{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,26]],"date-time":"2026-02-26T23:36:34Z","timestamp":1772148994073,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":106,"publisher":"Springer Science and Business Media LLC","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2019,3,12]],"date-time":"2019-03-12T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1552348800000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2019,3,12]],"date-time":"2019-03-12T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1552348800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["link.springer.com"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Sci Rep"],"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:p>The ability of ecological niche models (ENMs) to produce robust predictions for different time frames (i.e. temporal transferability) may be hindered by a lack of ecologically relevant predictors. Model performance may also be affected by species traits, which may reflect different responses to processes controlling species distribution. In this study, we tested four primary hypotheses involving the role of species traits and environmental predictors in ENM performance and transferability. We compared the predictive accuracy of ENMs based upon (1) climate, (2) land-use\/cover (LULC) and (3) ecosystem functional attributes (EFAs), and (4) the combination of these factors for 27 bird species within and beyond the time frame of model calibration. The combination of these factors significantly increased both model performance and transferability, highlighting the need to integrate climate, LULC and EFAs to improve biodiversity projections. However, the overall model transferability was low (being only acceptable for less than 25% of species), even under a hierarchical modelling approach, which calls for great caution in the use of ENMs to predict bird distributions under global change scenarios. Our findings also indicate that positive effects of species traits on predictive accuracy within model calibration are not necessarily translated into higher temporal transferability.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-019-40766-5","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2019,3,12]],"date-time":"2019-03-12T11:03:52Z","timestamp":1552388632000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":82,"title":["Effects of species traits and environmental predictors on performance and transferability of ecological niche models"],"prefix":"10.1038","volume":"9","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1983-936X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Adri\u00e1n","family":"Regos","sequence":"first","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Laura","family":"Gagne","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Domingo","family":"Alcaraz-Segura","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Jo\u00e3o P.","family":"Honrado","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8669-022X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jes\u00fas","family":"Dom\u00ednguez","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2019,3,12]]},"reference":[{"key":"40766_CR1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"147","DOI":"10.1016\/S0304-3800(00)00354-9","volume":"135","author":"A Guisan","year":"2000","unstructured":"Guisan, A. & Zimmermann, N. E. Predictive habitat distribution models in ecology. Ecol. Modell. 135, 147\u2013186 (2000).","journal-title":"Ecol. Modell."},{"key":"40766_CR2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"101","DOI":"10.1016\/S0304-3800(02)00205-3","volume":"157","author":"MP Austin","year":"2002","unstructured":"Austin, M. P. Spatial prediction of species distribution: an interface between ecological theory and statistical modelling. Ecol. Modell. 157, 101\u2013118 (2002).","journal-title":"Ecol. Modell."},{"key":"40766_CR3","first-page":"e111996","volume":"9","author":"L Brotons","year":"2014","unstructured":"Brotons, L. Species Distribution Models and Impact Factor Growth in Environmental. Journals: Methodological Fashion or the Attraction of Global Change Science. PLoS One 9, e111996 (2014).","journal-title":"Journals: Methodological Fashion or the Attraction of Global Change Science. PLoS One"},{"key":"40766_CR4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1677","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-2699.2006.01584.x","volume":"33","author":"MB Ara\u00fajo","year":"2006","unstructured":"Ara\u00fajo, M. B. & Guisan, A. Five (or so) challenges for species distribution modelling. J. Biogeogr. 33, 1677\u20131688 (2006).","journal-title":"J. Biogeogr."},{"key":"40766_CR5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"993","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1461-0248.2005.00792.x","volume":"8","author":"A Guisan","year":"2005","unstructured":"Guisan, A. & Thuiller, W. Predicting species distribution: offering more than simple habitat models. Ecol. Lett. 8, 993\u20131009 (2005).","journal-title":"Ecol. Lett."},{"key":"40766_CR6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"387","DOI":"10.1016\/j.baae.2006.11.001","volume":"8","author":"CF Dormann","year":"2007","unstructured":"Dormann, C. F. Promising the future? Global change projections of species distributions. Basic Appl. Ecol. 8, 387\u2013397 (2007).","journal-title":"Basic Appl. Ecol."},{"key":"40766_CR7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"127","DOI":"10.1139\/er-2016-0045","volume":"25","author":"W Werkowska","year":"2017","unstructured":"Werkowska, W., M\u00e1rquez, A. L., Real, R. & Acevedo, P. A practical overview of transferability in species distribution modeling. Environ. Rev. 25, 127\u2013133 (2017).","journal-title":"Environ. Rev."