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Here we report a new conceptual framework to analyze and model this phenomenon. The framework represents the changes in brain electroencephalogram activity during the transition into sleep as a trajectory in a normalized feature space. We use the framework to show that the brain\u2019s wake-to-sleep transition follows bifurcation dynamics with a distinct tipping point preceded by a critical slowing down. We validate the bifurcation dynamics in two independent datasets, which include more than 1,000 human participants. Finally, we demonstrate the framework\u2019s utility by predicting a person\u2019s progression into sleep in real time with seconds temporal resolution and over 0.95 average accuracy.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1038\/s41593-025-02091-1","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,28]],"date-time":"2025-10-28T10:04:19Z","timestamp":1761645859000},"page":"2515-2525","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":5,"title":["Falling asleep follows a predictable bifurcation dynamic"],"prefix":"10.1038","volume":"28","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6210-5997","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Junheng","family":"Li","sequence":"first","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Anastasia","family":"Ilina","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8738-5825","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Robert","family":"Peach","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Tianyu","family":"Wei","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5137-6313","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Edward","family":"Rhodes","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Valeria","family":"Jaramillo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Ines R.","family":"Violante","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1089-5675","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Mauricio","family":"Barahona","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5314-1008","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Derk-Jan","family":"Dijk","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2002-9049","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Nir","family":"Grossman","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,28]]},"reference":[{"key":"2091_CR1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"S232","DOI":"10.1139\/apnm-2020-0032","volume":"45","author":"J-P Chaput","year":"2020","unstructured":"Chaput, J.-P. et al. 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