{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,27]],"date-time":"2026-04-27T23:35:17Z","timestamp":1777332917212,"version":"3.51.4"},"reference-count":44,"publisher":"Georg Thieme Verlag KG","issue":"02","content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Homeopathy"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,5]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>A prognostic factor (PF) refers to any feature of a disease or a characteristic of a patient that can be used to predict the likely outcome or course of a disease in an individual. Prognostic factor research (PFR), which is relatively new in homeopathy, focuses on investigating PFs and helps in therapeutic decision-making. The main challenge is the large number of eligible symptoms, but these can be reduced by condition-confined assessment, in which PFR is restricted to sub-populations of patients suffering from the same disease or condition. Condition-confined PFR (CC-PFR) identifies useful medicines for a given disease and compares with great precision different medicines regarding their relationship with common symptoms.<\/jats:p>\n                  <jats:p>To overview PFR and the findings from CC-PFR studies in homeopathy to date.<\/jats:p>\n                  <jats:p>A review of PFR, followed by a summary of six CC-PFR studies in homeopathy for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was performed, outlining the methods, the challenges, the interpretation of outcomes and the lessons learned from each of the six studies in considering the further development of this model.<\/jats:p>\n                  <jats:p>The six CC-PFR studies during COVID-19 identified PFs for the 10 most frequently used medicines: Bry, Ars, Puls, Gels, Bell, Hep, Nux-v, Phos, Puls and Rhus-t. These PFs usually contain common symptoms, which in combination become \u2018specific\u2019 enough to select a medicine. These PFs or symptoms also helped to differentiate between these 10 medicines. This model was reproducible and the outcomes were verifiable in the subsequent waves of COVID-19. The outcomes of CC-PFR studies were mostly generalisable and resulted in the preparation of a mini-repertory and repertorisation app. However, these studies revealed key issues. The main problems were the reliability of observations, identification of biases and assessing causality. The quality of PFR data depends on the scientific skills of practitioners, who are typically not trained researchers. Thus, they require additional training in data collection, methods, management of bias and causal analysis.<\/jats:p>\n                  <jats:p>CC-PFR improves the reliable use of common symptoms and thus reduces the inappropriate use of peculiar symptoms based on confirmation bias. CC-PFR studies may be helpful in diseases where rare and peculiar symptoms are difficult to find, for example in one-sided ailments, and in epidemic diseases. PFR, however, requires reliable observations by the participating practitioners. Hence, training and encouragement of clinicians is needed to develop the existing data and integrate research into everyday clinical practice.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1055\/a-2562-8734","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,28]],"date-time":"2025-07-28T22:37:05Z","timestamp":1753742225000},"page":"060-070","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":2,"title":["Prognostic Factor Research in Homeopathy: Overview of the Method, with Insights from Condition-Confined Studies"],"prefix":"10.1055","volume":"115","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-7843-6371","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Anjali","family":"Miglani","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Directorate of AYUSH, Health and Family Welfare Department, Government of National Capital Territory of Delhi, New Delhi, India"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Raj Kumar","family":"Manchanda","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Nehru Homoeopathic Medical College and Hospital, Delhi, India"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Lex","family":"Rutten","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Independent Practitioner, Breda, The Netherlands"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"194","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,28]]},"reference":[{"key":"ref1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e013150","DOI":"10.1136\/bmjgh-2023-013150","article-title":"Traditional, complementary and integrative healthcare: global stakeholder perspective on WHO's current and future strategy","volume":"8","author":"T von Schoen-Angerer","year":"2023","journal-title":"BMJ Glob Health"},{"key":"ref2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"262","DOI":"10.4103\/ijrh.ijrh_48_17","article-title":"Confirmation and confirmation bias: the role of prognostic factor research","volume":"11","author":"L Rutten","year":"2017","journal-title":"Indian J Res Homoeopathy"},{"key":"ref3","first-page":"150","volume-title":"Organon of Medicine","author":"S Hahnemann","year":"2004","edition":"6th ed."},{"key":"ref4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"726","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(05)67177-2","article-title":"Are the clinical effects of homoeopathy placebo effects? Comparative study of placebo-controlled trials of homoeopathy and allopathy","volume":"366","author":"A Shang","year":"2005","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"ref6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"102961","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ctim.2023.102961","article-title":"Recommendations in the design and conduction of randomised controlled trials in human and veterinary homeopathic medicine","volume":"76","author":"K Gaertner","year":"2023","journal-title":"Complement Ther Med"},{"key":"ref7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1080","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.330.7499.1080","article-title":"Why clinicians are natural Bayesians","volume":"330","author":"C J Gill","year":"2005","journal-title":"BMJ"},{"key":"ref8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1005","DOI":"10.7326\/0003-4819-130-12-199906150-00019","article-title":"Toward evidence-based medical statistics. 