{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,2,21]],"date-time":"2025-02-21T13:28:56Z","timestamp":1740144536912,"version":"3.37.3"},"reference-count":35,"publisher":"EDP Sciences","issue":"6","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,11,30]],"date-time":"2022-11-30T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1669766400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":29,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["RAIRO-Oper. Res."],"accepted":{"date-parts":[[2022,10,22]]},"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2022,11]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>Morocco is among the countries that started setting up confinement in the early stage of the COVID-19 spread. Comparing the number of cumulative cases in various countries, a partial lock-down has delayed the exponential outbreak of COVID-19 in Morocco. Using a compartmental model, we attempt to estimate the mean proportion of correctly confined sub-population in Morocco as well as its effect on the continuing spread of COVID-19. A fitting to Moroccan data is established. Furthermore, we have highlighted some COVID-19 epidemic scenarios that could have happened in Morocco after the deconfinement onset while considering a different combination of preventive measures.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1051\/ro\/2022188","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,10,27]],"date-time":"2022-10-27T08:13:31Z","timestamp":1666858411000},"page":"4023-4033","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["Early-confinement strategy to tackling COVID-19 in Morocco; a mathematical modelling study"],"prefix":"10.1051","volume":"56","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5166-9386","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Khalid","family":"El Hail","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7703-5637","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Mohamed","family":"Khaladi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Aziz","family":"Ouhinou","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"250","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,11,30]]},"reference":[{"key":"R1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"931","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(20)30567-5","volume":"395","author":"Anderson","year":"2020","journal-title":"The Lancet"},{"key":"R2","first-page":"309","volume":"5","author":"Arino","year":"2020","journal-title":"Infect. Dis. Model."},{"key":"R3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"13","DOI":"10.1051\/mmnp\/2019042","volume":"15","author":"Augeraud-Vron","year":"2020","journal-title":"Math. Model. Nat. Phenom."},{"key":"R4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"253","DOI":"10.1186\/s13662-021-03410-z","volume":"2021","author":"Bachar","year":"2021","journal-title":"Adv. Differ. Equ."},{"key":"R5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2000062","DOI":"10.2807\/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.5.2000062","volume":"25","author":"Backer","year":"2020","journal-title":"Eurosurveillance"},{"key":"R6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1406","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.2020.2565","volume":"323","author":"Bai","year":"2020","journal-title":"JAMA"},{"key":"R7","unstructured":"Balkaninsight, Turkeys coronavirus crisis risks rivalling italy. https:\/\/balkaninsight.com\/2020\/03\/24\/turkeys-coronavirus-crisis-risks-rivalling-italy-experts-warn (2020)."},{"key":"R8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Becker N.G., Becker, Modeling to Inform Infectious Disease Control, 1st edition. Chapman and Hall\/CRC (2015).","DOI":"10.1201\/b18377"},{"key":"R9","first-page":"244","volume":"6","author":"Bhadauria","year":"2021","journal-title":"Infect. Dis. Model."},{"key":"R10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Daniel D., Mathematical model for the transmission of covid-19 with nonlinear forces of infection and the need for prevention measure in nigeria. J. Infect. Dis. Epidemiol. 6 (2020).","DOI":"10.23937\/2474-3658\/1510158"},{"key":"R11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"29","DOI":"10.1016\/S0025-5564(02)00108-6","volume":"180","author":"Dreessche","year":"2002","journal-title":"Math. Biosci."},{"key":"R12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"779","DOI":"10.1016\/j.dsx.2020.05.035","volume":"14","author":"Dubey","year":"2020","journal-title":"Diabetes Metab. Syndr. Clin. Res. Rev."},{"key":"R13","unstructured":"Ferguson N., Laydon D., Nedjati-Gilani G., Imai N., Ainslie K., Baguelin M., Bhatia S., Boonyasiri A., Cucunub Z.M., Cuomo-Dannenburg G., Dighe A., Dorigatti I., Fu H., Gaythorpe K., Green W., Hamlet A., Hinsley W., Okell L., van Elsland S. and Ghani A., Report 9: Impact of Non-pharmaceutical Interventions (npis) to Reduce Covid-19 Mortality and Healthcare Demand (2020)."