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The model takes the form of a system of nonlinear differential equations that incorporate biological complexity associated with schistosome's life cycle, including a prepatent period in snails (i.e., the time between initial infection and onset of infectiousness). Nonlinear analysis is used to explore the parametric conditions that produce different temporal patterns (stationary, endemic, periodic, and chaotic). For the time-invariant model, we identify a transcritical and a Hopf bifurcation in the space of the human and snail infection parameters. The first corresponds to the occurrence of an endemic equilibrium, while the latter marks the transition to interannual periodic oscillations. We then investigate a more realistic time-varying model in which fertility of the intermediate host population is assumed to seasonally vary. We show that seasonality can give rise to a cascade of period-doubling bifurcations leading to chaos for larger, though realistic, values of the amplitude of the seasonal variation of fertility.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1063\/1.4908202","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2015,2,17]],"date-time":"2015-02-17T18:00:16Z","timestamp":1424196016000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1063\/aip-crossmark-policy-page","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":18,"title":["The temporal patterns of disease severity and prevalence in schistosomiasis"],"prefix":"10.1063","volume":"25","author":[{"given":"Manuela","family":"Ciddio","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Informazione e Bioingegneria, Politecnico di Milano 1 Dipartimento di Elettronica, , Via Ponzio 34\/5, 20133 Milano, Italy"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Lorenzo","family":"Mari","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Informazione e Bioingegneria, Politecnico di Milano 1 Dipartimento di Elettronica, , Via Ponzio 34\/5, 20133 Milano, Italy"},{"name":"\u00c9cole Polytechnique F\u00e9d\u00e9rale de Lausanne 2 Laboratory of Ecohydrology, ECHO\/IIE\/ENAC, , Station 2, 1015 Lausanne, Switzerland"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8063-9178","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Marino","family":"Gatto","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Informazione e Bioingegneria, Politecnico di Milano 1 Dipartimento di Elettronica, , Via Ponzio 34\/5, 20133 Milano, Italy"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Andrea","family":"Rinaldo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"\u00c9cole Polytechnique F\u00e9d\u00e9rale de Lausanne 2 Laboratory of Ecohydrology, ECHO\/IIE\/ENAC, , Station 2, 1015 Lausanne, Switzerland"},{"name":"Universit\u00e0 di Padova 3 Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile, Edile ed Ambientale, , Via Loredan 20, 35131 Padova, Italy"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Renato","family":"Casagrandi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Informazione e Bioingegneria, Politecnico di Milano 1 Dipartimento di Elettronica, , Via Ponzio 34\/5, 20133 Milano, Italy"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"317","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2015,2,17]]},"reference":[{"key":"2023063015510520400_c1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"41","DOI":"10.1016\/S0001-706X(00)00122-4","article-title":"The global status of schistosomiasis and its control","volume":"77","year":"2000","journal-title":"Acta Trop."},{"key":"2023063015510520400_c2","unstructured":"WHO Expert Committee, \u201cPrevention and control of schistosomiasis and soil-transmitted helminthiasis,\u201d Technical Report (WHO, 2002)."},{"key":"2023063015510520400_c3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2253","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(13)61949-2","article-title":"Human schistosomiasis","volume":"383","year":"2014","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"2023063015510520400_c4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"334","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1708-8305.2007.00137.x","article-title":"Urinary tract Schistosoma haematobium infection: A case report","volume":"14","year":"2007","journal-title":"J. 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