},{"key":"40766_CR8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"550","DOI":"10.1111\/j.0906-7590.2007.05102.x","volume":"30","author":"A Townsend Peterson","year":"2007","unstructured":"Townsend Peterson, A., Pape\u015f, M. & Eaton, M. Transferability and model evaluation in ecological niche modeling: A comparison of GARP and Maxent. Ecography (Cop.). 30, 550\u2013560 (2007).","journal-title":"Ecography (Cop.)."},{"key":"40766_CR9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1689","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-2699.2006.01466.x","volume":"33","author":"CF Randin","year":"2006","unstructured":"Randin, C. F. et al. Are niche-based species distribution models transferable in space? J. Biogeogr. 33, 1689\u20131703 (2006).","journal-title":"J. Biogeogr."},{"key":"40766_CR10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"62","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecolmodel.2015.09.019","volume":"320","author":"J Duque-Lazo","year":"2016","unstructured":"Duque-Lazo, J., van Gils, H., Groen, T. A. & Navarro-Cerrillo, R. M. Transferability of species distribution models: The case of Phytophthora cinnamomi in Southwest Spain and Southwest Australia. Ecol. Modell. 320, 62\u201370 (2016).","journal-title":"Ecol. Modell."},{"key":"40766_CR11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"135","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecolmodel.2016.10.004","volume":"342","author":"LJ Beaumont","year":"2016","unstructured":"Beaumont, L. J. et al. Which species distribution models are more (or less) likely to project broad-scale, climate-induced shifts in species ranges? Ecol. Modell. 342, 135\u2013146 (2016).","journal-title":"Ecol. Modell."},{"key":"40766_CR12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"276","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1600-0587.2011.06999.x","volume":"35","author":"RK Heikkinen","year":"2012","unstructured":"Heikkinen, R. K., Marmion, M. & Luoto, M. Does the interpolation accuracy of species distribution models come at the expense of transferability? Ecography (Cop.). 35, 276\u2013288 (2012).","journal-title":"Ecography (Cop.)."},{"key":"40766_CR13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2519","DOI":"10.1007\/s10530-017-1460-y","volume":"19","author":"GP Zhu","year":"2017","unstructured":"Zhu, G. P. & Peterson, A. T. Do consensus models outperform individual models? Transferability evaluations of diverse modeling approaches for an invasive moth. Biol. Invasions 19, 2519\u20132532 (2017).","journal-title":"Biol. Invasions"},{"key":"40766_CR14","first-page":"1","volume":"xx","author":"KL Yates","year":"2018","unstructured":"Yates, K. L. et al. Outstanding Challenges in the Transferability of Ecological Models. Trends Ecol. Evol. xx, 1\u201313 (2018).","journal-title":"Trends Ecol. Evol."},{"key":"40766_CR15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"260","DOI":"10.1111\/j.2041-210X.2011.00170.x","volume":"3","author":"SJ Wenger","year":"2012","unstructured":"Wenger, S. J. & Olden, J. D. Assessing transferability of ecological models: An underappreciated aspect of statistical validation. Methods Ecol. Evol. 3, 260\u2013267 (2012).","journal-title":"Methods Ecol. Evol."},{"key":"40766_CR16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"904","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1466-8238.2010.00635.x","volume":"20","author":"NW Synes","year":"2011","unstructured":"Synes, N. W. & Osborne, P. E. Choice of predictor variables as a source of uncertainty in continental-scale species distribution modelling under climate change. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 20, 904\u2013914 (2011).","journal-title":"Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr."},{"key":"40766_CR17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"275","DOI":"10.1111\/geb.12530","volume":"26","author":"B Petitpierre","year":"2017","unstructured":"Petitpierre, B., Broennimann, O., Kueffer, C., Daehler, C. & Guisan, A. Selecting predictors to maximize the transferability of species distribution models: lessons from cross-continental plant invasions. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 26, 275\u2013287 (2017).","journal-title":"Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr."},{"key":"40766_CR18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"995","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-2699.2012.02707.x","volume":"39","author":"I K\u00fchn","year":"2012","unstructured":"K\u00fchn, I. & Dormann, C. F. Less than eight (and a half) misconceptions of spatial analysis. J. Biogeogr. 39, 995\u2013998 (2012).","journal-title":"J. Biogeogr."},{"key":"40766_CR19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2505","DOI":"10.1111\/gcb.13272","volume":"22","author":"N Titeux","year":"2016","unstructured":"Titeux, N. et al. Biodiversity scenarios neglect future land-use change. Glob. Chang. Biol. 22, 2505\u20132515 (2016).","journal-title":"Glob. Chang. Biol."},{"key":"40766_CR20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1231","DOI":"10.1111\/ddi.12624","volume":"23","author":"N Titeux","year":"2017","unstructured":"Titeux, N. et al. Global scenarios for biodiversity need to better integrate climate and land use change. Divers. Distrib. 23, 1231\u20131234 (2017).","journal-title":"Divers. Distrib."},{"key":"40766_CR21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"385","DOI":"10.1111\/geb.12555","volume":"26","author":"C Sirami","year":"2017","unstructured":"Sirami, C. et al. Impacts of global change on species distributions: obstacles and solutions to integrate climate and land use. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 26, 385\u2013394 (2017).","journal-title":"Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr."},{"key":"40766_CR22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"122","DOI":"10.1002\/rse2.15","volume":"2","author":"N Pettorelli","year":"2016","unstructured":"Pettorelli, N. et al. Framing the concept of satellite remote sensing essential biodiversity variables: challenges and future directions. Remote Sens. Ecol. Conserv. 2, 122\u2013131 (2016).","journal-title":"Remote Sens. Ecol. Conserv."},{"key":"40766_CR23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"4","DOI":"10.1002\/rse2.7","volume":"1","author":"KS He","year":"2015","unstructured":"He, K. S. et al. Will remote sensing shape the next generation of species distribution models? Remote Sens. Ecol. Conserv. 1, 4\u201318 (2015).","journal-title":"Remote Sens. Ecol. Conserv."},{"key":"40766_CR24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1057","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-2664.2007.01348.x","volume":"44","author":"NE Zimmermann","year":"2007","unstructured":"Zimmermann, N. E., Edwards, T. C., Moisen, G. G., Frescino, T. S. & Blackard, J. A. Remote sensing-based predictors improve distribution models of rare, early successional and broadleaf tree species in Utah. J. Appl. Ecol. 44, 1057\u20131067 (2007).","journal-title":"J. Appl. Ecol."},{"key":"40766_CR25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"631","DOI":"10.1046\/j.1365-2486.2001.00387.x","volume":"7","author":"JM Paruelo","year":"2001","unstructured":"Paruelo, J. M., Burke, I. C. & Lauenroth, W. K. Land-use impact on ecosystem functioning in eastern Colorado, USA J. M. Paruelo, I. C. Burke and W. K. Lauenroth. Glob. Chang. Biol. 7, 631\u2013639 (2001).","journal-title":"Glob. Chang. Biol."},{"key":"40766_CR26","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"200","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1466-822X.2006.00215.x","volume":"15","author":"D Alcaraz","year":"2006","unstructured":"Alcaraz, D., Paruelo, J. & Cabello, J. Identification of current ecosystem functional types in the Iberian Peninsula. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 15, 200\u2013212 (2006).","journal-title":"Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr."},{"key":"40766_CR27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"86","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jag.2016.12.009","volume":"57","author":"D Alcaraz-Segura","year":"2017","unstructured":"Alcaraz-Segura, D. et al. Potential of satellite-derived ecosystem functional attributes to anticipate species range shifts. Int. J. Appl. Earth Obs. Geoinf. 57, 86\u201392 (2017).","journal-title":"Int. J. Appl. Earth Obs. Geoinf."},{"key":"40766_CR28","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e1601360","DOI":"10.1126\/sciadv.1601360","volume":"3","author":"K Thorup","year":"2017","unstructured":"Thorup, K. et al. Resource tracking within and across continents in long-distance bird migrants. Sci. Adv. 3, e1601360 (2017).","journal-title":"Sci. Adv."},{"key":"40766_CR29","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Tuanmu, M. N. & Jetz, W. A global, remote sensing-based characterization of terrestrial habitat heterogeneity for biodiversity and ecosystem modelling. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 24 (2015).","DOI":"10.1111\/geb.12365"},{"key":"40766_CR30","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1510","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-2699.2011.02479.x","volume":"38","author":"M-N Tuanmu","year":"2011","unstructured":"Tuanmu, M.-N. et al. Temporal transferability of wildlife habitat models: implications for habitat monitoring. J. Biogeogr. 38, 1510\u20131523 (2011).","journal-title":"J. Biogeogr."},{"key":"40766_CR31","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"403","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1466-8238.2007.00373.x","volume":"17","author":"J P\u00f6yry","year":"2008","unstructured":"P\u00f6yry, J., Luoto, M., Heikkinen, R. K. & Saarinen, K. Species traits are associated with the quality of bioclimatic models. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 17, 403\u2013414 (2008).","journal-title":"Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr."},{"key":"40766_CR32","first-page":"135","volume":"30","author":"JM McPherson","year":"2007","unstructured":"McPherson, J. M. & Jetz, W. Effects of species\u2019 ecology on the accuracy of distribution models. Ecography (Cop.). 30, 135\u2013151 (2007).","journal-title":"Ecography (Cop.)."},{"key":"40766_CR33","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"219","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ppees.2010.04.002","volume":"12","author":"J Hanspach","year":"2010","unstructured":"Hanspach, J., K\u00fchn, I., Pompe, S. & Klotz, S. Predictive performance of plant species distribution models depends on species traits. Perspect. Plant Ecol. Evol. Syst. 12, 219\u2013225 (2010).","journal-title":"Perspect. Plant Ecol. Evol. Syst."},{"key":"40766_CR34","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1081","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1600-0587.2010.6380.x","volume":"33","author":"J Vicente","year":"2010","unstructured":"Vicente, J., Alves, P., Randin, C., Guisan, A. & Honrado, J. What drives invasibility? A multi-model inference test and spatial modelling of alien plant species richness patterns in northern Portugal. Ecography (Cop.). 33, 1081\u20131092 (2010).","journal-title":"Ecography (Cop.)."