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Likelihood maximization analysis predicts the best model for the reaction coordinates of each substep as well as tentative transition states, without further simulation. We find that the unfolding of the \u03b1-helical region 43\u201351 is followed by sequential solvent exposure of both Glu46 and the chromophore. Which of these two residues is exposed first is correlated with the presence of a salt bridge that is part of the N-terminal domain. Additional molecular dynamics simulations indicate that the exposure of the chromophore does not result in a productive pathway. We discuss several possibilities for experimental validation of these predictions. 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