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Our modeling analysis demonstrates that the responses of plague intensity to dry\/wet conditions were different in northern and southern China. In northern China, plague intensity generally increased when wetness increased, for both the current and the previous year, except for low intensity during extremely wet conditions in the current year (reflecting a dome-shaped response to current-year dryness\/wetness). In southern China, plague intensity generally decreased when wetness increased, except for high intensity during extremely wet conditions of the current year. These opposite effects are likely related to the different climates and rodent communities in the two parts of China: In northern China (arid climate), rodents are expected to respond positively to high precipitation, whereas in southern China (humid climate), high precipitation is likely to have a negative effect. Our results suggest that associations between human plague intensity and precipitation are nonlinear: positive in dry conditions, but negative in wet conditions.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1019486108","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2011,6,6]],"date-time":"2011-06-06T21:58:27Z","timestamp":1307397507000},"page":"10214-10219","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1073\/pnas.cm10313","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":90,"title":["Nonlinear effect of climate on plague during the third pandemic in China"],"prefix":"10.1073","volume":"108","author":[{"given":"Lei","family":"Xu","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"State Key Laboratory of Integrated Management on Pest Insects and Rodents, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China;"},{"name":"Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Qiyong","family":"Liu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"State Key Laboratory for Infectious Diseases Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China;"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Leif Chr.","family":"Stige","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis, Department of Biology, University of Oslo, Blindern, 0316 Oslo, Norway;"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Tamara","family":"Ben Ari","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis, Department of Biology, University of Oslo, Blindern, 0316 Oslo, Norway;"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Xiye","family":"Fang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China;"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Kung-Sik","family":"Chan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Statistics and Actuarial Sciences, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242; and"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Shuchun","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China;"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Nils Chr.","family":"Stenseth","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis, Department of Biology, University of Oslo, Blindern, 0316 Oslo, Norway;"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Zhibin","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"State Key Laboratory of Integrated Management on Pest Insects and Rodents, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China;"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"341","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2011,6,6]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_3_1_2","first-page":"447","volume":"74","author":"World Health Organization","year":"1999","unstructured":"; World Health Organization Plague Manual: Epidemiology Distribution, Surveillance and Control. 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