{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,2]],"date-time":"2026-10-02T13:56:11Z","timestamp":1790949371993,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":57,"publisher":"AIP Publishing","issue":"8","funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001809","name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["11871065"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["11871065"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001809","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001809","name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["12171418"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["12171418"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001809","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100004608","name":"Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["BK20231328"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["BK20231328"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100004608","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["pubs.aip.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2024,8,1]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>The emergence of dengue viruses in new, susceptible human populations worldwide is increasingly influenced by a combination of local and global human movements and favorable environmental conditions. While various mathematical models have explored the impact of environmental factors on dengue outbreaks, the significant role of human mobility both internationally and domestically in transmitting the disease has been less frequently addressed. In this context, we introduce a modeling framework that integrates the effects of international travel-induced imported cases, climatic conditions, and local human movements to assess the spatiotemporal dynamics of dengue transmission. Utilizing the generation matrix method, we calculate the basic reproduction number and its sensitivity to various model parameters. Through numerical simulations using data on climate, human mobility, and reported dengue cases in mainland China, our model demonstrates a good agreement with observed data upon validation. Our findings reveal that while climatic conditions are a key driver for the rapid dengue transmission, human mobility plays a crucial role in its local spread. Importantly, the model highlights the significant impact of imported cases from overseas on the initiation of dengue outbreaks and their contribution to increasing the disease incidence rate by 34.6%. Furthermore, the analysis identifies that dengue cases originating from regions, such as Cambodia and Myanmar internationally, and Guangzhou and Xishuangbanna domestically, have the potential to significantly increase the disease burden in mainland China. These insights emphasize the critical need to include data on imported cases and domestic travel patterns in disease outbreak models to improve the precision of predictions, thereby enhancing dengue prevention, surveillance, and response strategies.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1063\/5.0204336","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,8,30]],"date-time":"2024-08-30T14:46:14Z","timestamp":1725029174000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1063\/aip-crossmark-policy-page","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":7,"title":["The timeline of overseas imported cases acts as a strong indicator of dengue outbreak in mainland China"],"prefix":"10.1063","volume":"34","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0004-3201-7197","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Tarteel","family":"Abdalgader","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Mathematical Science, Yangzhou University 1 , Yangzhou 225002, China"},{"name":"Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Education, University of Khartoum 2 , P.O. Box 321, Khartoum, Sudan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0001-0580-1152","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Zhoumin","family":"Zheng","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Mathematical Science, Yangzhou University 1 , Yangzhou 225002, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4327-5904","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Malay","family":"Banerjee","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur 3 , Kanpur 208016, India"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2409-7348","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Lai","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Mathematical Science, Yangzhou University 1 , Yangzhou 225002, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"317","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,8,30]]},"reference":[{"key":"2024083014460807900_c1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"110123","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecolmodel.2022.110123","article-title":"Spatially weak synchronization of spreading pattern between Aedes Albopictus and dengue fever","volume":"473","year":"2022","journal-title":"Ecol. Model."},{"key":"2024083014460807900_c2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"110987","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jtbi.2021.110987","article-title":"Trade-off between climatic and human population impacts on Aedes aegypti life history shapes its geographic distribution","volume":"535","year":"2022","journal-title":"J. Theor. Biol."},{"issue":"11","key":"2024083014460807900_c3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e49085","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0049085","article-title":"Dynamic epidemiological models for dengue transmission: A systematic review of structural approaches","volume":"7","year":"2012","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"key":"2024083014460807900_c4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"129","DOI":"10.1016\/j.physa.2015.12.015","article-title":"Modelling dengue epidemic spreading with human mobility","volume":"447","year":"2016","journal-title":"Phys. A: Stat. Mech. Appl."