},{"key":"40766_CR35","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","unstructured":"Nock, C. A., Vogt, R. J. & Beisner, B. E. Functional Traits. eLS 1\u20138, https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/9780470015902.a0026282 (2016).","DOI":"10.1002\/9780470015902.a0026282"},{"key":"40766_CR36","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"907","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1600-0587.2009.05883.x","volume":"32","author":"AD Syphard","year":"2009","unstructured":"Syphard, A. D. & Franklin, J. Differences in spatial predictions among species distribution modeling methods vary with species traits and environmental predictors. Ecography (Cop.). 32, 907\u2013918 (2009).","journal-title":"Ecography (Cop.)."},{"key":"40766_CR37","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1264","DOI":"10.1111\/geb.12204","volume":"23","author":"J Soininen","year":"2014","unstructured":"Soininen, J. & Luoto, M. Predictability in species distributions: A global analysis across organisms and ecosystems. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 23, 1264\u20131274 (2014).","journal-title":"Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr."},{"key":"40766_CR38","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"241","DOI":"10.1890\/10-1325.1","volume":"81","author":"SZ Dobrowski","year":"2011","unstructured":"Dobrowski, S. Z. et al. Modeling plant ranges over 75 years of climate change in California, USA: Temporal transferability and species traits. Ecol. Monogr. 81, 241\u2013257 (2011).","journal-title":"Ecol. Monogr."},{"key":"40766_CR39","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1293","DOI":"10.1111\/geb.12078","volume":"22","author":"A Eskildsen","year":"2013","unstructured":"Eskildsen, A. et al. Testing species distribution models across space and time: high latitude butterflies and recent warming. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 22, 1293\u20131303 (2013).","journal-title":"Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr."},{"key":"40766_CR40","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e0151024","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0151024","volume":"11","author":"GOU Wogan","year":"2016","unstructured":"Wogan, G. O. U. Life history traits and niche instability impact accuracy and temporal transferability for historically calibrated distribution models of North American birds. PLoS One 11, e0151024 (2016).","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"key":"40766_CR41","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"285","DOI":"10.1111\/j.0906-7590.2004.03740.x","volume":"3","author":"RG Pearson","year":"2004","unstructured":"Pearson, R. G., Dawson, T. P. & Liu, C. Modelling species distributions in Britain: a hierarchical integration of climate and land-cover data. Ecography (Cop.). 3, 285\u2013298 (2004).","journal-title":"Ecography (Cop.)."},{"key":"40766_CR42","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"361","DOI":"10.1046\/j.1466-822X.2003.00042.x","volume":"12","author":"RG Pearson","year":"2003","unstructured":"Pearson, R. G. & Dawson, T. P. Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of species: are bioclimate envelope models useful? Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 12, 361\u2013371 (2003).","journal-title":"Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr."},{"key":"40766_CR43","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"151","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecocom.2014.10.005","volume":"20","author":"JR Vicente","year":"2014","unstructured":"Vicente, J. R. et al. A framework for assessing the scale of influence of environmental factors on ecological patterns. Ecol. Complex. 20, 151\u2013156 (2014).","journal-title":"Ecol. Complex."},{"key":"40766_CR44","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"177","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1654-1103.2009.01133.x","volume":"21","author":"AD Syphard","year":"2010","unstructured":"Syphard, A. D. & Franklin, J. Species traits affect the performance of species distribution models for plants in southern California. J. Veg. Sci. 21, 177\u2013189 (2010).","journal-title":"J. Veg. Sci."},{"key":"40766_CR45","unstructured":"Mart\u00ednez-Cortizas, A. & P\u00e9rez-Alberti, A. Atlas Bioclim\u00e1tico de Galicia. (Xunta de Galicia, 1999)."},{"key":"40766_CR46","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jag.2014.11.010","volume":"38","author":"A Regos","year":"2015","unstructured":"Regos, A., Ninyerola, M., Mor\u00e9, G. & Pons, X. Linking land cover dynamics with driving forces in mountain landscape of the Northwestern Iberian Peninsula. Int. J. Appl. Earth Obs. Geoinf. 38, 1\u201314 (2015).","journal-title":"Int. J. Appl. Earth Obs. Geoinf."},{"key":"40766_CR47","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"199","DOI":"10.1007\/s10113-014-0740-7","volume":"16","author":"A Regos","year":"2016","unstructured":"Regos, A. et al. Rural abandoned landscapes and bird assemblages: winners and losers in the rewilding of a marginal mountain area (NW Spain). Reg. Environ. Chang. 16, 199\u2013211 (2016).","journal-title":"Reg. Environ. Chang."},{"key":"40766_CR48","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"199","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecolind.2018.02.008","volume":"89","author":"J Torres","year":"2018","unstructured":"Torres, J., Gon\u00e7alves, J., Marcos, B. & Honrado, J. Indicator-based assessment of post-fire recovery dynamics using satellite NDVI time-series. Ecol. Indic. 89, 199\u2013212 (2018).","journal-title":"Ecol. Indic."