{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,31]],"date-time":"2026-03-31T12:31:01Z","timestamp":1774960261202,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":38,"publisher":"CSIRO Publishing","issue":"11","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,5,5]],"date-time":"2025-05-05T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1746403200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":669,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc-nd\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001871","name":"Funda\u00e7\u00e3o para a Ci\u00eancia e a Tecnologia","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["2022.09185.PTDC"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2022.09185.PTDC"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001871","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2023,11,22]]},"abstract":"<jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Background<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>The Iberian Peninsula is recurrently affected by severe wildfires resulting from an interplay of human activities, landscape features and atmospheric conditions.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Aims<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>The role played by atmospheric conditions on wildfire activity in 2001\u20132020 is assessed in four pyroregions of the Iberian Peninsula.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Wildfire activity is characterised by Fire Radiative Power (FRP) and meteorological danger is rated by the Fire Weather Index (FWI). The distribution of log10FRP in each pyroregion consists of a truncated lognormal central body with Generalised Pareto distributions as tails, and the model is improved using FWI as covariate. Synthetic time series of total annual FRP are generated using the models with and without FWI as covariate, and compared against observed FRP.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Key results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Pyroregions NW, N, SW and E present increases of 1, 5, 6 and 7% in interannual explained variance of FRP when progressing from the model without to that with FWI as covariate.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>The models developed characterise the role of meteorological conditions on fire activity in the Iberian Peninsula, and are especially valuable when comparing expected impacts for different scenarios of climate change.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Implications<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>The largest effects of atmospheric conditions on fire activity are in regions of the IP where the strongest impact of climate change is expected.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1071\/wf22137","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,7,6]],"date-time":"2023-07-06T03:01:35Z","timestamp":1688612495000},"page":"1529-1541","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":6,"title":["Assessing the role played by meteorological conditions on the interannual variability of fire activity in four subregions of Iberia"],"prefix":"10.1071","volume":"32","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8368-6447","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"S\u00edlvia A.","family":"Nunes","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"AInstituto Dom Luiz (IDL), Faculdade de Ci\u00eancias, Universidade de Lisboa, 1749-016, Lisbon, Portugal."}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1699-9886","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Carlos C.","family":"DaCamara","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"AInstituto Dom Luiz (IDL), Faculdade de Ci\u00eancias, Universidade de Lisboa, 1749-016, Lisbon, Portugal."}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2583-3669","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Jos\u00e9 M. C.","family":"Pereira","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"BCentro de Estudos Florestais, Instituto Superior de Agronomia, Universidade de Lisboa, 1349-017, Lisbon, Portugal."}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4183-9852","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Ricardo M.","family":"Trigo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"AInstituto Dom Luiz (IDL), Faculdade de Ci\u00eancias, Universidade de Lisboa, 1749-016, Lisbon, Portugal."}]}],"member":"67","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,7,6]]},"reference":[{"key":"2025112620530687800_R1"},{"key":"2025112620530687800_R2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"193","DOI":"10.1214\/AOMS\/1177729437","article-title":"Asymptotic theory of certain \u2018goodness of fit\u2019 criteria based on stochastic processes.","volume":"23","author":"Anderson","year":"1952","journal-title":"The Annals of Mathematical Statistics"},{"issue":"10","key":"2025112620530687800_R3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"500","DOI":"10.1038\/s43017-020-0085-3","article-title":"Vegetation Fires in the Anthropocene.","volume":"1","author":"Bowman","year":"2020","journal-title":"Nature Reviews Earth & Environment"},{"key":"2025112620530687800_R4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/rs12061044","article-title":"Copernicus