{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,27]],"date-time":"2026-07-27T04:52:05Z","timestamp":1785127925908,"version":"3.55.0"},"reference-count":45,"publisher":"National Academy of Sciences","issue":"10","content-domain":{"domain":["www.pnas.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2012,3,6]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>In debates on societal collapse, Iceland occupies a position of precarious survival, defined by not becoming extinct, like Norse Greenland, but having endured, sometimes by the narrowest of margins. Classic decline narratives for late medieval to early modern Iceland stress compounding adversities, where climate, trade, political domination, unsustainable practices, and environmental degradation conspire with epidemics and volcanism to depress the Icelanders and turn the once-proud Vikings and Saga writers into one of Europe's poorest nations. A mainstay of this narrative is the impact of incidental setbacks such as plague and volcanism, which are seen to have compounded and exacerbated underlying structural problems. This research shows that this view is not correct. We present a study of landscape change that uses 15 precisely dated tephra layers spanning the whole 1,200-y period of human settlement in Iceland. These tephras have provided 2,625 horizons of known age within 200 stratigraphic sections to form a high-resolution spatial and temporal record of change. This finding shows short-term (50 y) declines in geomorphological activity after two major plagues in A.D. 15th century, variations that probably mirrored variations in the population. In the longer term, the geomorphological impact of climate changes from the 14th century on is delayed, and landscapes (as well as Icelandic society) exhibit resilience over decade to century timescales. This finding is not a simple consequence of depopulation but a reflection of how Icelandic society responded with a scaling back of their economy, conservation of core functionality, and entrenchment of the established order.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1113937109","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2012,2,28]],"date-time":"2012-02-28T00:25:32Z","timestamp":1330388732000},"page":"3664-3669","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1073\/pnas.cm10313","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":49,"title":["Plague and landscape resilience in premodern Iceland"],"prefix":"10.1073","volume":"109","author":[{"given":"Richard","family":"Streeter","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Geography, School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH8 9XP, United Kingdom; and"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Andrew J.","family":"Dugmore","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Geography, School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH8 9XP, United Kingdom; and"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Orri","family":"V\u00e9steinsson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Archaeology, University of Iceland, 101 Reykjav\u00edk, Iceland"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"341","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2012,2,27]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_3_1_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-2699.2006.01674.x"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_2_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.palaeo.2008.03.008"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_3_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1023\/A:1021161006022"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_4_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.quageo.2010.08.003"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_5_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3721\/037.002.0103"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_6_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0304-4181(96)00017-6"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_7_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s00334-003-0002-y"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_8_2","volume-title":"The Ecology of Expansion and Abandonment: Medieval and Post-Medieval Land-Use and Settlement Dynamics in a Landscape Perspective","author":"Lager\u00e5s P","year":"2007","unstructured":"P Lager\u00e5s The Ecology of Expansion and Abandonment: Medieval and Post-Medieval Land-Use and Settlement Dynamics in a Landscape Perspective (Riksantikvarie\u00e4mbetet, Stockholm, 2007)."},{"key":"e_1_3_3_9_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.margeo.2004.05.011"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_10_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1177303"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_11_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1525\/aa.2007.109.1.27"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_12_2","volume-title":"Soil Erosion in Iceland","author":"Arnalds O","year":"2001","unstructured":"O Arnalds, et al. Soil Erosion in Iceland (Soil Conservation Service and Agricultural Research Institute, Reykjavik, Iceland, 2001)."},{"key":"e_1_3_3_13_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/1468-0459.00155"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_14_2","volume-title":"Digital Vegetation Index Map of Iceland, Technical Report","author":"LMI (The Icelandic Geodetic Institute)","year":"1993","unstructured":"; LMI (The Icelandic Geodetic Institute) Digital Vegetation Index Map of Iceland, Technical Report (The Icelandic Geodetic Survey, Reykjavik, Iceland, 1993)."},{"key":"e_1_3_3_15_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"147","DOI":"10.1007\/978-94-011-3150-6_10","volume-title":"Environmental Change in Iceland: Past and Present","author":"Dugmore AJ","year":"1991","unstructured":"AJ Dugmore, P Buckland Environmental Change in Iceland: Past and Present, eds JK Maizels, C Caseldine (Kluwer, Dordrecht, The Netherlands), pp. 147\u2013159 (1991)."},{"key":"e_1_3_3_16_2","first-page":"63","volume-title":"Environmental Change in Iceland","author":"Dugmore AJ","year":"1994","unstructured":"AJ Dugmore, CC Erskine Environmental Change in Iceland, eds J St\u00f6tter, F Wilhelm (Munchener Geographische Abhandlungen, Munich), pp. 63\u201378 (1994)."},{"key":"e_1_3_3_17_2","volume-title":"Census 1703","author":"National Archives of Iceland Livestock","unstructured":"; National Archives of Iceland Livestock Census 1703 (National Archives of Iceland, Reykjav\u00edk, Iceland"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_18_2","volume-title":"Manntal \u00e1 \u00cdsland \u00e1ri\u00f0 1703","author":"Magn\u00fasson A","year":"1924","unstructured":"A Magn\u00fasson, P Vidal\u00edn Manntal \u00e1 \u00cdsland \u00e1ri\u00f0 1703 (Hagstofa, Reykjavik, 1924)."