},{"key":"2024083014460807900_c5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"504","DOI":"10.1038\/nature12060","article-title":"The global distribution and burden of dengue","volume":"496","year":"2013","journal-title":"Nature"},{"issue":"9","key":"2024083014460807900_c6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"3231","DOI":"10.1002\/mma.4812","article-title":"Optimal control and basic reproduction numbers for a compartmental spatial multipatch dengue model","volume":"41","year":"2018","journal-title":"Math. Methods Appl. Sci."},{"key":"2024083014460807900_c8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"43","DOI":"10.1603\/ME11242","article-title":"Large diurnal temperature fluctuations negatively influence Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) life-history traits","volume":"50","year":"2013","journal-title":"J. Med. Entomol."},{"issue":"4","key":"2024083014460807900_c9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"689","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.12-0488","article-title":"Reduction of Aedes aegypti vector competence for dengue virus under large temperature fluctuations","volume":"88","year":"2013","journal-title":"Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg."},{"issue":"3","key":"2024083014460807900_c10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"524","DOI":"10.1093\/jmedent\/30.3.524","article-title":"Vector competence of Aedes albopictus and Ae. Aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) to dengue 1 virus on Taiwan: Development of the virus in orally and parenterally infected mosquitoes","volume":"30","year":"1993","journal-title":"J. Med. Entomol."},{"issue":"2","key":"2024083014460807900_c11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e0004417","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0004417","article-title":"Climate and the timing of imported cases as determinants of the dengue outbreak in Guangzhou, 2014 evidence from a mathematical model","volume":"10","year":"2016","journal-title":"PLoS Negl. Trop. Dis."},{"issue":"6","key":"2024083014460807900_c12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e0005701","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0005701","article-title":"The interplay of climate, intervention and imported cases as determinants of the 2014 dengue outbreak in Guangzhou","volume":"11","year":"2017","journal-title":"PLoS Negl. Trop. Dis."},{"issue":"24","key":"2024083014460807900_c13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"6243","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1718945115","article-title":"Limiting global-mean temperature increase to 1.5-2\u2009\u00b0C could reduce the incidence and spatial spread of dengue fever in Latin America","volume":"115","year":"2018","journal-title":"Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A."},{"key":"2024083014460807900_c14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"32267","DOI":"10.3402\/gha.v9.32267","article-title":"The correlation between dengue incidence and diurnal ranges of temperature of Colombo district, Sri Lanka 2005-2014","volume":"9","year":"2016","journal-title":"Glob. Health Action"},{"key":"2024083014460807900_c15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"57","DOI":"10.1016\/j.sste.2018.03.001","article-title":"Dynamics of dengue disease with human and vector mobility","volume":"25","year":"2018","journal-title":"Spat. Spatio-Temporal Epidemiol."},{"key":"2024083014460807900_c16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1016\/j.accre.2019.03.006","article-title":"Potential impacts of climate change on dengue fever distribution using RCP scenarios in China","volume":"10","year":"2019","journal-title":"Adv. Clim. Change Res."},{"issue":"4","key":"2024083014460807900_c17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"391","DOI":"10.1038\/s41567-017-0022-7","article-title":"Critical regimes driven by recurrent mobility patterns of reaction\u2013diffusion processes in networks","volume":"14","year":"2018","journal-title":"Nat. Phys."},{"issue":"10","key":"2024083014460807900_c18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e0005973","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0005973","article-title":"Developing a dengue forecast model using machine learning: A case study in China","volume":"11","year":"2017","journal-title":"PLoS Negl. Trop. Dis."},{"issue":"1","key":"2024083014460807900_c19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"78","DOI":"10.1186\/s13071-022-05187-w","article-title":"The impact of COVID-19 continuous containment and mitigation strategy on the epidemic of vector-borne diseases in China","volume":"15","year":"2022","journal-title":"Parasites Vectors"},{"issue":"6202","key":"2024083014460807900_c20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1292","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1254166","article-title":"Emerging, evolving, and established infectious diseases and interventions","volume":"345","year":"2014","journal-title":"Science"},{"issue":"11","key":"2024083014460807900_c21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e1908","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0001908","article-title":"Forecast of dengue incidence using temperature and rainfall","volume":"6","year":"2012","journal-title":"PLoS Negl. Trop. Dis."},{"issue":"4","key":"2024083014460807900_c23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"679","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijforecast.2006.03.001","article-title":"Another look at measures of forecast accuracy","volume":"22","year":"2006","journal-title":"Int. J. Forecast."},{"key":"2024083014460807900_c24","unstructured":"Isea, R. and Lonngren, K. E., \u201cA preliminary mathematical model for the dynamic transmission of dengue, chikungunya and Zika,\u201d arXiv:1606.08233 (2016)."