2: The Bayes factor","volume":"130","author":"S N Goodman","year":"1999","journal-title":"Ann Intern Med"},{"key":"ref9","first-page":"370","article-title":"An essay towards solving a problem in the Doctrine of Chances","volume":"53","author":"T Bayes","year":"1763","journal-title":"Philos Trans R Soc Lond"},{"key":"ref10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"182","DOI":"10.1016\/j.homp.2003.08.013","article-title":"Assessing likelihood ratio of clinical symptoms: handling vagueness","volume":"92","author":"A LB Rutten","year":"2003","journal-title":"Homeopathy"},{"key":"ref11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"78","DOI":"10.1016\/j.homp.2004.03.001","article-title":"\u2018Cure\u2019 as the gold standard for likelihood ratio assessment: theoretical considerations","volume":"93","author":"A LB Rutten","year":"2004","journal-title":"Homeopathy"},{"key":"ref12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"808","DOI":"10.1097\/JTO.0b013e318292bdcd","article-title":"Biostatistics primer: what a clinician ought to know\u2013prognostic and predictive factors","volume":"8","author":"L Simms","year":"2013","journal-title":"J Thorac Oncol"},{"key":"ref13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"371","DOI":"10.1016\/S0895-4356(98)00177-2","article-title":"Prognostic factor research in oncology","volume":"52","author":"P Hermanek","year":"1999","journal-title":"J Clin Epidemiol"},{"key":"ref14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/med\/9780198796619.003.0007","volume-title":"Prognostic factor research","author":"R D Riley","year":"2019"},{"key":"ref15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e071705","DOI":"10.1136\/bmjopen-2023-071705","article-title":"Prognostic factors associated with failure of total elbow replacement: a protocol for a systematic review","volume":"13","author":"Z Hamoodi","year":"2023","journal-title":"BMJ Open"},{"key":"ref16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e1001380","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.1001380","article-title":"Prognosis Research Strategy (PROGRESS) 2: Prognostic factor research","volume":"10","author":"R D Riley","year":"2013","journal-title":"PLoS Med"},{"key":"ref17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"124","DOI":"10.1016\/j.crad.2023.10.027","article-title":"The application of quantitative perfusion analysis of golden-angle radial sparse parallel MRI and R2\u2217 value for predicting pathological prognostic factors in rectal cancer","volume":"79","author":"M Zhou","year":"2024","journal-title":"Clin Radiol"},{"key":"ref18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e483","DOI":"10.1016\/j.wneu.2023.12.123","article-title":"Competing risk model to determine the prognostic factors for patients with gliosarcoma","volume":"183","author":"M Chen","year":"2024","journal-title":"World Neurosurg"},{"key":"ref19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1216","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1743-6109.2009.01567.x","article-title":"Orgasmic dysfunction after open radical prostatectomy: clinical correlates and prognostic factors","volume":"7","author":"Y Dubbelman","year":"2010","journal-title":"J Sex Med"},{"key":"ref20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"107515","DOI":"10.1016\/j.rmed.2023.107515","article-title":"Prognostic factors associated with mortality in acute exacerbations of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis","volume":"222","author":"T Pitre","year":"2024","journal-title":"Respir Med"},{"key":"ref21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"194","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ajem.2023.12.037","article-title":"Prognostic factors and clinical nomogram for in-hospital mortality in traumatic brain injury","volume":"77","author":"T Tunthanathip","year":"2024","journal-title":"Am J Emerg Med"},{"key":"ref22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"155","DOI":"10.1016\/j.homp.2017.09.003","article-title":"Generalisability of prognostic factor research: further analysis of data from the IIPCOS2 study","volume":"106","author":"A Miglani","year":"2017","journal-title":"Homeopathy"},{"key":"ref24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"203","DOI":"10.1016\/j.homp.2013.12.002","article-title":"Observational study of Arctium lappa in the treatment of acne vulgaris","volume":"103","author":"A Miglani","year":"2014","journal-title":"Homeopathy"},{"key":"ref25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"191","DOI":"10.1111\/fct.12140","article-title":"Prospective, non-randomised, open-label study of Zingiber officinale in the treatment of acne vulgaris","volume":"19","author":"A Miglani","year":"2014","journal-title":"Focus Altern Complement Ther"},{"key":"ref26","first-page":"218","article-title":"Azadirachta indica in treatment of acne vulgaris \u2013 an open-label observational study","volume":"8","author":"A Miglani","year":"2014","journal-title":"Indian J Res Homoeopathy"},{"key":"ref27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"416","DOI":"10.1046\/j.1365-4362.1997.00099.x","article-title":"A comparison of current acne grading systems and proposal of a novel system","volume":"36","author":"A Doshi","year":"1997","journal-title":"Int J Dermatol"},{"key":"ref28","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"481","DOI":"10.1007\/BF00540020","article-title":"Evaluating health-related quality of life in patients with facial acne: development of a self-administered questionnaire for clinical trials","volume":"5","author":"C J Girman","year":"1996","journal-title":"Qual Life