},{"key":"40766_CR49","unstructured":"Equipa A. Atlas das Aves Nidificantes em Portugal (\n                           1999\u20132005). Instituto da Conserva\u00e7\u00e3o da Natureza e da Biodiversidade Sociedade Portuguesa para o Estudo das Aves Parque Natural da Madeira e Secretaria Regional do Ambiente e do Mar. Ass\u00edrio and Alvim, Lisboa (2008)."},{"key":"40766_CR50","unstructured":"Mart\u00ed, R., Del Moral, J. C. & (Eds). Atlas de las Aves Reproductoras de Espa\u00f1a. Direcci\u00f3n General de Conservaci\u00f3n de la Naturaleza-Sociedad Espa\u00f1ola de Ornitolog\u00eda. Madrid (2003)."},{"key":"40766_CR51","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1527","DOI":"10.1890\/11-1930.1","volume":"93","author":"MB Ara\u00fajo","year":"2012","unstructured":"Ara\u00fajo, M. B. & Peterson, A. T. Uses and misuses of bioclimatic envelope modeling. Ecology 93, 1527\u20131539 (2012).","journal-title":"Ecology"},{"key":"40766_CR52","unstructured":"Voous, K. Atlas of European Birds. Nelson, London (1960)."},{"key":"40766_CR53","unstructured":"Hagemeijer, E. J. M. & Blair, M. J. The EBCC Atlas of European Breeding Birds: Their Distribution and Abundance. (T & AD Poycer, 1997)."},{"key":"40766_CR54","unstructured":"Dom\u00ednguez, J. et al. Atlas de los vertebrados terrestres reproductores en el Parque Natural Baixa Limia-Serra do Xur\u00e9s y ZEPVN-LIC Baixa Limia. (Xunta de Galicia, 2012)."},{"key":"40766_CR55","unstructured":"Pimenta, M. & Santar\u00e9m, M. Atlas das Aves do Parque Nacional da Peneda-Ger\u00eas. (Instituto da Conserva\u00e7\u00e3o da Natureza. Parque Nacional da Peneda-Ger\u00eas., 1996)."},{"key":"40766_CR56","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1823","DOI":"10.1002\/1097-0088(20001130)20:14<1823::AID-JOC566>3.0.CO;2-B","volume":"20","author":"M Ninyerola","year":"2000","unstructured":"Ninyerola, M., Pons, X. & Roure, J. M. A methodological approach of climatological modelling of air temperature and precipitation through GIS techniques. Int. J. Climatol. 20, 1823\u20131841 (2000).","journal-title":"Int. J. Climatol."},{"key":"40766_CR57","unstructured":"Hijmans, R. J., Phillips, S., Leathwick, J. & Elith, J. dismo: species distribution modeling. \u2013 R package ver. 1.1\u20134 (2016)."},{"key":"40766_CR58","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"19637","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.0901562106","volume":"106","author":"MW Tingley","year":"2009","unstructured":"Tingley, M. W., Monahan, W. B., Beissinger, S. R. & Moritz, C. Birds track their Grinnellian niche through a century of climate change. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 106, 19637\u201319643 (2009).","journal-title":"Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci."},{"key":"40766_CR59","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1504","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-2486.2005.01000.x","volume":"11","author":"MB Ara\u00fajo","year":"2005","unstructured":"Ara\u00fajo, M. B., Pearson, R. G., Thuiller, W. & Erhard, M. Validation of species\u2013climate impact models under climate change. Glob. Chang. Biol. 11, 1504\u20131513 (2005).","journal-title":"Glob. Chang. Biol."},{"key":"40766_CR60","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"195","DOI":"10.1016\/S0034-4257(02)00096-2","volume":"83","author":"A Huete","year":"2002","unstructured":"Huete, A. et al. Overview of the radiometric and biophysical performance of the MODIS vegetation indices. Remote Sens. Environ. 83, 195\u2013213 (2002).","journal-title":"Remote Sens. Environ."},{"key":"40766_CR61","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"308","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecolmodel.2015.05.035","volume":"312","author":"E Moreno-Amat","year":"2015","unstructured":"Moreno-Amat, E. et al. Impact of model complexity on cross-temporal transferability in Maxent species distribution models: An assessment using paleobotanical data. Ecol. Modell. 312, 308\u2013317 (2015).","journal-title":"Ecol. Modell."},{"key":"40766_CR62","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"17","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1466-822X.2004.00128.x","volume":"14","author":"MB Araujo","year":"2005","unstructured":"Araujo, M. B., Thuiller, W., Williams, P. H. & Reginster, I. Downscaling European species atlas distributions to a finer resolution: Implications for conservation planning. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 14, 17\u201330 (2005).","journal-title":"Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr."},{"key":"40766_CR63","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"499","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecolmodel.2005.08.007","volume":"192","author":"JM McPherson","year":"2006","unstructured":"McPherson, J. M., Jetz, W. & Rogers, D. J. Using coarse-grained occurrence data to predict species distributions at finer spatial resolutions\u2014possibilities and limitations. Ecol. Modell. 192, 499\u2013522 (2006).","journal-title":"Ecol. Modell."},{"key":"40766_CR64","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2577","DOI":"10.1007\/s10530-014-0688-z","volume":"16","author":"RF Fernandes","year":"2014","unstructured":"Fernandes, R. F. et al. A novel downscaling approach to predict plant invasions and improve local conservation actions. Biol. Invasions 16, 2577\u20132590 (2014).","journal-title":"Biol. Invasions"},{"key":"40766_CR65","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"369","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1600-0587.2008.05742.x","volume":"32","author":"W Thuiller","year":"2009","unstructured":"Thuiller, W., Lafourcade, B., Engler, R. & Ara\u00fajo, M. B. BIOMOD - a platform for ensemble forecasting of species distributions. Ecography (Cop.). 