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While temperature-related health impacts are projected to increase with global warming, the influence of population aging on these trends remains unclear. Here we show that at 1.5\u2009\u00b0C, 2\u2009\u00b0C, and 3\u2009\u00b0C of global warming, heat-related mortality in 800 locations across 50 countries\/areas will increase by 0.5%, 1.0%, and 2.5%, respectively; among which 1 in 5 to 1 in 4 heat-related deaths can be attributed to population aging. Despite a projected decrease in cold-related mortality due to progressive warming alone, population aging will mostly counteract this trend, leading to a net increase in cold-related mortality by 0.1%\u20130.4% at 1.5\u20133\u2009\u00b0C global warming. Our findings indicate that population aging constitutes a crucial driver for future heat- and cold-related deaths, with increasing mortality burden for both heat and cold due to the aging population.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467-024-45901-z","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,2,27]],"date-time":"2024-02-27T18:02:25Z","timestamp":1709056945000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":83,"title":["Impact of population aging on future temperature-related mortality at different global warming levels"],"prefix":"10.1038","volume":"15","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0164-1112","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Kai","family":"Chen","sequence":"first","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2679-0464","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Evan","family":"de Schrijver","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Sidharth","family":"Sivaraj","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8890-6848","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Francesco","family":"Sera","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1410-3337","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Noah","family":"Scovronick","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Leiwen","family":"Jiang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5516-6396","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Dominic","family":"Roye","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Eric","family":"Lavigne","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Jan","family":"Kysel\u00fd","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Ale\u0161","family":"Urban","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1084-2442","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Alexandra","family":"Schneider","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9633-2752","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Veronika","family":"Huber","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Joana","family":"Madureira","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3345-6197","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Malcolm N.","family":"Mistry","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1738-7745","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Ivana","family":"Cvijanovic","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"name":"MCC Collaborative Research Network","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Ben","family":"Armstrong","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Rochelle","family":"Schneider","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Aurelio","family":"Tobias","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Christofer","family":"Astrom","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Yuming","family":"Guo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Yasushi","family":"Honda","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Rosana","family":"Abrutzky","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Shilu","family":"Tong","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Micheline","family":"de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Paulo Hilario Nascimento","family":"Saldiva","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Patricia Matus","family":"Correa","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Nicol\u00e1s Vald\u00e9s","family":"Ortega","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Haidong","family":"Kan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Samuel","family":"Osorio","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Hans","family":"Orru","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Ene","family":"Indermitte","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Jouni J. 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