{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,27]],"date-time":"2026-10-27T07:49:46Z","timestamp":1793087386718,"version":"4.5.0"},"reference-count":34,"publisher":"National Academy of Sciences","issue":"35","content-domain":{"domain":["www.pnas.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2006,8,29]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>\n                    The bacterium\n                    <jats:italic>Yersinia pestis<\/jats:italic>\n                    causes bubonic plague. In Central Asia, where human plague is still reported regularly, the bacterium is common in natural populations of great gerbils. By using field data from 1949\u20131995 and previously undescribed statistical techniques, we show that\n                    <jats:italic>Y. pestis<\/jats:italic>\n                    prevalence in gerbils increases with warmer springs and wetter summers: A 1\u00b0C increase in spring is predicted to lead to a &gt;50% increase in prevalence. Climatic conditions favoring plague apparently existed in this region at the onset of the Black Death as well as when the most recent plague pandemic arose in the same region, and they are expected to continue or become more favorable as a result of climate change. Threats of outbreaks may thus be increasing where humans live in close contact with rodents and fleas (or other wildlife) harboring endemic plague.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.0602447103","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2006,8,21]],"date-time":"2006-08-21T20:39:52Z","timestamp":1156192792000},"page":"13110-13115","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1073\/pnas.cm10313","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":223,"title":["Plague dynamics are driven by climate variation"],"prefix":"10.1073","volume":"103","author":[{"given":"Nils Chr.","family":"Stenseth","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"*Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biology, University of Oslo, P.O. Box 1066, Blindern, 0316 Oslo, Norway;"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Noelle I.","family":"Samia","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242;"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Hildegunn","family":"Viljugrein","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"*Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biology, University of Oslo, P.O. Box 1066, Blindern, 0316 Oslo, Norway;"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Kyrre Linn\u00e9","family":"Kausrud","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"*Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biology, University of Oslo, P.O. Box 1066, Blindern, 0316 Oslo, Norway;"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Mike","family":"Begon","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Biological Sciences, Biosciences Building, University of Liverpool, Liverpool L69 7ZB, United Kingdom;"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Stephen","family":"Davis","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Evolutionary Biology Group, University of Antwerp, Groenenborgerlaan 171, BE-2020 Antwerp, Belgium;"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Herwig","family":"Leirs","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Evolutionary Biology Group, University of Antwerp, Groenenborgerlaan 171, BE-2020 Antwerp, Belgium;"},{"name":"**Danish Pest Infestation Laboratory, Department of Integrated Pest Management, Danish Institute of Agricultural Sciences, Skovbrynet 14, DK-2800 Kongens Lyngby, Denmark;"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"V. M.","family":"Dubyanskiy","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Kazakh Scientific Centre for Quarantine and Zoonotic Diseases, Almaty, Kazakhstan; and"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jan","family":"Esper","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Swiss Federal Research Institute (WSL), Z\u00fcrcherstrasse 111, 8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Vladimir S.","family":"Ageyev","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Swiss Federal Research Institute (WSL), Z\u00fcrcherstrasse 111, 8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Nikolay L.","family":"Klassovskiy","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Swiss Federal Research Institute (WSL), Z\u00fcrcherstrasse 111, 8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Sergey B.","family":"Pole","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Swiss Federal Research Institute (WSL), Z\u00fcrcherstrasse 111, 8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Kung-Sik","family":"Chan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242;"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"341","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2006,8,29]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_4_1_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.95.21.12637"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_2_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.220225197"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_3_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.7589\/0090-3558-8.1.85"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_4_2","first-page":"97","volume":"3","author":"Dubianskii M. A.","year":"1982","unstructured":"M. A. Dubianskii, L. D. Dubianskaia, L. I. Kochkina, V. M. Milin, I. Z. Zhubanazarov Zh. Mikrobiol. Epidemiol. Immunobiol. 3, 97\u2013100 (1982).","journal-title":"Zh. Mikrobiol. Epidemiol. Immunobiol."},{"key":"e_1_3_4_5_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev.ento.50.071803.130337"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_6_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.2002.66.186"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_7_2","first-page":"235","volume":"2","author":"Stapp P.","year":"2004","unstructured":"P. Stapp, M. F. Antolin, M. Ball Front. Ecol. Environ. 2, 235\u2013240 (2004).","journal-title":"Front. Ecol. Environ."},{"key":"e_1_3_4_8_2","first-page":"478","volume-title":"Plague and Plague Control in the Soviet Union","author":"Pollitzer R.","year":"1966","unstructured":"R. Pollitzer Plague and Plague Control in the Soviet Union (Fordham Univ., Bronx, New York), pp. 478 (1966)."