{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,30]],"date-time":"2026-10-30T18:24:45Z","timestamp":1793384685132,"version":"4.5.0"},"reference-count":35,"publisher":"National Academy of Sciences","issue":"14","content-domain":{"domain":["www.pnas.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2008,4,8]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>\n                    We use a chemistry-climate model and new estimates of smoke produced by fires in contemporary cities to calculate the impact on stratospheric ozone of a regional nuclear war between developing nuclear states involving 100 Hiroshima-size bombs exploded in cities in the northern subtropics. We find column ozone losses in excess of 20% globally, 25\u201345% at midlatitudes, and 50\u201370% at northern high latitudes persisting for 5 years, with substantial losses continuing for 5 additional years. Column ozone amounts remain near or &lt;220 Dobson units at all latitudes even after three years, constituting an extratropical \u201cozone hole.\u201d The resulting increases in UV radiation could impact the biota significantly, including serious consequences for human health. The primary cause for the dramatic and persistent ozone depletion is heating of the stratosphere by smoke, which strongly absorbs solar radiation. The smoke-laden air rises to the upper stratosphere, where removal mechanisms are slow, so that much of the stratosphere is ultimately heated by the localized smoke injections. Higher stratospheric temperatures accelerate catalytic reaction cycles, particularly those of odd-nitrogen, which destroy ozone. In addition, the strong convection created by rising smoke plumes alters the stratospheric circulation, redistributing ozone and the sources of ozone-depleting gases, including N\n                    <jats:sub>2<\/jats:sub>\n                    O and chlorofluorocarbons. The ozone losses predicted here are significantly greater than previous \u201cnuclear winter\/UV spring\u201d calculations, which did not adequately represent stratospheric plume rise. Our results point to previously unrecognized mechanisms for stratospheric ozone depletion.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.0710058105","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2008,4,7]],"date-time":"2008-04-07T21:06:33Z","timestamp":1207602393000},"page":"5307-5312","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1073\/pnas.cm10313","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":123,"title":["Massive global ozone loss predicted following regional nuclear conflict"],"prefix":"10.1073","volume":"105","author":[{"given":"Michael J.","family":"Mills","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"*Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics and"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Owen B.","family":"Toon","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"*Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics and"},{"name":"Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Colorado, 392 UCB, Boulder, CO 80309-0392;"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Richard P.","family":"Turco","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California, Box 951496, 300 La Kretz Hall, 7157 Math Sciences Building, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1496; and"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Douglas E.","family":"Kinnison","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"National Center for Atmospheric Research, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307-5000"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Rolando R.","family":"Garcia","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"National Center for Atmospheric Research, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307-5000"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"341","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2008,4,8]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_3_1_2","first-page":"114","article-title":"The atmosphere after a nuclear war: Twilight at noon","volume":"11","author":"Crutzen PJ","year":"1982","unstructured":"PJ Crutzen, JW Birks, The atmosphere after a nuclear war: Twilight at noon. 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