},{"issue":"7181","key":"2024083014460807900_c25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"990","DOI":"10.1038\/nature06536","article-title":"Global trends in emerging infectious diseases","volume":"451","year":"2008","journal-title":"Nature"},{"issue":"1","key":"2024083014460807900_c26","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"923","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-020-79438-0","article-title":"Incorporating human mobility data improves forecasts of dengue fever in Thailand","volume":"11","year":"2021","journal-title":"Sci. Rep."},{"issue":"3","key":"2024083014460807900_c27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e0173673","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0173673","article-title":"Assessment of optimal strategies in a two-patch dengue transmission model with seasonality","volume":"12","year":"2017","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"issue":"9","key":"2024083014460807900_c28","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"3624","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1806094116","article-title":"Climate-driven variation in mosquito density predicts the spatiotemporal dynamics of dengue","volume":"116","year":"2019","journal-title":"Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A."},{"key":"2024083014460807900_c29","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"203","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2019.01.301","article-title":"Modeling the present and future distribution of arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus under climate change scenarios in Mainland China","volume":"664","year":"2019","journal-title":"Sci. Total Environ."},{"issue":"1","key":"2024083014460807900_c30","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"12","DOI":"10.1186\/s40249-022-00937-5","article-title":"Epidemiological characteristics and temporal-spatial analysis of overseas imported dengue fever cases in outbreak provinces of China, 2005\u20132019","volume":"11","year":"2022","journal-title":"Infect. Dis. Poverty"},{"issue":"1","key":"2024083014460807900_c31","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"16911","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-019-53127-z","article-title":"Assessing the interplay between human mobility and mosquito borne diseases in urban environments","volume":"9","year":"2019","journal-title":"Sci. Rep."},{"issue":"3","key":"2024083014460807900_c32","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"276","DOI":"10.11613\/BM.2012.031","article-title":"Interrater reliability: The kappa statistic","volume":"22","year":"2012","journal-title":"Biochem. Med."},{"issue":"11","key":"2024083014460807900_c33","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1929","DOI":"10.1007\/s00484-021-02149-2","article-title":"The impacts of precipitation patterns on dengue epidemics in Guangzhou city","volume":"65","year":"2021","journal-title":"Int. J. Biometeorol."},{"issue":"2","key":"2024083014460807900_c34","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"150","DOI":"10.1093\/imammb\/dqt002","article-title":"A model for the spatial transmission of dengue with daily movement between villages and a city","volume":"31","year":"2014","journal-title":"Math. Med. Biol."},{"issue":"2","key":"2024083014460807900_c35","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"252","DOI":"10.1016\/j.mbs.2013.10.007","article-title":"Comparing vector\u2013host and SIR models for dengue transmission","volume":"246","year":"2013","journal-title":"Math. Biosci."},{"issue":"1","key":"2024083014460807900_c36","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"72","DOI":"10.1111\/jtm.12177","article-title":"Importation index of dengue to determine the most probable origin of importation","volume":"22","year":"2015","journal-title":"J. Travel Med."},{"issue":"3","key":"2024083014460807900_c37","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"186","DOI":"10.1111\/jtm.12192","article-title":"Estimating air travel\u2013associated importations of dengue virus into Italy","volume":"22","year":"2015","journal-title":"J. Travel Med."},{"issue":"4","key":"2024083014460807900_c38","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e0007298","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0007298","article-title":"A combination of incidence data and mobility proxies from social media predicts the intra-urban spread of dengue in Yogyakarta, Indonesia","volume":"13","year":"2019","journal-title":"PLoS Negl. Trop. Dis."},{"key":"2024083014460807900_c39","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"75","DOI":"10.5923\/j.ajms.20120204.03","article-title":"Modelling the effect of screening and treatment on transmission of HIV\/AIDS infection in population","volume":"2","year":"2012","journal-title":"Am. J. Math. Stat."},{"key":"2024083014460807900_c40","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"178","DOI":"10.1016\/j.meegid.2015.03.005","article-title":"Dengue is still an imported disease in China: A case study in Guangzhou","volume":"32","year":"2015","journal-title":"Infect. Genet. Evol."},{"issue":"5","key":"2024083014460807900_c42","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"321","DOI":"10.3967\/bes2015.046","article-title":"The impacts of mosquito density and meteorological factors on dengue fever epidemics in Guangzhou, China, 2006-2014: A time-series analysis","volume":"28","year":"2015","journal-title":"Biomed. Environ. Sci."},{"issue":"1","key":"2024083014460807900_c43","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"013312","DOI":"10.1103\/PhysRevResearch.2.013312","article-title":"Vector-borne epidemics driven by human mobility","volume":"2","year":"2020","journal-title":"Phys. Rev. Res."},{"key":"2024083014460807900_c44","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"191","DOI":"10.1016\/j.meegid.2018.11.009","article-title":"Aedes aegypti vector competence studies: A review","volume":"67","year":"2019","journal-title":"Infect. Genet. Evol."