{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,1]],"date-time":"2026-10-01T21:36:32Z","timestamp":1790890592825,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":21,"publisher":"National Academy of Sciences","issue":"35","content-domain":{"domain":["www.pnas.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2011,8,30]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>\n                    Plague (caused by the bacterium\n                    <jats:italic>Yersinia pestis<\/jats:italic>\n                    ) is a zoonotic reemerging infectious disease with reservoirs in rodent populations worldwide. Using one-half of a century of unique data (1949\u20131995) from Kazakhstan on plague dynamics, including data on the main rodent host reservoir (great gerbil), main vector (flea), human cases, and external (climate) conditions, we analyze the full ecoepidemiological (bubonic) plague system. We show that two epidemiological threshold quantities play key roles: one threshold relating to the dynamics in the host reservoir, and the second threshold relating to the spillover of the plague bacteria into the human population.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1015946108","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2011,8,19]],"date-time":"2011-08-19T22:47:12Z","timestamp":1313794032000},"page":"14527-14532","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1073\/pnas.cm10313","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":64,"title":["Dynamics of the plague\u2013wildlife\u2013human system in Central Asia are controlled by two epidemiological thresholds"],"prefix":"10.1073","volume":"108","author":[{"given":"Noelle I.","family":"Samia","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Statistics, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL 60208;"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Kyrre Linn\u00e9","family":"Kausrud","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), University of Oslo, N-0316 Oslo, Norway;"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Hans","family":"Heesterbeek","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Theoretical Epidemiology, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Utrecht University, 3584 CL, Utrecht, The Netherlands;"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Vladimir","family":"Ageyev","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Kazakh Scientific Centre for Quarantine and Zoonotic Diseases, Almaty 050054, Republic of Kazakhstan;"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Mike","family":"Begon","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute of Integrative Biology, University of Liverpool, Liverpool L69 7ZB, United Kingdom; and"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Kung-Sik","family":"Chan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Nils C.","family":"Stenseth","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), University of Oslo, N-0316 Oslo, Norway;"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"341","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2011,8,19]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_3_1_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.0050003"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_2_2","volume-title":"Plague","author":"Pollitzer R","year":"1954","unstructured":"R Pollitzer Plague (World Health Organization, Geneva, 1954)."},{"key":"e_1_3_3_3_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev.ento.50.071803.130337"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_4_2","volume-title":"Plague and Plague Control in the Soviet Union","author":"Pollitzer R","year":"1966","unstructured":"R Pollitzer Plague and Plague Control in the Soviet Union (Fordham University, Bronx, NY, 1966)."},{"key":"e_1_3_3_5_2","first-page":"1963","article-title":"Climatically-driven synchrony of gerbil populations allows large-scale plague outbreaks","volume":"274","author":"Kausrud KL","year":"2007","unstructured":"KL Kausrud, et al., Climatically-driven synchrony of gerbil populations allows large-scale plague outbreaks. Proc R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 274, 1963\u20131969 (2007).","journal-title":"Proc R Soc Lond B Biol Sci"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_6_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.0602447103"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_7_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.0606831103"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_8_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rsif.2006.0160"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_9_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3201\/eid1202.050651"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_10_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.0006-341X.2005.030536.x"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_11_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/biomet\/asr008"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_12_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1002826107"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_13_2","volume-title":"Plague in the Balkhash\u2014Alakol Depression","author":"Sapozhnikov V","year":"2001","unstructured":"V Sapozhnikov, OS Serzhan, AV Bezverkhni, GG Kovaleva, ES Kopbaev Plague in the Balkhash\u2014Alakol Depression (Rakhat, Almaty, Kazakhstan, 2001)."},{"key":"e_1_3_3_14_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1095854"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_15_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/nature07053"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_16_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2000.1272"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_17_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"viii","DOI":"10.1093\/oso\/9780198545996.001.0001","volume-title":"Infectious Diseases of Humans: Dynamics and Control","author":"Anderson RM","year":"1991","unstructured":"RM Anderson, RM May Infectious Diseases of Humans: Dynamics and Control (Oxford University Press, Oxford), pp. viii (1991)."},{"key":"e_1_3_3_18_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1603\/0022-2585-38.5.629"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_19_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/biomet\/asm006"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_20_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"xvi","DOI":"10.1007\/978-1-4419-0318-1","volume-title":"Mixed-Effects Models in S and S-PLUS","author":"Pinheiro JC","year":"2000","unstructured":"JC Pinheiro, DM Bates Mixed-Effects Models in S and S-PLUS (Springer, New York), pp. xvi (2000)."},{"key":"e_1_3_3_21_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/35038073"}],"container-title":["Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/pnas.org\/doi\/pdf\/10.1073\/pnas.1015946108","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2024,4,10]],"date-time":"2024-04-10T05:33:19Z","timestamp":1712727199000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/pnas.org\/doi\/full\/10.1073\/pnas.1015946108"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2011,8,19]]},"references-count":21,"journal-issue":{"issue":"35","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2011,8,30]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1073\/pnas.1015946108"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1073\/pnas.1015946108","relation":{},"ISSN":["0027-8424","1091-6490"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0027-8424","type":"print"},{"value":"1091-6490","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2011,8,19]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2011-08-19","order":2,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}]}}