},{"key":"R14","unstructured":"Hespress newspaper, Alert on the lack of respect for confinement in morocco, and the multiplication of foci. https:\/\/fr.hespress.com\/144611-coronavirus-alerte-sur-le-manque-de-respect-du-confinement-et-la-multiplication-des-foyers.html."},{"key":"R15","unstructured":"Hespress newspaper, Situation of covid-19 in morocco. https:\/\/covid.hespress.com\/."},{"key":"R16","first-page":"10","volume":"113","author":"Jung","year":"2021","journal-title":"Int. J. Infect. Dis.: IJID : Offic. Publ. Int. Soc. Infect. Dis."},{"key":"R17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"41","DOI":"10.1016\/j.mbs.2010.10.007","volume":"229","author":"Kassa","year":"2010","journal-title":"Math. Biosci."},{"key":"R18","unstructured":"La-croix, London opposed strict confinement. https:\/\/www.la-croix.com\/Monde\/Europe\/Coronavirus-Londres-soppose-confinement-strict-2020-03-17-1201084594."},{"issue":"2020","key":"R19","first-page":"580","volume":"7","author":"Laing","year":"2019","journal-title":"Extr. Ind. Soc."},{"key":"R20","unstructured":"Le monde newspaper, Massive tests to stem the coronavirus in south korea. https:\/\/www.lemonde.fr\/international\/article\/2020\/03\/20\/en-coree-du-sud-des-tests-massifs-pour-endiguer-le-coronavirus_6033800_3210.html."},{"key":"R21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"452","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijid.2020.03.027","volume":"96","author":"Li","year":"2020","journal-title":"Int. J. Infect. Dis."},{"key":"R22","first-page":"10","volume":"66","author":"Linka","year":"2020","journal-title":"Comput. Mech."},{"key":"R23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"110501","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jtbi.2020.110501","volume":"509","author":"Liu","year":"2020","journal-title":"J. Theor. Biol."},{"key":"R24","unstructured":"Ministry of health Morocco, First case in morocco. http:\/\/www.covidmaroc.ma\/Documents\/COM\/."},{"key":"R25","unstructured":"Ministry of the Interior Morocco, obligation of mask wear. http:\/\/covid19.interieur.gov.ma\/actualites.aspx#Communique_15."},{"key":"R26","unstructured":"Ministry of the Interior Morocco, Situation reports. http:\/\/covid19.interieur.gov.ma\/."},{"key":"R27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"108364","DOI":"10.1016\/j.mbs.2020.108364","volume":"325","author":"Ngonghala","year":"2020","journal-title":"Math. Biosci."},{"key":"R28","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"581","DOI":"10.3201\/eid1304.060828","volume":"13","author":"Phd","year":"2007","journal-title":"Emerg. Infect. Dis."},{"key":"R29","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"110165","DOI":"10.1016\/j.chaos.2020.110165","volume":"140","author":"Ponce de Len","year":"2020","journal-title":"Chaos Solit. Fractals"},{"key":"R30","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Rosero-Bixby L. and Miller T., The Mathematics of the Reproduction Number r for Covid-19: A Primer for Demographers (2020).","DOI":"10.31235\/osf.io\/u6ey9"},{"key":"R31","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1358","DOI":"10.1007\/s40435-021-00781-9","volume":"9","author":"Ssematimba","year":"2021","journal-title":"Int. J. Dyn. Control."},{"issue":"2020","key":"R32","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"411","DOI":"10.15585\/mmwr.mm6914e1","volume":"69","author":"Wei","year":"2020","journal-title":"MMWR Morb. Mortal. Wkly. Rep."},{"key":"R33","unstructured":"WHO, Coronavirus disease (covid-19) dashboard. https:\/\/covid19.who.int\/region\/amro\/country\/us."},{"key":"R34","unstructured":"WHO, Coronavirus disease (covid-2019) situation reports. https:\/\/www.who.int\/emergencies\/diseases\/novel-coronavirus-2019\/situation-reportshttps:\/\/www.who.int\/emergencies\/diseases\/novel-coronavirus-2019\/situation-reports."},{"key":"R35","unstructured":"WHO, First case in china. https:\/\/www.who.int\/csr\/don\/12-january-2020-novel-coronavirus-china\/en\/."}],"container-title":["RAIRO - Operations Research"],"original-title":[],"link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.rairo-ro.org\/10.1051\/ro\/2022188\/pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2022,11,30]],"date-time":"2022-11-30T09:17:48Z","timestamp":1669799868000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.rairo-ro.org\/10.1051\/ro\/2022188"}},"subtitle":[],"editor":[{"given":"A. Ridha","family":"Mahjoub","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"editor","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"A.","family":"Laghrib","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"editor","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"A.","family":"Metrane","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"editor","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2022,11]]},"references-count":35,"journal-issue":{"issue":"6"},"alternative-id":["ro210594"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1051\/ro\/2022188","relation":{},"ISSN":["0399-0559","2804-7303"],"issn-type":[{"type":"print","value":"0399-0559"},{"type":"electronic","value":"2804-7303"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2022,11]]}}}