},{"key":"e_1_3_3_19_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/jqs.1129"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_20_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.33799\/jokull2000.49.001","article-title":"Holocene eruptions within the Katla volcanic system, south Iceland: Characteristics and environmental impact","volume":"49","author":"Larsen G","year":"2000","unstructured":"G Larsen, Holocene eruptions within the Katla volcanic system, south Iceland: Characteristics and environmental impact. J\u00f6kull 49, 1\u201328 (2000).","journal-title":"J\u00f6kull"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_21_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"53","DOI":"10.33799\/jokull2005.55.053","article-title":"The Katla volcano s-Iceland: Holocene tephra stratigraphy and eruption frequency","volume":"55","author":"\u00d3lad\u00f3ttir B","year":"2005","unstructured":"B \u00d3lad\u00f3ttir, G Larsen, T Thordarson, O Sigmarsson, The Katla volcano s-Iceland: Holocene tephra stratigraphy and eruption frequency. J\u00f6kull 55, 53\u201374 (2005).","journal-title":"J\u00f6kull"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_22_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/B978-0-12-639120-6.50010-8"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_23_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2001JD002042"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_24_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1525\/ae.1996.23.2.02a00100"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_25_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1179\/env.2000.5.1.21"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_26_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF00144609"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_27_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.epsl.2008.03.017"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_28_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1191\/0959683602hl542ft"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_29_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0341-8162(00)00137-5"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_30_2","first-page":"60","volume-title":"Sau\u00f0kindin landi\u00f0 og \u00dej\u00f3\u00f0in","author":"A\u00f0alsteinsson S","year":"1981","unstructured":"S A\u00f0alsteinsson Sau\u00f0kindin landi\u00f0 og \u00dej\u00f3\u00f0in (Bjallan, Reykjavik, Iceland), pp. 60\u201361 (1981)."},{"key":"e_1_3_3_31_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jas.2006.12.014"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_32_2","first-page":"365","volume-title":"Degrees of Success: Evaluating the Environmental Impacts of Long Term Settlement in South Iceland, Publications from the National Museum, Studies in Archaeology and History","author":"Mairs KA","year":"2006","unstructured":"KA Mairs, M Church, AJ Dugmore, G Sveinbjarnardottir Degrees of Success: Evaluating the Environmental Impacts of Long Term Settlement in South Iceland, Publications from the National Museum, Studies in Archaeology and History, eds J Arneborg, B Gr\u00f8nnow (PNN, Copenhagen), pp. 365\u2013373 (2006)."},{"key":"e_1_3_3_33_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.quascirev.2005.12.004"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_34_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.yqres.2008.07.001"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_35_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1191\/0959683602hl531rp"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_36_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/213106"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_37_2","volume-title":"Iceland's 1100 Years: The History of a Marginal Society","author":"Karlsson G","year":"2000","unstructured":"G Karlsson Iceland's 1100 Years: The History of a Marginal Society (C. Hurst, London, 2000)."},{"key":"e_1_3_3_38_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1115292109"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_39_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S003382220003085X"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_40_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/jqs.587"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_41_2","first-page":"238","article-title":"Ash layers from Iceland in the Greenland GRIP ice core correlated with oceanic and land based sediments","volume":"54","author":"Gronv\u00f6ld K","year":"1995","unstructured":"K Gronv\u00f6ld, et al., Ash layers from Iceland in the Greenland GRIP ice core correlated with oceanic and land based sediments. Earth Planet Sci Lett 54, 238\u2013246 (1995).","journal-title":"Earth Planet Sci Lett"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_42_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1029\/2005JD006921","article-title":"A synchronized dating of three Greenland Ice cores throughout the Holocene","volume":"111","author":"Vinther BM","year":"2006","unstructured":"BM Vinther, et al., A synchronized dating of three Greenland Ice cores throughout the Holocene. J Geophys Res 111, 1\u201311 (2006).","journal-title":"J Geophys Res"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_43_2","unstructured":"S Th\u00f3rarinsson The eruptions of Hekla in historical times. (Leiftur Reykjavik) 1\u2013183 (1967)."},{"key":"e_1_3_3_44_2","first-page":"125","volume-title":"Katla and the Annals of Katla Eruptions","author":"Th\u00f3rarinsson S","year":"1975","unstructured":"S Th\u00f3rarinsson Katla and the Annals of Katla Eruptions (Arb\u00f3k Ferdaf\u00e9lags \u00cdslands, Reykjavik), pp. 125\u2013149 (1975)."},{"key":"e_1_3_3_45_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0377-0273(84)90034-9"}],"container-title":["Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/pnas.org\/doi\/pdf\/10.1073\/pnas.1113937109","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2024,4,20]],"date-time":"2024-04-20T16:33:31Z","timestamp":1713630811000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/pnas.org\/doi\/full\/10.1073\/pnas.1113937109"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2012,2,27]]},"references-count":45,"journal-issue":{"issue":"10","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2012,3,6]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1073\/pnas.1113937109"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1073\/pnas.1113937109","relation":{},"ISSN":["0027-8424","1091-6490"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0027-8424","type":"print"},{"value":"1091-6490","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2012,2,27]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2012-02-27","order":2,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}]}}