2486.2005.01000.x","volume":"11","author":"MB Ara\u00fajo","year":"2005","unstructured":"Ara\u00fajo, M. B., Pearson, R. G., Thuiller, W. & Erhard, M. Validation of species\u2013climate impact models under climate change. Glob. Change Biol. 11, 1504\u20131513 (2005)","journal-title":"Glob. Change Biol."},{"key":"BFnature10650_CR43","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"110","DOI":"10.1111\/j.0906-7590.2005.04042.x","volume":"28","author":"MA Smith","year":"2005","unstructured":"Smith, M. A. & Green, D. M. Dispersal and the metapopulation paradigm in amphibian ecology and conservation: are all amphibian populations metapopulations? Ecography 28, 110\u2013128 (2005)","journal-title":"Ecography"},{"key":"BFnature10650_CR44","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1016\/S0304-3800(01)00388-X","volume":"148","author":"DRB Stockwell","year":"2002","unstructured":"Stockwell, D. R. B. & Peterson, A. T. Effects of sample size on accuracy of species distribution models. Ecol. Modell. 148, 1\u201313 (2002)","journal-title":"Ecol. Modell."},{"key":"BFnature10650_CR45","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"811","DOI":"10.1111\/j.0021-8901.2004.00943.x","volume":"41","author":"JM McPherson","year":"2004","unstructured":"McPherson, J. M., Jetz, W. & Rogers, D. J. The effects of species\u2019 range sizes on the accuracy of distribution models: ecological phenomenon or statistical artefact? J. Appl. Ecol. 41, 811\u2013823 (2004)","journal-title":"J. Appl. Ecol."},{"key":"BFnature10650_CR46","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"763","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1472-4642.2008.00482.x","volume":"14","author":"MS Wisz","year":"2008","unstructured":"Wisz, M. S. et al. Effects of sample size on the performance of species distribution models. Divers. Distrib. 14, 763\u2013773 (2008)","journal-title":"Divers. Distrib."},{"key":"BFnature10650_CR47","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"3346","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecolmodel.2011.07.011","volume":"222","author":"HK Nenz\u00e9n","year":"2011","unstructured":"Nenz\u00e9n, H. K. & Ara\u00fajo, M. B. Choice of threshold alters projections of species range shifts under climate change. Ecol. Modell. 222, 3346\u20133354 (2011)","journal-title":"Ecol. Modell."},{"key":"BFnature10650_CR48","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"484","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1461-0248.2011.01610.x","volume":"14","author":"MB Ara\u00fajo","year":"2011","unstructured":"Ara\u00fajo, M. B., Alagador, D., Cabeza, M., Nogues-Bravo, D. & Thuiller, W. Climate change threatens European conservation areas. Ecol. Lett. 14, 484\u2013492 (2011)","journal-title":"Ecol. Lett."},{"key":"BFnature10650_CR49","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"529","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1466-822X.2005.00182.x","volume":"14","author":"MB Ara\u00fajo","year":"2005","unstructured":"Ara\u00fajo, M. B., Whittaker, R. J., Ladle, R. J. & Erhard, M. Reducing uncertainty in projections of extinction risk from climate change. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 14, 529\u2013538 (2005)","journal-title":"Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr."},{"key":"BFnature10650_CR50","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1704","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-2699.2006.01460.x","volume":"33","author":"RG Pearson","year":"2006","unstructured":"Pearson, R. G. et al. Model-based uncertainty in species range prediction. J. Biogeogr. 33, 1704\u20131711 (2006)","journal-title":"J. Biogeogr."},{"key":"BFnature10650_CR51","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"897","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1600-0587.2009.06196.x","volume":"32","author":"JAF Diniz-Filho","year":"2009","unstructured":"Diniz-Filho, J. A. F. et al. Partitioning and mapping uncertainties in ensembles of forecasts of species turnover under climate change. Ecography 32, 897\u2013906 (2009)","journal-title":"Ecography"}],"container-title":["Nature"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"http:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/nature10650.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"http:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/nature10650","content-type":"text\/html","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"http:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/nature10650.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2024,4,14]],"date-time":"2024-04-14T18:58:33Z","timestamp":1713121113000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/nature10650"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2011,11,16]]},"references-count":51,"journal-issue":{"issue":"7378","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2011,12]]}},"alternative-id":["BFnature10650"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/nature10650","relation":{},"ISSN":["0028-0836","1476-4687"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0028-0836","type":"print"},{"value":"1476-4687","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2011,11,16]]}}}