{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,31]],"date-time":"2026-01-31T16:16:39Z","timestamp":1769876199305,"version":"3.49.0"},"reference-count":38,"publisher":"CSIRO Publishing","issue":"4","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,5,8]],"date-time":"2025-05-08T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1746662400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":4808,"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1071\/journalslicense"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2012,6,20]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>The relative influence of the factors acting on burn probability, namely fuel and weather, is not well understood, especially in Europe. We use a digital fire atlas (1975\u20132008) and apply survival analysis to individual fires (1998\u20132008) to describe how burn probability changes with fuel age in Portugal. The typical fire return interval and median fire-free interval vary regionally from 23 to 52 and 18 to 47 years. Increase of the hazard of burning with time is generally near-linear, denoting moderate fuel-age dependency, as in some other shrub-dominated Mediterranean environments. Analysis of complete fire intervals resulted in shorter fire return interval and higher fuel-age dependency of burn probability than findings that included censored observations. Increasingly severe weather conditions either expressed through fire size or by extreme fire danger concurrently decreased fuel-age dependency and selected older fuels. The results are discussed from the viewpoints of fire suppression and fuel treatments.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1071\/wf10063","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2012,3,9]],"date-time":"2012-03-09T01:41:51Z","timestamp":1331257311000},"page":"380-384","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":63,"title":["Fuel age, weather and burn probability in Portugal"],"prefix":"10.1071","volume":"21","author":[{"given":"Paulo M.","family":"Fernandes","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"ACentro de Investiga\u00e7\u00e3o e de Tecnologias Agro-Ambientais e Tecnol\u00f3gicas (CITAB), Universidade de Tr\u00e1s-os-Montes e Alto Douro, Apartado 1013, PT-5001-801, Portugal."},{"name":"BDepartamento de Ci\u00eancias Florestais e Arquitectura Paisagista, Universidade de Tr\u00e1s-os-Montes e Alto Douro, Apartado 1013, PT-5001-801, Portugal."},{"name":"CCorresponding author. Email: pfern@utad.pt"}]},{"given":"Carlos","family":"Loureiro","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"ACentro de Investiga\u00e7\u00e3o e de Tecnologias Agro-Ambientais e Tecnol\u00f3gicas (CITAB), Universidade de Tr\u00e1s-os-Montes e Alto Douro, Apartado 1013, PT-5001-801, Portugal."},{"name":"BDepartamento de Ci\u00eancias Florestais e Arquitectura Paisagista, Universidade de Tr\u00e1s-os-Montes e Alto Douro, Apartado 1013, PT-5001-801, Portugal."}]},{"given":"Marco","family":"Magalh\u00e3es","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"BDepartamento de Ci\u00eancias Florestais e Arquitectura Paisagista, Universidade de Tr\u00e1s-os-Montes e Alto Douro, Apartado 1013, PT-5001-801, Portugal."}]},{"given":"Pedro","family":"Ferreira","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"BDepartamento de Ci\u00eancias Florestais e Arquitectura Paisagista, Universidade de Tr\u00e1s-os-Montes e Alto Douro, Apartado 1013, PT-5001-801, Portugal."}]},{"given":"Manuel","family":"Fernandes","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"BDepartamento de Ci\u00eancias Florestais e Arquitectura Paisagista, Universidade de Tr\u00e1s-os-Montes e Alto Douro, Apartado 1013, PT-5001-801, Portugal."}]}],"member":"67","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2012,3,9]]},"reference":[{"key":"2025112621351415700_R1","first-page":"1","article-title":"Divis\u00e3o regional do continente Portugu\u00eas.","volume":"9","author":"Albuquerque","year":"1961","journal-title":"Agricultura"},{"key":"2025112621351415700_R2"},{"key":"2025112621351415700_R3","first-page":"899","article-title":"Spatial scale invariance of southern Australian forest fires mirrors the scaling behaviour of fire-driving weather events.","volume":"23","author":"Boer","year":"2008","journal-title":"Landscape Ecology"},{"key":"2025112621351415700_R4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"132","DOI":"10.1016\/J.FORECO.2009.10.005","article-title":"Long-term impacts of prescribed burning on regional extent and incidence of wildfires \u2013 evidence from fifty years of active fire management in SW Australian forests.","volume":"259","author":"Boer","year":"2009","journal-title":"Forest Ecology and Management"},{"key":"2025112621351415700_R5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"145","DOI":"10.1111\/J.1466-8238.2009.00512.X","article-title":"A biogeographic model of fire regimes in Australia: current and future implications.","volume":"19","author":"Bradstock","year":"2010","journal-title":"Global Ecology and Biogeography"},{"key":"2025112621351415700_R6"},{"key":"2025112621351415700_R7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"328","DOI":"10.1071\/WF07014","article-title":"Fire activity in Portugal and its relationship to weather and the Canadian Fire Weather Index System.","volume":"17","author":"Carvalho","year":"2008","journal-title":"International Journal of Wildland Fire"},{"key":"2025112621351415700_R8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"983","DOI":"10.1071\/WF07044","article-title":"Spatial and temporal extremes of wildfire sizes in Portugal (1984\u20132004).","volume":"18","author":"de Zea Bermudez","year":"2009","journal-title":"International Journal of Wildland Fire"},{"key":"2025112621351415700_R9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"89","DOI":"10.1071\/WF02051","article-title":"Statistical analysis of fire frequency models for Catalonia (NE Spain, 1975\u20131998) based on fire scar maps from Landsat MSS data.","volume":"13","author":"D\u00edaz-Delgado","year":"2004","journal-title":"International Journal of Wildland Fire"},{"key":"2025112621351415700_R10"},{"key":"2025112621351415700_R11","unstructured":"Fernandes P, Botelho H, Cohen M, Cui\u00f1as P, Dupuy JL, Fonturbel T, Loureiro C, Mar\u00e9chal J, Petit P, P\u00e9rez-Gorostiaga P, Portier D, Rigolot E, Ruas L, Valette JC, Vega JA (2004) FIRE STAR: a decision support system for fuel management and fire hazard reduction in Mediterranean wildland\u2013urban interface. Field fires: second campaign. Deliverable D7-05, PIF 2004\u201309. 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