Res"},{"key":"ref29","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"380","DOI":"10.1046\/j.1365-2230.2001.00839.x","article-title":"Health-related quality of life among patients with facial acne \u2013 assessment of a new acne-specific questionnaire","volume":"26","author":"A R Martin","year":"2001","journal-title":"Clin Exp Dermatol"},{"key":"ref30","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"809","DOI":"10.1023\/A:1020880005846","article-title":"Responsiveness of the Acne-Specific Quality of Life Questionnaire (Acne-QoL) to treatment for acne vulgaris in placebo-controlled clinical trials","volume":"11","author":"S E Fehnel","year":"2002","journal-title":"Qual Life Res"},{"key":"ref31","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"152","DOI":"10.4103\/ijrh.ijrh_32_20","article-title":"Homoeopathy in pandemic Spanish flu 1918","volume":"14","author":"V Shinde","year":"2020","journal-title":"Indian J Res Homoeopathy"},{"key":"ref32","first-page":"160","article-title":"Homeopathic remedies in COVID-19: prognostic factor research","volume":"110","author":"R K Manchanda","year":"2021","journal-title":"Homeopathy"},{"key":"ref33","first-page":"55","article-title":"Effect of lockdown during COVID-19: an Indian perspective","volume":"5","author":"A Miglani","year":"2020","journal-title":"Int J Sci Healthcare Res"},{"key":"ref34","first-page":"155","article-title":"Mental health strategies to combat the psychological impact of COVID-19 beyond paranoia and panic","volume":"49","author":"C S Ho","year":"2020","journal-title":"Ann Acad Med Singap"},{"key":"ref35","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"139","DOI":"10.1186\/1472-6963-7-139","article-title":"Outcome related to impact on daily living: preliminary validation of the ORIDL instrument","volume":"7","author":"D Reilly","year":"2007","journal-title":"BMC Health Serv Res"},{"key":"ref36","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"78","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ctim.2015.12.019","article-title":"Homeopathic clinical case reports: development of a supplement (HOM-CASE) to the CARE clinical case reporting guideline","volume":"25","author":"R A van Haselen","year":"2016","journal-title":"Complement Ther Med"},{"key":"ref37","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"57","DOI":"10.1055\/s-0041-1731314","article-title":"Impact of bias in data collection of COVID-19 cases","volume":"111","author":"R K Manchanda","year":"2022","journal-title":"Homeopathy"},{"key":"ref38","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"12","DOI":"10.1055\/s-0042-1748881","article-title":"Homeopathic medicines in second wave of COVID-19: prognostic factor research","volume":"112","author":"R K Manchanda","year":"2023","journal-title":"Homeopathy"},{"key":"ref39","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"223","DOI":"10.1055\/s-0043-1776758","article-title":"Homeopathic medicines in third (Omicron) wave of COVID-19: prognostic factor research","volume":"113","author":"R K Manchanda","year":"2024","journal-title":"Homeopathy"},{"key":"ref40","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"157","DOI":"10.1055\/s-0041-1732307","article-title":"Generalizability of homeopathic prognostic factor research outcome in COVID-19 treatment: comparison of data","volume":"111","author":"L Rutten","year":"2022","journal-title":"Homeopathy"},{"key":"ref41","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"22","DOI":"10.1055\/s-0042-1746196","article-title":"Test of a homeopathic algorithm for COVID-19: the importance of a broad perspective","volume":"112","author":"A Miglani","year":"2023","journal-title":"Homeopathy"},{"key":"ref42","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"11","DOI":"10.1055\/s-0043-1778050","article-title":"Homeopathy for acute viral infections: a Bayesian repertory for reliable use of common symptoms","volume":"37","author":"L Rutten","year":"2024","journal-title":"Homoeopath Links"},{"key":"ref43","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"191","DOI":"10.1055\/s-0040-1701251","article-title":"Evaluation of the Modified Naranjo Criteria for assessing causal attribution of clinical outcome to homeopathic intervention as presented in case reports","volume":"109","author":"C D Lamba","year":"2020","journal-title":"Homeopathy"},{"key":"ref44","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"175","DOI":"10.1037\/1089-2680.2.2.175","article-title":"Confirmation bias: a ubiquitous phenomenon in many guises","volume":"2","author":"R S Nickerson","year":"1998","journal-title":"Rev Gen Psychol"},{"key":"ref45","first-page":"195","article-title":"Send in your cases, or the lost art of the concise case report","volume":"91","author":"P Fisher","year":"2002","journal-title":"Homeopathy"},{"key":"ref46","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"146","DOI":"10.51910\/ijhdr.v23icf.1304","article-title":"Homoeopathic treatment for chronic cough \u2013 a multicentric, prospective, observational cohort study","volume":"23","author":"H Kaur","year":"2024","journal-title":"Int J High Dilution Res"}],"container-title":["Homeopathy"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"http:\/\/www.thieme-connect.de\/products\/ejournals\/pdf\/10.1055\/a-2562-8734.pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,27]],"date-time":"2026-04-27T22:39:27Z","timestamp":1777329567000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"http:\/\/www.thieme-connect.de\/DOI\/DOI?10.1055\/a-2562-8734"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,28]]},"references-count":44,"journal-issue":{"issue":"02","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,27]]},"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,5]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1055\/a-2562-8734","archive":["Portico","CLOCKSS"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["1475-4916","1476-4245"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1475-4916","type":"print"},{"value":"1476-4245","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,28]]}}}