32, 369\u2013373 (2009).","journal-title":"Ecography (Cop.)."},{"key":"40766_CR66","unstructured":"Thuiller, W., Engler, R. & Breiner, F. T. biomod2: Ensemble Platform for Species Distribution Modeling. R package version 3.3-7, https:\/\/CRAN.R-project.org\/package=biomod2 (2016)."},{"key":"40766_CR67","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"43","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1472-4642.2010.00725.x","volume":"17","author":"J Elith","year":"2011","unstructured":"Elith, J. et al. A statistical explanation of MaxEnt for ecologists. Divers. Distrib. 17, 43\u201357 (2011).","journal-title":"Divers. Distrib."},{"key":"40766_CR68","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"38","DOI":"10.1017\/S0376892997000088","volume":"24","author":"AH Fielding","year":"1997","unstructured":"Fielding, A. H. & Bell, J. F. A review of methods for the assessment of prediction errors in conservation presence\/absence models. Environ. Conserv. 24, 38\u201349 (1997).","journal-title":"Environ. Conserv."},{"key":"40766_CR69","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"59","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1472-4642.2008.00491.x","volume":"15","author":"M Marmion","year":"2009","unstructured":"Marmion, M., Parviainen, M., Luoto, M., Heikkinen, R. K. & Thuiller, W. Evaluation of consensus methods in predictive species distribution modelling. Divers. Distrib. 15, 59\u201369 (2009).","journal-title":"Divers. Distrib."},{"key":"40766_CR70","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1285","DOI":"10.1126\/science.3287615","volume":"240","author":"JA Swets","year":"1988","unstructured":"Swets, J. A. Measuring the accuracy of diagnostic systems. Science 240, 1285\u20131293 (1988).","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"40766_CR71","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"408","DOI":"10.2307\/1935376","volume":"51","author":"T W. Schoener","year":"1970","unstructured":"W. Schoener, T. Nonsynchronous Spatial Overlap of Lizards in Patchy Habitats. Ecology 51, 408 (1970).","journal-title":"Ecology"},{"key":"40766_CR72","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"481","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1466-8238.2011.00698.x","volume":"21","author":"O Broennimann","year":"2012","unstructured":"Broennimann, O. et al. Measuring ecological niche overlap from occurrence and spatial environmental data. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 21, 481\u2013497 (2012).","journal-title":"Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr."},{"key":"40766_CR73","unstructured":"R Core Team. A language and environment for statistical computing. (R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria., 2015). at, http:\/\/www.r-project.org\/."},{"key":"40766_CR74","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"McCullagh, P. & Nelder, J. A. Generalized Linear Models. London, UK: Chapman and Hall (1989).","DOI":"10.1007\/978-1-4899-3242-6"},{"key":"40766_CR75","unstructured":"Burnham, K. P. & Anderson, D. R. Model Selection and Multimodel Inference: a Practical Information-theoretic Approach. (Springer, 2002)."},{"key":"40766_CR76","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"23","DOI":"10.1007\/s00265-010-1029-6","volume":"65","author":"KP Burnham","year":"2011","unstructured":"Burnham, K. P., Anderson, D. R. & Huyvaert, K. P. AIC model selection and multimodel inference in behavioral ecology: Some background, observations, and comparisons. Behav. Ecol. Sociobiol. 65, 23\u201335 (2011).","journal-title":"Behav. Ecol. Sociobiol."},{"key":"40766_CR77","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"951","DOI":"10.1890\/1051-0761(2003)13[951:WRTRAA]2.0.CO;2","volume":"13","author":"A Taylor","year":"2003","unstructured":"Taylor, A. & Knight, R. Wildlife responses to recreation and associated visitor perceptions. Ecol. Appl. 13, 951\u2013963 (2003).","journal-title":"Ecol. Appl."},{"key":"40766_CR78","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2213","DOI":"10.1890\/08-1304.1","volume":"90","author":"HM Kharouba","year":"2009","unstructured":"Kharouba, H. M., Algar, A. C. & Kerr, J. T. Historically calibrated predictions of butterfly species\u2019 range shift using global change as a pseudo-experiment. Ecology 90, 2213\u20132222 (2009).","journal-title":"Ecology"},{"key":"40766_CR79","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1867","DOI":"10.1002\/eap.1784","volume":"28","author":"A Regos","year":"2018","unstructured":"Regos, A. et al. Hindcasting the impacts of land-use changes on bird communities with species distribution models of Bird Atlas data. Ecol. Appl. 28, 1867\u20131883 (2018).","journal-title":"Ecol. Appl."},{"key":"40766_CR80","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e0199292","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0199292","volume":"13","author":"S Arenas-Castro","year":"2018","unstructured":"Arenas-Castro, S., Gon\u00e7alves, J., Alves, P., Alcaraz-Segura, D. & Honrado, J. P. Assessing the multi-scale predictive ability of ecosystem functional attributes for species distribution modelling. PLoS One 13, e0199292 (2018).","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"key":"40766_CR81","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"3575","DOI":"10.1111\/gcb.14138","volume":"24","author":"MC Fitzpatrick","year":"2018","unstructured":"Fitzpatrick, M. C. et al. How will climate novelty influence ecological forecasts? Using the Quaternary to assess future reliability. Glob. Chang. Biol. 24, 3575\u20133586 (2018).","journal-title":"Glob. Chang. Biol."