{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,6]],"date-time":"2026-10-06T16:18:48Z","timestamp":1791303528391,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":48,"publisher":"National Academy of Sciences","issue":"40","content-domain":{"domain":["www.pnas.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2013,10]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>\n                    Identifying the major sources of risk in disease transmission is key to designing effective controls. However, understanding of transmission dynamics across species boundaries is typically poor, making the design and evaluation of controls particularly challenging for zoonotic pathogens. One such global pathogen is\n                    <jats:italic>Escherichia coli<\/jats:italic>\n                    O157, which causes a serious and sometimes fatal gastrointestinal illness. Cattle are the main reservoir for\n                    <jats:italic>E. coli<\/jats:italic>\n                    O157, and vaccines for cattle now exist. However, adoption of vaccines is being delayed by conflicting responsibilities of veterinary and public health agencies, economic drivers, and because clinical trials cannot easily test interventions across species boundaries, lack of information on the public health benefits. Here, we examine transmission risk across the cattle\u2013human species boundary and show three key results. First, supershedding of the pathogen by cattle is associated with the genetic marker\n                    <jats:italic>stx2<\/jats:italic>\n                    . Second, by quantifying the link between shedding density in cattle and human risk, we show that only the relatively rare supershedding events contribute significantly to human risk. Third, we show that this finding has profound consequences for the public health benefits of the cattle vaccine. A na\u00efve evaluation based on efficacy in cattle would suggest a 50% reduction in risk; however, because the vaccine targets the major source of human risk, we predict a reduction in human cases of nearly 85%. By accounting for nonlinearities in transmission across the human\u2013animal interface, we show that adoption of these vaccines by the livestock industry could prevent substantial numbers of human\n                    <jats:italic>E. coli<\/jats:italic>\n                    O157 cases.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1304978110","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2013,9,17]],"date-time":"2013-09-17T00:23:51Z","timestamp":1379377431000},"page":"16265-16270","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1073\/pnas.cm10313","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":105,"title":["Predicting the public health benefit of vaccinating cattle against\n                    <i>Escherichia<\/i>\n                    <i>coli<\/i>\n                    O157"],"prefix":"10.1073","volume":"110","author":[{"given":"Louise","family":"Matthews","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Boyd Orr Centre for Population and Ecosystem Health, Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, College of Medical, Veterinary and Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow G61 1QH, United Kingdom;"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Richard","family":"Reeve","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Boyd Orr Centre for Population and Ecosystem Health, Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, College of Medical, Veterinary and Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow G61 1QH, United Kingdom;"},{"name":"The Pirbright Institute, Woking, Surrey GU24 0NF, United Kingdom;"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"David L.","family":"Gally","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Immunity and Infection Division, The Roslin Institute and"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"J. Chris","family":"Low","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Royal (Dick) School of Veterinary Science, University of Edinburgh, Midlothian EH25 9RG, United Kingdom;"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Mark E. J.","family":"Woolhouse","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Immunity, Infection and Evolution, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH9 3JT, United Kingdom;"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Sean P.","family":"McAteer","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Immunity and Infection Division, The Roslin Institute and"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Mary E.","family":"Locking","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Health Protection Scotland, Glasgow G2 6QE, United Kingdom;"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Margo E.","family":"Chase-Topping","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Immunity, Infection and Evolution, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH9 3JT, United Kingdom;"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Daniel T.","family":"Haydon","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Boyd Orr Centre for Population and Ecosystem Health, Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, College of Medical, Veterinary and Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow G61 1QH, United Kingdom;"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Lesley J.","family":"Allison","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Scottish E. coli O157\/VTEC Reference Laboratory, Department of Laboratory Medicine, Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH16 4SA, United Kingdom;"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Mary F.","family":"Hanson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Scottish E. coli O157\/VTEC Reference Laboratory, Department of Laboratory Medicine, Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH16 4SA, United Kingdom;"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"George J.","family":"Gunn","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"SRUC, Edinburgh EH9 3JG, United Kingdom; and"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Stuart W. J.","family":"Reid","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Royal Veterinary College, Hertfordshire AL9 7TA, United Kingdom"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"341","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2013,9,16]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_3_1_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(10)60963-4"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_2_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4315\/0362-028X.JFP-11-058"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_3_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1099\/00221287-148-12-3767"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_4_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1089\/fpd.2009.0290"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_5_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1089\/fpd.2009.0336"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_6_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1863-2378.2012.01523.x"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_7_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1863-2378.2011.01426.x"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_8_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.vaccine.2009.10.076"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_9_2","volume-title":"Preslaughter Interventions Could Reduce E. coli in Cattle","author":"US Government Accountability Office","year":"2012","unstructured":"; US Government Accountability Office Preslaughter Interventions Could Reduce E. coli in Cattle (US Government Accountability Office, Washington DC, 2012)."},{"key":"e_1_3_3_10_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10393-012-0747-9"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_11_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(05)67731-8"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_12_2","unstructured":"Ayles A. (2012) Cattle vaccine in Canada could have prevented massive beef recall. Available at www.foodbeat.com\/food-news\/cattle-vaccine-in-canada-could-have-prevented-massive-beef-recall\/. Accessed October 16 2012."},{"key":"e_1_3_3_13_2","volume-title":"Review of the Major Outbreak of E. coli O157 in Surrey, 2009. Report of the Independent Investigation Committee","author":"Health Protection Agency","year":"2010","unstructured":"; Health Protection Agency Review of the Major Outbreak of E. coli O157 in Surrey, 2009. 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