{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,23]],"date-time":"2026-06-23T04:21:09Z","timestamp":1782188469159,"version":"3.54.5"},"reference-count":60,"publisher":"National Academy of Sciences","issue":"50","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2018,5,27]],"date-time":"2018-05-27T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1527379200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":181,"URL":"http:\/\/www.pnas.org\/site\/aboutpnas\/licenses.xhtml"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000001","name":"National Science Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["DEB-1457815"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["DEB-1457815"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000001","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000913","name":"James S. McDonnell Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["Complex Systems Scholar grant"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["Complex Systems Scholar grant"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000913","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.pnas.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2017,12,12]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Significance<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Changes in species\u2019 phenology, the seasonal timing of life history events, constitute one of the most unambiguous consequences of climate warming and one of the least understood. As our climate continues to warm and become more variable, we need theory that can explain the current phenological patterns and predict future changes. We present a mathematical framework that translates temperature effects on the phenotypic traits of individual organisms to the population-level phenological patterns observed in ectotherms. It is sufficiently mechanistic to yield accurate predictions and sufficiently broad to apply across ectothermic taxa. Its power lies in generating predictions based solely on life history trait responses to temperature and hence completely independent of the population-level observations of phenological changes.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1711221114","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2017,11,27]],"date-time":"2017-11-27T15:00:16Z","timestamp":1511794816000},"page":"13212-13217","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1073\/pnas.cm10313","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":119,"title":["Predicting phenological shifts in a changing climate"],"prefix":"10.1073","volume":"114","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7656-676X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Katherine","family":"Scranton","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Priyanga","family":"Amarasekare","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"341","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2017,11,27]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_3_1_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3177","DOI":"10.1098\/rstb.2010.0148","article-title":"The effects of phenological mismatches on demography","volume":"365","author":"Miller-Rushing AJ","year":"2010","unstructured":"AJ Miller-Rushing, TT H\u00f8ye, DW Inouye, E Post, The effects of phenological mismatches on demography. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 365, 3177\u20133186 (2010).","journal-title":"Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_2_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"49","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cois.2016.07.002","article-title":"Complex responses of insect phenology to climate change","volume":"17","author":"Forrest JR","year":"2016","unstructured":"JR Forrest, Complex responses of insect phenology to climate change. Curr Opin Insect Sci 17, 49\u201354 (2016).","journal-title":"Curr Opin Insect Sci"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_3_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"389","DOI":"10.1038\/416389a","article-title":"Ecological responses to recent climate change","volume":"416","author":"Walther GR","year":"2002","unstructured":"GR Walther, E Post, P Convery, A Menzel, C Parmesan, Ecological responses to recent climate change. Nature 416, 389\u2013395 (2002).","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_4_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"57","DOI":"10.1038\/nature01333","article-title":"Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants","volume":"421","author":"Root TL","year":"2003","unstructured":"TL Root, , Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants. Nature 421, 57\u201360 (2003).","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_5_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1860","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-2486.2007.01404.x","article-title":"Influences of species, latitudes and methodologies on estimates of phenological response to global warming","volume":"13","author":"Parmesan C","year":"2007","unstructured":"C Parmesan, Influences of species, latitudes and methodologies on estimates of phenological response to global warming. Glob Change Biol 13, 1860\u20131872 (2007).","journal-title":"Glob Change Biol"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_6_2","volume-title":"The Evolution of Life Histories: Theory and Analysis","author":"Roff D","year":"1992","unstructured":"D Roff The Evolution of Life Histories: Theory and Analysis (Chapman and Hall, New York, 1992)."