},{"key":"40766_CR82","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"121","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1466-8238.2011.00657.x","volume":"21","author":"DR Roberts","year":"2012","unstructured":"Roberts, D. R. & Hamann, A. Predicting potential climate change impacts with bioclimate envelope models: a palaeoecological perspective. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 21, 121\u2013133 (2012).","journal-title":"Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr."},{"key":"40766_CR83","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","unstructured":"Qiao, H. et al. An evaluation of transferability of ecological niche models. Ecography, https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1111\/ecog.03986 (2018).","DOI":"10.1111\/ecog.03986"},{"key":"40766_CR84","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"538","DOI":"10.1890\/08-0348.1","volume":"19","author":"S Vallecillo","year":"2009","unstructured":"Vallecillo, S., Brotons, L. & Thuiller, W. Dangers of predicting bird species distributions in response to land-cover changes. Ecol. Appl. 19, 538\u2013549 (2009).","journal-title":"Ecol. Appl."},{"key":"40766_CR85","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"977","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1472-4642.2012.00899.x","volume":"18","author":"M De C\u00e1ceres","year":"2012","unstructured":"De C\u00e1ceres, M. & Brotons, L. Calibration of hybrid species distribution models: the value of general-purpose vs. targeted monitoring data. Divers. Distrib. 18, 977\u2013989 (2012).","journal-title":"Divers. Distrib."},{"key":"40766_CR86","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1511","DOI":"10.1111\/gcb.13992","volume":"24","author":"L Guevara","year":"2018","unstructured":"Guevara, L., Gerstner, B. E., Kass, J. M. & Anderson, R. P. Toward ecologically realistic predictions of species distributions: A cross-time example from tropical montane cloud forests. Glob. Chang. Biol. 24, 1511\u20131522 (2018).","journal-title":"Glob. Chang. Biol."},{"key":"40766_CR87","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"83","DOI":"10.1111\/ddi.12375","volume":"22","author":"A Regos","year":"2016","unstructured":"Regos, A. et al. Predicting the future effectiveness of protected areas for bird conservation in Mediterranean ecosystems under climate change and novel fire regime scenarios. Divers. Distrib. 22, 83\u201396 (2016).","journal-title":"Divers. Distrib."},{"key":"40766_CR88","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"982","DOI":"10.1111\/ecog.02990","volume":"41","author":"A Regos","year":"2018","unstructured":"Regos, A., Clavero, M., D\u2019Amen, M., Guisan, A. & Brotons, L. Wildfire-vegetation dynamics affect predictions of climate change impact on bird communities. Ecography 41, 982\u2013995 (2018).","journal-title":"Ecography"},{"key":"40766_CR89","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"82","DOI":"10.1111\/j.2041-210x.2012.00264.x","volume":"4","author":"P Keil","year":"2013","unstructured":"Keil, P., Belmaker, J., Wilson, A. M., Unitt, P. & Jetz, W. Downscaling of species distribution models: a hierarchical approach. Methods Ecol. Evol. 4, 82\u201394 (2013).","journal-title":"Methods Ecol. Evol."},{"key":"40766_CR90","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"375","DOI":"10.1017\/S0959270917000375","volume":"28","author":"L Tapia","year":"2018","unstructured":"Tapia, L., Regos, A., Gil-Carrera, A. & Dominguez, J. Assessing the temporal transferability of raptor distribution models: Implications for conservation. Bird Conserv. Int. 28, 375\u2013389 (2018).","journal-title":"Bird Conserv. Int."},{"key":"40766_CR91","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Jackson, S. T. & Overpeck, J. T. Paleontological Society Responses of Plant Populations and Communities to Environmental Changes of the Late Quaternary Responses of plant populations and communities to environmental changes of the late Quaternary 26, 194\u2013220 (2000).","DOI":"10.1017\/S0094837300026932"},{"key":"40766_CR92","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"913","DOI":"10.1111\/ecog.02881","volume":"40","author":"DR Roberts","year":"2017","unstructured":"Roberts, D. R. et al. Cross-validation strategies for data with temporal, spatial, hierarchical, or phylogenetic structure. Ecography (Cop.). 40, 913\u2013929 (2017).","journal-title":"Ecography (Cop.)."},{"key":"40766_CR93","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"617","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-2699.2011.02487.x","volume":"38","author":"M K\u00e9ry","year":"2011","unstructured":"K\u00e9ry, M. Towards the modelling of true species distributions. J. Biogeogr. 38, 617\u2013618 (2011).","journal-title":"J. Biogeogr."},{"key":"40766_CR94","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"504","DOI":"10.1111\/geb.12138","volume":"23","author":"JJ Lahoz-Monfort","year":"2014","unstructured":"Lahoz-Monfort, J. J., Guillera-Arroita, G. & Wintle, B. a. Imperfect detection impacts the performance of species distribution models. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 23, 504\u2013515 (2014).","journal-title":"Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr."},{"key":"40766_CR95","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"299","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecolmodel.2004.12.012","volume":"185","author":"J Seoane","year":"2005","unstructured":"Seoane, J., Carrascal, L. M., Alonso, C. L. & Palomino, D. Species-specific traits associated to prediction errors in bird habitat suitability modelling. Ecol. Modell. 185, 299\u2013308 (2005).","journal-title":"Ecol. Modell."