{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,20]],"date-time":"2026-10-20T18:35:37Z","timestamp":1792521337470,"version":"4.5.0"},"reference-count":42,"publisher":"National Academy of Sciences","issue":"21","content-domain":{"domain":["www.pnas.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2012,5,22]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>\n                    Carrying out statistical analysis over an extensive dataset of human plague reports in Chinese villages from 1772 to 1964, we identified plague endemic territories in China (i.e., plague foci). Analyses rely on (\n                    <jats:italic>i<\/jats:italic>\n                    ) a clustering method that groups time series based on their time-frequency resemblances and (\n                    <jats:italic>ii<\/jats:italic>\n                    ) an ecological niche model that helps identify plague suitable territories characterized by value ranges for a set of predefined environmental variables. Results from both statistical tools indicate the existence of two disconnected plague territories corresponding to Northern and Southern China. Altogether, at least four well defined independent foci are identified. Their contours compare favorably with field observations. Potential and limitations of inferring plague foci and dynamics using epidemiological data is discussed.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1110585109","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2012,5,8]],"date-time":"2012-05-08T22:59:15Z","timestamp":1336517955000},"page":"8196-8201","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1073\/pnas.cm10313","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":49,"title":["Identification of Chinese plague foci from long-term epidemiological data"],"prefix":"10.1073","volume":"109","author":[{"given":"Tamara","family":"Ben-Ari","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis, Department of Biology, University of Oslo, N-0316 Oslo, Norway;"},{"name":"Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Ecole Normale Sup\u00e9rieure, Unit\u00e9 Mixte de Recherche 7625, Universit\u00e9 Pierre et Marie Curie, 75230 Paris Cedex 05, France;"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Simon","family":"Neerinckx","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis, Department of Biology, University of Oslo, N-0316 Oslo, Norway;"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Lydiane","family":"Agier","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis, Department of Biology, University of Oslo, N-0316 Oslo, Norway;"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Bernard","family":"Cazelles","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Ecole Normale Sup\u00e9rieure, Unit\u00e9 Mixte de Recherche 7625, Universit\u00e9 Pierre et Marie Curie, 75230 Paris Cedex 05, France;"},{"name":"Unit\u00e9 de Mod\u00e9lisation Math\u00e9matique et Informatique des Syst\u00e8mes Complexes, UMI 209, Institut de Recherche pour le D\u00e9veloppement et Universit\u00e9 Pierre et Marie Curie, 93142 Bondy Cedex, France;"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Lei","family":"Xu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"State Key Laboratory of Integrated Management on Pest Insects and Rodents, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; and"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Zhibin","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"State Key Laboratory of Integrated Management on Pest Insects and Rodents, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; and"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Xiye","family":"Fang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"State Key Laboratory for Infectious Diseases Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Shuchun","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"State Key Laboratory for Infectious Diseases Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Qiyong","family":"Liu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"State Key Laboratory for Infectious Diseases Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Nils C.","family":"Stenseth","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis, Department of Biology, University of Oslo, N-0316 Oslo, Norway;"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"341","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2012,5,8]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_3_1_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev.ento.50.071803.130337"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_2_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.0050003"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_3_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.0602447103"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_4_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1515\/9781503616134"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_5_2","first-page":"380","volume-title":"Plague and the End of Antiquity. 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