Global Land Cover Layers\u2014Collection 2.","volume":"12","author":"Buchhorn","year":"2020","journal-title":"Remote Sensing"},{"issue":"9","key":"2025112620530687800_R5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1123","DOI":"10.1016\/j.envsoft.2011.03.012","article-title":"Fire weather risk assessment under climate change using a dynamical downscaling approach.","volume":"26","author":"Carvalho","year":"2011","journal-title":"Environmental Modelling & Software"},{"key":"2025112620530687800_R6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/fire5030061","article-title":"Reducing Rural Fire Risk through the Development of a Sustainable Supply Chain Model for Residual Agroforestry Biomass Supported in a Web Platform: A Case Study in Portugal Central Region with the Project BioAgroFloRes.","volume":"5","author":"Casau","year":"2022","journal-title":"Fire"},{"key":"2025112620530687800_R7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"543","DOI":"10.1007\/s10113-010-0169-6","article-title":"Sensitivity of Portuguese forest fires to climatic, human, and landscape variables: subnational differences between fire drivers in extreme fire years and decadal averages.","volume":"11","author":"Costa","year":"2011","journal-title":"Regional Environmental Change"},{"key":"2025112620530687800_R8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"972","DOI":"10.1038\/s41558-018-0299-2","article-title":"Climate change and interconnected risks to sustainable development in the Mediterranean.","volume":"8","author":"Cramer","year":"2018","journal-title":"Nature Climate Change"},{"key":"2025112620530687800_R9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"945","DOI":"10.1071\/WF13157","article-title":"Calibration of the Fire Weather Index over Mediterranean Europe based on fire activity retrieved from MSG satellite imagery.","volume":"23","author":"DaCamara","year":"2014","journal-title":"International Journal of Wildland Fire"},{"key":"2025112620530687800_R10"},{"key":"2025112620530687800_R11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2139\/ssrn.4125271","article-title":"Modeling fire radiative power released by vegetation fires at the global scale using a two generalized Pareto tail lognormal body distribution.","author":"DaCamara","year":"2022","journal-title":"SSRN Electronic Journal"},{"key":"2025112620530687800_R12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"483","DOI":"10.1175\/JHM578.1","article-title":"The outstanding 2004\/05 drought in the Iberian Peninsula: associated atmospheric circulation.","volume":"8","author":"Garc\u00eda-Herrera","year":"2007","journal-title":"Journal of Hydrometeorology"},{"key":"2025112620530687800_R13"},{"key":"2025112620530687800_R14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"259","DOI":"10.1127\/0941-2948\/2006\/0130","article-title":"WorldMap of the K\u00f6ppen-Geiger climate classification updated.","volume":"15","author":"Kottek","year":"2006","journal-title":"Meteorologische Zeitschrift"},{"key":"2025112620530687800_R15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"4545","DOI":"10.1029\/2017JD027823","article-title":"Comparison of Fire Radiative Power estimates from VIIRS and MODIS observations.","volume":"123","author":"Li","year":"2018","journal-title":"Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres"},{"key":"2025112620530687800_R16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"745","DOI":"10.1023\/A:1022966930861","article-title":"Wildfires and landscape patterns in the Eastern Iberian Peninsula.","volume":"17","author":"Lloret","year":"2002","journal-title":"Landscape Ecology"},{"key":"2025112620530687800_R17"},{"key":"2025112620530687800_R18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"215","DOI":"10.1007\/s10584-011-0060-6","article-title":"Fire regime changes in the Western Mediterranean Basin: from fuel-limited to drought-driven fire regime.","volume":"110","author":"Pausas","year":"2012","journal-title":"Climatic Change"},{"key":"2025112620530687800_R19"},{"issue":"3","key":"2025112620530687800_R20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"187","DOI":"10.3354\/cr01176","article-title":"Effects of regional climate change on rural fires in Portugal.","volume":"57","author":"Pereira","year":"2013","journal-title":"Climate Research"},{"key":"2025112620530687800_R21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"11","DOI":"10.1016\/j.agrformet.2004.12.007","article-title":"Synoptic patterns associated with large summer forest fires in Portugal.","volume":"129","author":"Pereira","year":"2005","journal-title":"Agricultural and Forest Meteorology"},{"issue":"6","key":"2025112620530687800_R22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/eap.2588","article-title":"Wild, Tamed, and Domesticated: Three Fire Macroregimes for Global Pyrogeography in the Anthropocene.","volume":"32","author":"Pereira","year":"2022","journal-title":"Ecological Applications"},{"issue":"19","key":"2025112620530687800_R23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/app9194155","article-title":"Evolution of burned area in forest fires under climate change conditions in southern Spain using ANN.","volume":"9","author":"P\u00e9rez-S\u00e1nchez","year":"2019","journal-title":"Applied