{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,15]],"date-time":"2025-12-15T19:42:18Z","timestamp":1765827738298},"reference-count":0,"publisher":"Georg Thieme Verlag KG","issue":"01","content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Appl Clin Inform"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2019,1]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>\n            Objective\u2003This project examined and produced a general practice (GP) based decision support tool (DST), namely POLAR Diversion, to predict a patient's risk of emergency department (ED) presentation. The tool was built using both GP\/family practice and ED data, but is designed to operate on GP data alone.<\/jats:p><jats:p>\n            Methods\u2003GP data from 50 practices during a defined time frame were linked with three local EDs. Linked data and data mapping were used to develop a machine learning DST to determine a range of variables that, in combination, led to predictive patient ED presentation risk scores. Thirteen percent of the GP data was kept as a control group and used to validate the tool.<\/jats:p><jats:p>\n            Results\u2003The algorithm performed best in predicting the risk of attending ED within the 30-day time category, and also in the no ED attendance tests, suggesting few false positives. At 0 to 30 days the positive predictive value (PPV) was 74%, with a sensitivity\/recall of 68%. Non-ED attendance had a PPV of 82% and sensitivity\/recall of 96%.<\/jats:p><jats:p>\n            Conclusion\u2003Findings indicate that the POLAR Diversion algorithm performed better than previously developed tools, particularly in the 0 to 30 day time category. Its utility increases because of it being based on the data within the GP system alone, with the ability to create real-time \u201cin consultation\u201d warnings. The tool will be deployed across GPs in Australia, allowing us to assess the clinical utility, and data quality needs in further iterations.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1055\/s-0039-1678608","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2019,2,27]],"date-time":"2019-02-27T19:02:25Z","timestamp":1551294145000},"page":"151-157","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":11,"title":["POLAR Diversion: Using General Practice Data to Calculate Risk of Emergency Department Presentation at the Time of Consultation"],"prefix":"10.1055","volume":"10","author":[{"given":"Christopher","family":"Pearce","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Outcome Health, East Burwood, Victoria, Australia"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Adam","family":"McLeod","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Outcome Health, East Burwood, Victoria, Australia"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Natalie","family":"Rinehart","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Outcome Health, East Burwood, Victoria, Australia"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Jon","family":"Patrick","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Health Language Analytics, Eveleigh, New South Wales, Australia"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Anna","family":"Fragkoudi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Outcome Health, East Burwood, Victoria, Australia"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Jason","family":"Ferrigi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Outcome Health, East Burwood, Victoria, Australia"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Elizabeth","family":"Deveny","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"South East Melbourne Primary Health Network, Melbourne, Australia"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Robin","family":"Whyte","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Eastern Melbourne Primary Health Network, Box Hill, Victoria, Australia"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Marianne","family":"Shearer","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Gippsland Primary Health Network, Moe, Victoria, Australia"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"194","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2019,2,27]]},"container-title":["Applied Clinical Informatics"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"http:\/\/www.thieme-connect.de\/products\/ejournals\/pdf\/10.1055\/s-0039-1678608.pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2019,5,6]],"date-time":"2019-05-06T17:13:44Z","timestamp":1557162824000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"http:\/\/www.thieme-connect.de\/DOI\/DOI?10.1055\/s-0039-1678608"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2019,1]]},"references-count":0,"journal-issue":{"issue":"01","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2019,1,2]]},"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2019,1]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1055\/s-0039-1678608","relation":{},"ISSN":["1869-0327"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1869-0327","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2019,1]]}}}