},{"key":"40766_CR96","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"276","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1472-4642.2007.00339.x","volume":"13","author":"L Brotons","year":"2007","unstructured":"Brotons, L., Herrando, S. & Pla, M. Updating bird species distribution at large spatial scales: applications of habitat modelling to data from long-term monitoring programs. Divers. Distrib. 13, 276\u2013288 (2007).","journal-title":"Divers. Distrib."},{"key":"40766_CR97","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1104","DOI":"10.1111\/ele.12140","volume":"16","author":"Ra Slatyer","year":"2013","unstructured":"Slatyer, Ra, Hirst, M. & Sexton, J. P. Niche breadth predicts geographical range size: a general ecological pattern. Ecol. Lett. 16, 1104\u20131114 (2013).","journal-title":"Ecol. Lett."},{"key":"40766_CR98","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0108331","volume":"9","author":"M Shariatinajafabadi","year":"2014","unstructured":"Shariatinajafabadi, M. et al. Migratory herbivorous waterfowl track satellite-derived green wave index. PLoS One 9, 1\u201311 (2014).","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"key":"40766_CR99","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"322","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecolind.2015.06.005","volume":"58","author":"MS Najafabadi","year":"2015","unstructured":"Najafabadi, M. S. et al. Satellite-versus temperature-derived green wave indices for predicting the timing of spring migration of avian herbivores. Ecol. Indic. 58, 322\u2013331 (2015).","journal-title":"Ecol. Indic."},{"key":"40766_CR100","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","unstructured":"Pettorelli, N. et al. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI): Unforeseen successes in animal ecology. Climate Research.\u00a046, 15\u201327,\u00a0https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3354\/cr00936 (2011).","DOI":"10.3354\/cr00936"},{"key":"40766_CR101","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"843","DOI":"10.1007\/s10980-014-0020-4","volume":"29","author":"JM Requena-Mullor","year":"2014","unstructured":"Requena-Mullor, J. M. et al. Modeling spatial distribution of European badger in arid landscapes: an ecosystem functioning approach. Landsc. Ecol. 29, 843\u2013855 (2014).","journal-title":"Landsc. Ecol."},{"key":"40766_CR102","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"45","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecolind.2012.09.014","volume":"33","author":"H Nagendra","year":"2013","unstructured":"Nagendra, H. et al. Remote sensing for conservation monitoring: Assessing protected areas, habitat extent, habitat condition, species diversity, and threats. Ecol. Indic. 33, 45\u201359 (2013).","journal-title":"Ecol. Indic."},{"key":"40766_CR103","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"76","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1442-9993.2010.02122.x","volume":"36","author":"JV Murray","year":"2011","unstructured":"Murray, J. V., Low Choy, S., Mcalpine, C. A., Possingam, H. P. & Goldizen, A. W. Evaluating model transferability for a threatened species to adjacent areas: Implications for rock-wallaby conservation. Austral Ecol. 36, 76\u201389 (2011).","journal-title":"Austral Ecol."},{"key":"40766_CR104","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"165","DOI":"10.1111\/j.0906-7590.2004.03673.x","volume":"27","author":"W Thuiller","year":"2004","unstructured":"Thuiller, W., Brotons, L., Araujo, M. B. & Lavorel, S. Effects of restricting environmental range of data to project current and future species distributions. Ecography (Cop.). 27, 165\u2013172 (2004).","journal-title":"Ecography (Cop.)."},{"key":"40766_CR105","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"427","DOI":"10.2307\/4072271","volume":"34","author":"J Grinnell","year":"1917","unstructured":"Grinnell, J. The Niche-Relationships of the California Thrasher. Auk 34, 427\u2013433 (1917).","journal-title":"Auk"},{"key":"40766_CR106","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"115","DOI":"10.1086\/279591","volume":"51","author":"J Grinnell","year":"1917","unstructured":"Grinnell, J. Field tests of theories concerning distribution control. Am. Nat. 51, 115\u2013128 (1917).","journal-title":"Am. Nat."}],"container-title":["Scientific Reports"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-019-40766-5.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-019-40766-5","content-type":"text\/html","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-019-40766-5.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2022,12,17]],"date-time":"2022-12-17T07:34:14Z","timestamp":1671262454000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-019-40766-5"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2019,3,12]]},"references-count":106,"journal-issue":{"issue":"1","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2019,12]]}},"alternative-id":["40766"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41598-019-40766-5","relation":{},"ISSN":["2045-2322"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2045-2322","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2019,3,12]]},"assertion":[{"value":"8 June 2018","order":1,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"6 February 2019","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"12 March 2019","order":3,"name":"first_online","label":"First Online","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"The authors declare no competing interests.","order":1,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Competing Interests"}}],"article-number":"4221"}}