Sciences"},{"key":"2025112620530687800_R24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"119","DOI":"10.1214\/aos\/1176343003","article-title":"Statistical inference using extreme order statistics.","volume":"3","author":"Pickands III","year":"1975","journal-title":"The Annals of Statistics"},{"key":"2025112620530687800_R25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"515","DOI":"10.5194\/nhess-18-515-2018","article-title":"Fire danger rating over Mediterranean Europe based on Fire Radiative Power derived from Meteosat.","volume":"18","author":"Pinto","year":"2018","journal-title":"Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences"},{"key":"2025112620530687800_R26","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1088\/1748-9326\/ab9e22","article-title":"Enhancing the fire weather index with atmospheric instability information.","volume":"15","author":"Pinto","year":"2020","journal-title":"Environmental Research Letters"},{"key":"2025112620530687800_R27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"553","DOI":"10.1016\/j.pce.2009.09.003","article-title":"Circulation patterns, wildfire risk and wildfire occurrence at continental Spain.","volume":"35","author":"Rasilla","year":"2010","journal-title":"Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A\/B\/C"},{"key":"2025112620530687800_R28","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-020-70069-z","article-title":"Increased likelihood of heat-induced large wildfires in the Mediterranean Basin.","volume":"10","author":"Ruffault","year":"2020","journal-title":"Scientific Reports"},{"key":"2025112620530687800_R29","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"11","DOI":"10.1016\/j.agrformet.2014.11.018","article-title":"Different approaches to model future burnt area in the Iberian Peninsula.","volume":"202","author":"Sousa","year":"2015","journal-title":"Agricultural and Forest Meteorology"},{"issue":"6","key":"2025112620530687800_R30","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"450","DOI":"10.5558\/tfc65450-6","article-title":"The Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System: an overview.","volume":"65","author":"Stocks","year":"1989","journal-title":"The Forestry Chronicle"},{"issue":"13","key":"2025112620530687800_R31","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1741","DOI":"10.1002\/joc.1333","article-title":"Atmospheric conditions associated with the exceptional fire season of 2003 in Portugal.","volume":"26","author":"Trigo","year":"2006","journal-title":"International Journal of Climatology"},{"issue":"7","key":"2025112620530687800_R32","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2761","DOI":"10.1002\/joc.3749","article-title":"Modelling wildfire activity in Iberia with different atmospheric circulation weather types.","volume":"36","author":"Trigo","year":"2016","journal-title":"International Journal of Climatology"},{"key":"2025112620530687800_R33","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-019-50281-2","article-title":"Climate drivers of the 2017 devastating fires in Portugal.","volume":"9","author":"Turco","year":"2019","journal-title":"Scientific Reports"},{"key":"2025112620530687800_R34"},{"key":"2025112620530687800_R35","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41597-020-0554-z","article-title":"ERA5-based global meteorological wildfire danger maps.","volume":"7","author":"Vitolo","year":"2020","journal-title":"Scientific Data"},{"key":"2025112620530687800_R36","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"307","DOI":"10.2307\/1912557","article-title":"Likelihood Ratio Tests for Model Selection and Non-Nested Hypotheses.","volume":"57","author":"Vuong","year":"1989","journal-title":"Econometrica"},{"key":"2025112620530687800_R37"},{"key":"2025112620530687800_R38","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2005JD006318","article-title":"Retrieval of biomass combustion rates and totals from Fire Radiative Power observations: FRP derivation and calibration relationships between biomass consumption and fire radiative energy release.","volume":"110","author":"Wooster","year":"2005","journal-title":"Journal of Geophysical Research"}],"container-title":["International Journal of Wildland Fire"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/connectsci.au\/wf\/article-pdf\/32\/11\/1529%20\/152809\/wf22137.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"syndication"},{"URL":"https:\/\/connectsci.au\/wf\/article-pdf\/32\/11\/1529%20\/152809\/wf22137.pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,11,27]],"date-time":"2025-11-27T01:53:13Z","timestamp":1764208393000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/connectsci.au\/wf\/article\/32\/11\/1529%20\/21917\/Assessing-the-role-played-by-meteorological"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2023,7,6]]},"references-count":38,"journal-issue":{"issue":"11","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2023,11,22]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1071\/wf22137","relation":{},"ISSN":["1049-8001","1448-5516"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1049-8001","type":"print"},{"value":"1448-5516","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2023,7,6]]}}}