{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,10]],"date-time":"2026-06-10T16:00:02Z","timestamp":1781107202807,"version":"3.54.1"},"reference-count":36,"publisher":"National Academy of Sciences","issue":"31","content-domain":{"domain":["www.pnas.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2009,8,4]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>International research and development efforts in Africa have brought ecological and social change, but analyzing the consequences of this change and developing policy to manage it for sustainable development has been difficult. This has been largely due to a lack of conceptual and analytical models to access the interacting dynamics of the different components of ecosocial systems. Here, we examine the ecological and social changes resulting from an ongoing suppression of trypanosomiasis disease in cattle in an agropastoral community in southwest Ethiopia to illustrate how such problems may be addressed. The analysis combines physiologically based demographic models of pasture, cattle, and pastoralists and a bioeconomic model that includes the demographic models as dynamic constraints in the economic objective function that maximizes the utility of individual consumption under different level of disease risk in cattle. Field data and model analysis show that suppression of trypanosomiasis leads to increased cattle and human populations and to increased agricultural development. However, in the absence of sound management, these changes will lead to a decline in pasture quality and increase the risk from tick-borne diseases in cattle and malaria in humans that would threaten system sustainability and resilience. The analysis of these conflicting outcomes of trypanosomiasis suppression is used to illustrate the need for and utility of conceptual bioeconomic models to serve as a basis for developing policy for sustainable agropastoral resource management in sub-Saharan Africa.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.0813126106","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2009,7,21]],"date-time":"2009-07-21T21:07:45Z","timestamp":1248210465000},"page":"13136-13141","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1073\/pnas.cm10313","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":9,"title":["Ecosocial consequences and policy implications of disease management in East African agropastoral systems"],"prefix":"10.1073","volume":"106","author":[{"given":"Andrew Paul","family":"Gutierrez","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Ecosystem Science, University of California, Berkeley, CA 194720;"},{"name":"Center for the Analysis of Sustainable Agricultural Systems, 37 Arlington Avenue, Kensington, CA 94707;"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Gianni","family":"Gilioli","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Center for the Analysis of Sustainable Agricultural Systems, 37 Arlington Avenue, Kensington, CA 94707;"},{"name":"Department of Management of Agricultural and Silvicultural Systems, Mediterranean University of Reggio Calabria, 89060 Reggio di Calabria, Italy; and"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Johann","family":"Baumg\u00e4rtner","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Center for the Analysis of Sustainable Agricultural Systems, 37 Arlington Avenue, Kensington, CA 94707;"},{"name":"Institute of Agricultural Entomology, University of Milan, 20133 Milan, Italy"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"341","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2009,8,4]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_3_1_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.20506\/rst.22.3.1448"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_2_2","volume-title":"Our Common Future","author":"United Nations","year":"1987","unstructured":"; United Nations Our Common Future (Oxford Univ Press, Oxford, United Nations World Commission on Environment and Development (WCED). (1987)."},{"key":"e_1_3_3_3_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev.es.26.110195.000245"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_4_2","volume-title":"Barriers and Bridges to the Renewal of Ecosystems and Institutions","author":"Gunderson LH","year":"1995","unstructured":"LH Gunderson, CS Holling, SS Light Barriers and Bridges to the Renewal of Ecosystems and Institutions (Columbia Univ Press, New York, 1995)."},{"key":"e_1_3_3_5_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.gloenvcha.2006.04.002"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_6_2","volume-title":"Adaptive Environmental Assessment and Management. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria","author":"Holling CS","year":"1978","unstructured":"CS Holling Adaptive Environmental Assessment and Management. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria (Wiley, Chichester, UK, 1978)."},{"key":"e_1_3_3_7_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5751\/ES-00650-090205"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_8_2","volume-title":"Panarchy: Understanding Transformations in Human and Natural Systems","author":"Gunderson LH","year":"2002","unstructured":", eds LH Gunderson, CS Holling (Island, Washington, DC Panarchy: Understanding Transformations in Human and Natural Systems, 2002)."},{"key":"e_1_3_3_9_2","author":"Folke C","year":"2002","unstructured":"C Folke, et al. Scientific Background Paper on Resilience for the Process of the World Summit on Sustainable Development, available at www.resalliance.org\/files\/1144440669_resilience_and_sustainable_development.pdf. (2002).","journal-title":"Scientific Background Paper on Resilience for the Process of the World Summit on Sustainable Development"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_10_2","first-page":"69","volume-title":"in Proceedings of MEDRAP Concerted Action to Support the Northern Mediterranean Action Programme to Combat Desertification","author":"van der Leeuw SE","year":"2007","unstructured":"SE van der Leeuw in Proceedings of MEDRAP Concerted Action to Support the Northern Mediterranean Action Programme to Combat Desertification, eds G Enne, D Peter, C Zannolla, C Zucca (Centro Interdipartimentale di Ateneo\u2014Nucleo di Ricerca sulla Desertificazione, Universit\u00e0 di Sassari, Sassari, Italy), pp. 69\u201382 (2007)."},{"key":"e_1_3_3_11_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10021-001-0045-9"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_12_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4039\/Ent116923-7"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_13_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1940879"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_14_2","first-page":"301","volume-title":"in Perspectives in Ecology and Integrated Pest Management","author":"Gutierrez AP","year":"2007","unstructured":"AP Gutierrez, J Baumg\u00e4rtner in Perspectives in Ecology and Integrated Pest Management, eds M Kogan, P Jepson (Cambridge Univ Press, Cambridge, UK), pp. 301\u2013360 (2007)."},{"key":"e_1_3_3_15_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1890\/1540-9295(2003)001[0023:PCEMEF]2.0.CO;2"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_16_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9780511606748"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_17_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0921-8009(97)00103-1"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_18_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecolecon.2004.05.007"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_19_2","first-page":"37","volume-title":"in Integrated Pest Management Systems and Cotton Production","author":"Gutierrez AP","year":"1989","unstructured":"AP Gutierrez, GL Curry in Integrated Pest Management Systems and Cotton Production, eds RE Frisbie, KM El-Zik, LT Wilson (Wiley\u2013Interscience, New York), pp. 37\u201364 (1989)."},{"key":"e_1_3_3_20_2","first-page":"21","volume-title":"in Proceedings of the 13th Symposium on Tropical Animal Health Production, October 18, 2002","author":"Wambwa E","year":"2002","unstructured":"E Wambwa in Proceedings of the 13th Symposium on Tropical Animal Health Production, October 18, 2002 (Utrecht Univ, The Netherlands), pp. 21\u201325 (2002)."},{"key":"e_1_3_3_21_2","volume-title":"Inst Biol Chem Nutr","author":"Golder A","year":"2001","unstructured":"A Golder, Health and nutritional status of mothers and children below 5 years in the BioVillage Project area, Wolkite, Ethiopia. Inst Biol Chem Nutr (Univ of Hohenheim, Germany, 2001)."},{"key":"e_1_3_3_22_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1023\/B:AHUM.0000014023.30611.ad"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_23_2","first-page":"225","article-title":"Eco-social effects of community participatory tsetse (Glossina spp.) (Diptera Glossinidae) and bovine trypanosomiasis management at Luke, Southwestern Ethiopia","volume":"38","author":"Tikubet G","year":"2006","unstructured":"G Tikubet, et al., Eco-social effects of community participatory tsetse (Glossina spp.) (Diptera Glossinidae) and bovine trypanosomiasis management at Luke, Southwestern Ethiopia. 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