},{"key":"e_1_3_4_9_2","first-page":"207","volume-title":"The Middle Asia Desert Nature Plague Focus","author":"Aikimbayev M. A.","year":"1987","unstructured":"M. A. Aikimbayev, S. A. Aubakirov, A. S. Burdelov, L. N. Klassovskiy, O. S. Serjanov The Middle Asia Desert Nature Plague Focus (Nauka, Alma-Ata, Kazakhstan), pp. 207 (1987)."},{"key":"e_1_3_4_10_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1644\/1545-1542(2001)082<0906:IOIPON>2.0.CO;2"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_11_2","first-page":"257","volume-title":"Fleas","author":"Bibikova V. A.","year":"1980","unstructured":"V. A. Bibikova, I. F. Zhovtyi Fleas, eds R. Traub, H. Starcke (Balkema, Rotterdam, The Netherlands), pp. 257\u2013272 (1980)."},{"key":"e_1_3_4_12_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1095854"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_13_2","author":"Samia N. I.","year":"2006","unstructured":"N. I. Samia, K.-S. Chan, N. C. Stenseth Biometrika, in press. (2006).","journal-title":"Biometrika"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_14_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1093\/oso\/9780198522249.001.0001","volume-title":"Non-linear Time Series: A Dynamical System Approach","author":"Tong H.","year":"1990","unstructured":"H. Tong Non-linear Time Series: A Dynamical System Approach (Oxford Univ. Press, Oxford, 1990)."},{"key":"e_1_3_4_15_2","first-page":"433","volume":"2","author":"Zolotova S. I.","year":"1968","unstructured":"S. I. Zolotova Parasitology 2, 433\u2013437 (1968).","journal-title":"Parasitology"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_16_2","first-page":"188","volume-title":"The Transmission of Plague by Fleas","author":"Bibikova V. A.","year":"1974","unstructured":"V. A. Bibikova, L. N. Klassovskiy The Transmission of Plague by Fleas (Meditsina, Moscow), pp. 188 (1974)."},{"key":"e_1_3_4_17_2","first-page":"352","volume-title":"Ph.D. thesis","author":"Dubyanskiy M. A.","year":"1983","unstructured":"M. A. Dubyanskiy Ph.D. thesis (Plague Control Research Institute \u201cMicrobe,\u201d Saratov, Russia), pp. 352 (1983)."},{"key":"e_1_3_4_18_2","first-page":"240","volume-title":"Forecast of Epizootic Activity of Plague Near Aral Sea and Kizilkum","author":"Dubyanskiy M. A.","year":"1992","unstructured":"M. A. Dubyanskiy, A. Kenjebaev, V. M. Stepanov, G. A. Asenov, L. D. Dubyanskaya Forecast of Epizootic Activity of Plague Near Aral Sea and Kizilkum (Karakalpakstan, Nukus, Karakalpakstan), pp. 240 (1992)."},{"key":"e_1_3_4_19_2","first-page":"1045","volume":"42","author":"Bibikova V. A.","year":"1963","unstructured":"V. A. Bibikova, V. L. Ilinskaya, Z. P. Kaluzhenova, I. V. Morozova, M. I. Shmuter Zool. J. (Moscow) 42, 1045\u20131051 (1963).","journal-title":"Zool. J. (Moscow)"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_20_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1046\/j.0269-283x.2001.00295.x"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_21_2","first-page":"881","volume-title":"Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change","author":"Houghton J. T.","year":"2001","unstructured":", eds J. T. Houghton, Y. Ding, D. J. Griggs, M. Noguer, P. J. van der Linden, X. Dai, K. Maskell, C. A. Johnson (Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, U.K.) Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, pp. 881 (2001)."},{"key":"e_1_3_4_22_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10393-004-0139-x"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_23_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S0031182004004925"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_24_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1289\/ehp.01109s1141"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_25_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/415710a"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_26_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.0408026101"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_27_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/BAMS-84-9-1205"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_28_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jhydrol.2005.07.003"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_29_2","first-page":"140","volume-title":"Plague in the Balkhash\u2013Alakol Depression","author":"Sapozhnikov V. I.","year":"2001","unstructured":"V. I. Sapozhnikov, O. S. Serzhan, A. V. Bezverkhni, G. G. Kovaleva, E. Sh. Kopbaev Plague in the Balkhash\u2013Alakol Depression (Rakhat, Almaty, Kazakhstan), pp. 140 (2001)."},{"key":"e_1_3_4_30_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.0006-341X.2005.030536.x"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_31_2","first-page":"369","volume":"29","author":"Bykov T. L.","year":"1985","unstructured":"T. L. Bykov, D. C. Tsoi, K. R. Rakhimov J. Hyg. Epidemiol. Microbiol. Immunol. 29, 369\u2013376 (1985).","journal-title":"J. Hyg. Epidemiol. Microbiol. Immunol."},{"key":"e_1_3_4_32_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s00382-003-0356-y"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_33_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/nature04743"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_34_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0442(2003)016<3186:LCCOLB>2.0.CO;2"}],"container-title":["Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/pnas.org\/doi\/pdf\/10.1073\/pnas.0602447103","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2024,2,5]],"date-time":"2024-02-05T20:53:16Z","timestamp":1707166396000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/pnas.org\/doi\/full\/10.1073\/pnas.0602447103"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2006,8,29]]},"references-count":34,"journal-issue":{"issue":"35","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2006,8,29]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1073\/pnas.0602447103"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1073\/pnas.0602447103","relation":{"has-review":[{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.3410\/f.1040538.489529","asserted-by":"object"},{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.3410\/f.1040538.496560","asserted-by":"object"}]},"ISSN":["0027-8424","1091-6490"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0027-8424","type":"print"},{"value":"1091-6490","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2006,8,29]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2006-03-26","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2006-08-29","order":2,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}]}}