},{"issue":"10","key":"2024083014460807900_c45","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"287","DOI":"10.3390\/tropicalmed7100287","article-title":"Dengue incidence and Aedes vector collections in relation to COVID-19 population mobility restrictions","volume":"7","year":"2022","journal-title":"Trop. Med. Infect. Dis."},{"issue":"3","key":"2024083014460807900_c46","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"604","DOI":"10.1080\/13658816.2019.1684497","article-title":"A comprehensive framework for studying diffusion patterns of imported dengue with individual-based movement data","volume":"34","year":"2020","journal-title":"Int. J. Geogr. Inf. Sci."},{"issue":"4","key":"2024083014460807900_c47","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"593","DOI":"10.3201\/eid1004.030216","article-title":"Myanmar dengue outbreak associated with displacement of serotypes 2, 3, and 4 by dengue 1","volume":"10","year":"2004","journal-title":"Emerg. Infect. Dis."},{"key":"2024083014460807900_c48","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"559","DOI":"10.1016\/j.apm.2021.04.001","article-title":"Effect of daily periodic human movement on dengue dynamics: The case of the 2010 outbreak in Hermosillo, Mexico","volume":"97","year":"2021","journal-title":"Appl. Math. Model."},{"key":"2024083014460807900_c49","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"29","DOI":"10.1016\/S0025-5564(02)00108-6","article-title":"Reproduction numbers and sub-threshold endemic equilibria for compartmental models of disease transmission","volume":"180","year":"2002","journal-title":"Math. Biosci."},{"key":"2024083014460807900_c50","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"224","DOI":"10.1179\/2047773213Y.0000000100","article-title":"The role of environmental variables on Aedes albopictus biology and chikungunya epidemiology","volume":"107","year":"2013","journal-title":"Pathog. Glob. Health"},{"issue":"38","key":"2024083014460807900_c51","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"11887","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1504964112","article-title":"Impact of human mobility on the emergence of dengue epidemics in Pakistan","volume":"112","year":"2015","journal-title":"Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A."},{"key":"2024083014460807900_c52","author":"WHO"},{"key":"2024083014460807900_c53","author":"WHO"},{"issue":"8","key":"2024083014460807900_c54","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1181","DOI":"10.1089\/vbz.2010.0032","article-title":"Distribution of Aedes albopictus (diptera: Culicidae) in northwestern China","volume":"11","year":"2011","journal-title":"Vector-Borne Zoonotic Dis."},{"issue":"1","key":"2024083014460807900_c55","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"113","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1618558114","article-title":"Climate variation drives dengue dynamics","volume":"114","year":"2017","journal-title":"Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A."},{"issue":"7","key":"2024083014460807900_c56","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"3910","DOI":"10.3390\/ijerph19073910","article-title":"Dengue fever in Mainland China, 2005-2020: A descriptive analysis of dengue cases and aedes data","volume":"19","year":"2022","journal-title":"Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health"},{"issue":"6","key":"2024083014460807900_c57","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2855","DOI":"10.3390\/ijerph18062855","article-title":"Spatial dynamics of dengue fever in mainland China, 2019","volume":"18","year":"2021","journal-title":"Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health"},{"key":"2024083014460807900_c58","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"82","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijid.2019.06.015","article-title":"Epidemiological dynamics of dengue fever in mainland China, 2014-2018","volume":"86","year":"2019","journal-title":"Int. J. Infect. Dis."},{"key":"2024083014460807900_c59","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"15","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijid.2021.04.010","article-title":"Co-circulation of three dengue virus serotypes led to a severe dengue outbreak in Xishuangbanna, a border area of China, Myanmar, and Laos, in 2019","volume":"107","year":"2021","journal-title":"Int. J. Infect. Dis."},{"issue":"Pt 1","key":"2024083014460807900_c60","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"969","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2018.09.182","article-title":"Effects of human mobility, temperature and mosquito control on the spatiotemporal transmission of dengue","volume":"651","year":"2019","journal-title":"Sci. Total Environ."}],"container-title":["Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/pubs.aip.org\/aip\/cha\/article-pdf\/doi\/10.1063\/5.0204336\/20138535\/083106_1_5.0204336.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"syndication"},{"URL":"https:\/\/pubs.aip.org\/aip\/cha\/article-pdf\/doi\/10.1063\/5.0204336\/20138535\/083106_1_5.0204336.pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2024,8,30]],"date-time":"2024-08-30T14:46:20Z","timestamp":1725029180000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/pubs.aip.org\/cha\/article\/34\/8\/083106\/3306806\/The-timeline-of-overseas-imported-cases-acts-as-a"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2024,8,1]]},"references-count":57,"journal-issue":{"issue":"8","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2024,8,1]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1063\/5.0204336","relation":{},"ISSN":["1054-1500","1089-7682"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1054-1500","type":"print"},{"value":"1089-7682","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published-other":{"date-parts":[[2024,8]]},"published":{"date-parts":[[2024,8,1]]},"article-number":"083106"}}