},{"key":"e_1_3_3_7_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"329","DOI":"10.1006\/jtbi.1996.0224","article-title":"Adult size in ectotherms: Temperature effects on growth and differentiation","volume":"183","author":"Van der Have TM","year":"1996","unstructured":"TM Van der Have, G de Jong, Adult size in ectotherms: Temperature effects on growth and differentiation. J Theor Biol 183, 329\u2013340 (1996).","journal-title":"J Theor Biol"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_8_2","first-page":"755","article-title":"The well-temperatured biologist","volume":"174","author":"Kingsolver J","year":"2009","unstructured":"J Kingsolver, The well-temperatured biologist. Am Nat 174, 755\u2013768 (2009).","journal-title":"Am Nat"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_9_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2248","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1061967","article-title":"Effects of size and temperature on metabolic rate","volume":"293","author":"Gillooly JF","year":"2001","unstructured":"JF Gillooly, JH Brown, GB West, VM Savage, EL Charnov, Effects of size and temperature on metabolic rate. Science 293, 2248\u20132251 (2001).","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_10_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"70","DOI":"10.1038\/417070a","article-title":"Effects of size and temperature on developmental time","volume":"417","author":"Gillooly JF","year":"2002","unstructured":"JF Gillooly, , Effects of size and temperature on developmental time. Nature 417, 70\u201373 (2002).","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_11_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"204","DOI":"10.1086\/321314","article-title":"Temperature, demography, and ectotherm fitness","volume":"158","author":"Huey R","year":"2001","unstructured":"R Huey, D Berrigan, Temperature, demography, and ectotherm fitness. Am Nat 158, 204\u2013210 (2001).","journal-title":"Am Nat"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_12_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"6668","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.0709472105","article-title":"Impacts of climate warming on terrestrial ectotherms across latitude","volume":"105","author":"Deutsch CJ","year":"2008","unstructured":"CJ Deutsch, , Impacts of climate warming on terrestrial ectotherms across latitude. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 105, 6668\u20136672 (2008).","journal-title":"Proc Natl Acad Sci USA"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_13_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"10591","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1015178108","article-title":"Systematic variation in the temperature dependence of physiological and ecological traits","volume":"108","author":"Dell A","year":"2011","unstructured":"A Dell, S Pawar, VM Savage, Systematic variation in the temperature dependence of physiological and ecological traits. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 108, 10591\u201310596 (2011).","journal-title":"Proc Natl Acad Sci USA"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_14_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"719","DOI":"10.1093\/icb\/icr015","article-title":"Complex life cycles and the responses of insects to climate change","volume":"51","author":"Kingsolver J","year":"2011","unstructured":"J Kingsolver, , Complex life cycles and the responses of insects to climate change. Integr Comp Biol 51, 719\u2013732 (2011).","journal-title":"Integr Comp Biol"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_15_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"178","DOI":"10.1086\/663677","article-title":"A mechanistic framework for elucidating the temperature dependence of fitness","volume":"179","author":"Amarasekare P","year":"2012","unstructured":"P Amarasekare, V Savage, A mechanistic framework for elucidating the temperature dependence of fitness. Am Nat 179, 178\u2013191 (2012).","journal-title":"Am Nat"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_16_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"649","DOI":"10.1016\/0022-5193(77)90265-X","article-title":"Reaction kinetics of poikilotherm development","volume":"64","author":"Sharpe P","year":"1977","unstructured":"P Sharpe, D DeMichele, Reaction kinetics of poikilotherm development. J Theor Biol 64, 649\u2013670 (1977).","journal-title":"J Theor Biol"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_17_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"719","DOI":"10.1016\/0022-5193(81)90246-0","article-title":"Non-linear regression of biological temperature-dependent rate models based on absolute reaction-rate theory","volume":"88","author":"Schoolfield R","year":"1981","unstructured":"R Schoolfield, J Sharpe, C Magnuson, Non-linear regression of biological temperature-dependent rate models based on absolute reaction-rate theory. J Theor Biol 88, 719\u2013731 (1981).","journal-title":"J Theor Biol"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_18_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"141","DOI":"10.1034\/j.1600-0706.2002.980115.x","article-title":"A proximate model for thermal tolerance in ectotherms","volume":"98","author":"Van der Have T","year":"2002","unstructured":"T Van der Have, A proximate model for thermal tolerance in ectotherms. Oikos 98, 141\u2013155 (2002).","journal-title":"Oikos"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_19_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"175","DOI":"10.1007\/BF02418571","article-title":"Sur les fonctions convexes et les in\u2019egalit\u00e9s entre les valeurs moyennes","volume":"30","author":"Jensen JLWV","year":"1906","unstructured":"JLWV Jensen, Sur les fonctions convexes et les in\u2019egalit\u00e9s entre les valeurs moyennes. Acta Mathematica 30, 175\u2013193 (1906).","journal-title":"Acta Mathematica"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_20_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"E31","DOI":"10.1086\/690293","article-title":"Evolution of thermal reaction norms in seasonally varying environments","volume":"189","author":"Amarasekare P","year":"2017","unstructured":"P Amarasekare, C Johnson, Evolution of thermal reaction norms in seasonally varying environments. Am Nat 189, E31\u2013E45 (2017).","journal-title":"Am Nat"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_21_2","first-page":"1296","article-title":"Climate warming puts the heat on tropical ectotherms","volume":"320","author":"Tewksbury JJ","year":"2008","unstructured":"JJ Tewksbury, RB Huey, C Deutsch, Climate warming puts the heat on tropical ectotherms. Science 320, 1296\u20131297 (2008).","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_22_2","volume-title":"Climate Change 2014 - Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects","author":"Field C","year":"2014","unstructured":", eds C Field, (Cambridge Univ Press, New York Climate Change 2014 - Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects, 2014)."