{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,26]],"date-time":"2025-10-26T22:33:46Z","timestamp":1761518026788,"version":"build-2065373602"},"reference-count":28,"publisher":"CSIRO Publishing","issue":"3","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,8,29]],"date-time":"2025-08-29T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1756425600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":5212,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc-nd\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2011,8,17]]},"abstract":"<jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Background<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Australia has experienced rising notifications of HIV diagnoses despite widely available combination antiretroviral therapy (CART). New HIV diagnoses have also been younger than the average age of those living with HIV. We investigated the degree to which several risk factors could explain this rise in notifications and the younger age profile. Methods: Numbers and ages of men who have sex with men (MSM) living with HIV in Australia from 1983 to 2007 were calculated from notifications of HIV diagnoses and deaths. We compared the trend over time as well as the average ages of MSM newly diagnosed with HIV infection from 1998 to 2007 with those for: notifications of gonorrhoea and syphilis, total MSM living with HIV infection, and the component not on CART. Results: The percentage of younger MSM not taking CART has increased since 1998 (aged &amp;lt;30 years P &amp;lt; 0.001; 30\u201339 years P = 0.004). The trend of new HIV diagnoses was most significantly correlated with the total number of MSM living with HIV infection and the sector not taking CART (P &amp;lt; 0.0001). Based on similarity of average ages, MSM living with HIV infection and not taking CART was the best predictor of the increasing trend in new HIV diagnoses (99.9999% probability, Akaike information criterion). Conclusions: Our analyses suggest MSM living with HIV infection and not taking CART could be the source of the increase in HIV infections. Consequently, greater CART enrolment should decrease HIV incidence, especially in younger MSM.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1071\/sh10114","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2011,5,13]],"date-time":"2011-05-13T00:55:37Z","timestamp":1305248137000},"page":"304-310","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":8,"title":["Increasing HIV diagnoses in Australia among men who have sex with men correlated with the growing number not taking antiretroviral therapy"],"prefix":"10.1071","volume":"8","author":[{"given":"John M.","family":"Murray","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"ASchool of Mathematics and Statistics, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia."},{"name":"BNational Centre in HIV Epidemiology and Clinical Research, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia."},{"name":"DCorresponding author. Email: J.Murray@unsw.edu.au"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Garrett","family":"Prestage","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"BNational Centre in HIV Epidemiology and Clinical Research, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia."}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Jeffrey","family":"Grierson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"CAustralian Research Centre in Sex, Health and Society, La Trobe University, 215 Franklin Street, Melbourne, Vic. 3000, Australia."}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Melanie","family":"Middleton","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"BNational Centre in HIV Epidemiology and Clinical Research, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia."}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Ann","family":"McDonald","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"BNational Centre in HIV Epidemiology and Clinical Research, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia."}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"67","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2011,5,23]]},"reference":[{"key":"2025102616593149800_R1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"423","DOI":"10.1016\/j.annepidem.2009.03.004","article-title":"Reemergence of the HIV epidemic among men who have sex with men in North America, Western Europe, and Australia, 1996\u20132005.","volume":"19","author":"Sullivan","year":"2009","journal-title":"Ann Epidemiol"},{"key":"2025102616593149800_R2"},{"key":"2025102616593149800_R3"},{"key":"2025102616593149800_R4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1397","DOI":"10.1097\/QAD.0b013e32832b7dca","article-title":"Sexual transmission of HIV according to viral load and antiretroviral therapy: systematic review and meta-analysis.","volume":"23","author":"Attia","year":"2009","journal-title":"AIDS"},{"key":"2025102616593149800_R5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"921","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJM200003303421303","article-title":"Viral load and heterosexual transmission of human immunodeficiency virus type 1. Rakai Project Study Group.","volume":"342","author":"Quinn","year":"2000","journal-title":"N Engl J Med"},{"key":"2025102616593149800_R6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"87","DOI":"10.7326\/0003-4819-146-2-200701160-00003","article-title":"Survival of persons with and without HIV infection in Denmark, 1995\u20132005.","volume":"146","author":"Lohse","year":"2007","journal-title":"Ann Intern Med"},{"key":"2025102616593149800_R7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"83","DOI":"10.1071\/SH08063","article-title":"Rapidly ageing HIV epidemic among men who have sex with men in Australia.","volume":"6","author":"Murray","year":"2009","journal-title":"Sex Health"},{"key":"2025102616593149800_R8"},{"key":"2025102616593149800_R9"},{"key":"2025102616593149800_R10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"165","DOI":"10.4414\/bms.2008.13252","article-title":"Les personnes s\u00e9ropositives ne souffrant d\u2019aucune autre MST et suivant un traitment antir\u00e9troviral efficace ne transmettent pas le VIH par voie sexuelle.","volume":"89","author":"Vernazza","year":"2008","journal-title":"Bull Med Suisses"},{"key":"2025102616593149800_R11"},{"key":"2025102616593149800_R12"},{"key":"2025102616593149800_R13"},{"key":"2025102616593149800_R14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"622","DOI":"10.1258\/095646207781568510","article-title":"State of the (positive) nation: findings from the fourth national Australian HIV futures survey.","volume":"18","author":"Grierson","year":"2007","journal-title":"Int J STD AIDS"},{"key":"2025102616593149800_R15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"169","DOI":"10.1071\/SH07099","article-title":"Using mathematical modelling to help explain the differential increase in HIV incidence in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland: importance of other sexually transmissible infections.","volume":"5","author":"Hoare","year":"2008","journal-title":"Sex Health"},{"key":"2025102616593149800_R16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"31","DOI":"10.1071\/SH06015","article-title":"Rising HIV notifications in Australia: accounting for the increase in people living with HIV and implications for the HIV transmission rate.","volume":"4","author":"Ginige","year":"2007","journal-title":"Sex Health"},{"key":"2025102616593149800_R17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"192","DOI":"10.3758\/BF03206482","article-title":"AIC model selection using Akaike weights.","volume":"11","author":"Wagenmakers","year":"2004","journal-title":"Psychon Bull Rev"},{"key":"2025102616593149800_R18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"19","DOI":"10.1071\/SH08081","article-title":"Importance of promoting HIV testing for preventing secondary transmissions: modelling the Australian HIV epidemic among men who have sex with men.","volume":"6","author":"Wilson","year":"2009","journal-title":"Sex Health"},{"key":"2025102616593149800_R19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"513","DOI":"10.1097\/01.aids.0000162340.43310.08","article-title":"No time to wait: how many HIV-infected homosexual men are diagnosed late and consequently die? 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