{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,16]],"date-time":"2026-10-16T07:44:27Z","timestamp":1792136667422,"version":"4.4.0"},"reference-count":16,"publisher":"National Academy of Sciences","issue":"16","content-domain":{"domain":["www.pnas.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2002,8,6]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>In the event of a smallpox bioterrorist attack in a large U.S. city, the interim response policy is to isolate symptomatic cases, trace and vaccinate their contacts, quarantine febrile contacts, but vaccinate more broadly if the outbreak cannot be contained by these measures. We embed this traced vaccination policy in a smallpox disease transmission model to estimate the number of cases and deaths that would result from an attack in a large urban area. Comparing the results to mass vaccination from the moment an attack is recognized, we find that mass vaccination results in both far fewer deaths and much faster epidemic eradication over a wide range of disease and intervention policy parameters, including those believed most likely, and that mass vaccination similarly outperforms the existing policy of starting with traced vaccination and switching to mass vaccination only if required.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.162282799","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2002,9,30]],"date-time":"2002-09-30T12:42:53Z","timestamp":1033389773000},"page":"10935-10940","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1073\/pnas.cm10313","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":306,"title":["Emergency response to a smallpox attack: The case for mass vaccination"],"prefix":"10.1073","volume":"99","author":[{"given":"Edward H.","family":"Kaplan","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Yale University School of Management, and Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, CT 06520-8200; and Operations Research Center and Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139-3407"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"David L.","family":"Craft","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Yale University School of Management, and Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, CT 06520-8200; and Operations Research Center and Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139-3407"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Lawrence M.","family":"Wein","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Yale University School of Management, and Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, CT 06520-8200; and Operations Research Center and Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139-3407"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"341","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2002,7,12]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_3_1_2","unstructured":"Fenner F. Henderson D. A. Arita I. Jezek Z. & Ladnyi I. D. (1988) Smallpox and Its Eradication (World Health Organization Geneva)."},{"key":"e_1_3_3_2_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.283.5406.1279"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_3_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/414677b"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_4_2","unstructured":"Centers for Disease Control (2001) CDC Interim Smallpox Response Plan and Guidelines (Centers for Disease Control Atlanta GA) Draft 2.0."},{"key":"e_1_3_3_5_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.281.22.2127"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_6_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3201\/eid0706.010607"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_7_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0025-5564(91)90050-S"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_8_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Anderson R. M. & May R. M. (1991) Infectious Diseases of Humans (Oxford Univ. Press Oxford).","DOI":"10.1093\/oso\/9780198545996.001.0001"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_9_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/414748a"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_10_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0025-5564(99)00061-9"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_11_2","unstructured":"Division of Nursing Bureau of Health Professions Health Resources and Services Administration (2001) The Registered Nurse Population (Health Resources and Services Administration Washington DC)."},{"key":"e_1_3_3_12_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/00007435-199811000-00012"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_13_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/infdis\/125.2.161"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_14_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/oxfordjournals.aje.a121380"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_15_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJM200204253461713"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_16_2","unstructured":"O'Toole T. & Inglesby T. (2001) Shining Light on Dark Winter (Johns Hopkins Center for Civilian Biodefense Strategies Baltimore)."}],"container-title":["Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/pnas.org\/doi\/pdf\/10.1073\/pnas.162282799","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2024,1,6]],"date-time":"2024-01-06T23:11:29Z","timestamp":1704582689000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/pnas.org\/doi\/full\/10.1073\/pnas.162282799"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2002,7,12]]},"references-count":16,"journal-issue":{"issue":"16","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2002,8,6]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1073\/pnas.162282799"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1073\/pnas.162282799","relation":{},"ISSN":["0027-8424","1091-6490"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0027-8424","type":"print"},{"value":"1091-6490","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2002,7,12]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2002-05-10","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2002-07-12","order":2,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}]}}