},{"key":"e_1_3_3_23_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"631","DOI":"10.1098\/rstb.2009.0268","article-title":"Developmental plasticity and the evolution of animal complex life cycles","volume":"365","author":"Minelli A","year":"2010","unstructured":"A Minelli, G Fusco, Developmental plasticity and the evolution of animal complex life cycles. Philos Trans R Soc B Biol Sci 365, 631\u2013640 (2010).","journal-title":"Philos Trans R Soc B Biol Sci"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_24_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"351","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jtbi.2004.10.016","article-title":"Unifying temperature effects on the growth rate of bacteria and the stability of globular proteins","volume":"233","author":"Ratkowsky D","year":"2005","unstructured":"D Ratkowsky, J Olley, T Ross, Unifying temperature effects on the growth rate of bacteria and the stability of globular proteins. J Theor Biol 233, 351\u2013362 (2005).","journal-title":"J Theor Biol"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_25_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"637","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev.ecolsys.37.091305.110100","article-title":"Ecological and evolutionary responses to recent climate change","volume":"37","author":"Parmesan C","year":"2006","unstructured":"C Parmesan, Ecological and evolutionary responses to recent climate change. Annu Rev Ecol Syst 37, 637\u2013669 (2006).","journal-title":"Annu Rev Ecol Syst"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_26_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"545","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1461-0248.2012.01765.x","article-title":"Forecasting phenology: From species variability to community patterns","volume":"15","author":"Diez JM","year":"2012","unstructured":"JM Diez, , Forecasting phenology: From species variability to community patterns. Ecol Lett 15, 545\u2013553 (2012).","journal-title":"Ecol Lett"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_27_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1038","DOI":"10.1111\/1365-2435.12406","article-title":"Thermoregulatory behaviour limits local adaptation of thermal niches and confers sensitivity to climate change","volume":"29","author":"Buckley LB","year":"2015","unstructured":"LB Buckley, JC Ehrenberger, MJ Angilletta, Thermoregulatory behaviour limits local adaptation of thermal niches and confers sensitivity to climate change. Funct Ecol 29, 1038\u20131047 (2015).","journal-title":"Funct Ecol"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_28_2","volume-title":"Consumer-Resource Dynamics","author":"Murdoch W","year":"2003","unstructured":"W Murdoch, CJ Briggs, RM Nisbet Consumer-Resource Dynamics (Princeton Univ Press, Princeton, 2003)."},{"key":"e_1_3_3_29_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1515\/9780691225111","volume-title":"Insect Hormones","author":"Nijhout H","year":"1994","unstructured":"H Nijhout Insect Hormones (Princeton Univ Press, Princeton, 1994)."},{"key":"e_1_3_3_30_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1093\/oso\/9780195117028.001.0001","volume-title":"Biochemical Adaption","author":"Hochachka P","year":"2002","unstructured":"P Hochachka, G Somero Biochemical Adaption (Oxford Univ Press, Oxford, 2002)."},{"key":"e_1_3_3_31_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"189","DOI":"10.1038\/nature07448","article-title":"Using temperature to analyse temporal dynamics in the songbird motor pathway","volume":"456","author":"Long M","year":"2008","unstructured":"M Long, M Fee, Using temperature to analyse temporal dynamics in the songbird motor pathway. Nature 456, 189\u2013194 (2008).","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_32_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"201","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1570-7458.1996.tb00783.x","article-title":"Temperature influence on cohort parameters and demographic characteristics of the two cowpea coreids Clavigralla tomentosicollis and C. shadabi","volume":"78","author":"Dreyer H","year":"1996","unstructured":"H Dreyer, J Baumg\u00e4rtner, Temperature influence on cohort parameters and demographic characteristics of the two cowpea coreids Clavigralla tomentosicollis and C. shadabi. Entomol Exp Appl 78, 201\u2013213 (1996).","journal-title":"Entomol Exp Appl"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_33_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"47","DOI":"10.1079\/BER200062","article-title":"Effect of temperature and cultivar on the pea aphid, Acyrthosiphon pisum (Hemiptera: Aphididae) life history","volume":"91","author":"Morgan D","year":"2001","unstructured":"D Morgan, KFA Walters, JN Aegerter, Effect of temperature and cultivar on the pea aphid, Acyrthosiphon pisum (Hemiptera: Aphididae) life history. Bull Entomol Res 91, 47\u201352 (2001).","journal-title":"Bull Entomol Res"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_34_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1631","DOI":"10.1603\/EN09351","article-title":"Developmental times and life table statistics of Aulacorthum solani (Hemiptera: Aphididae) at six constant temperatures, with recommendations on the application of temperature-dependent development models","volume":"39","author":"Jandricic SE","year":"2010","unstructured":"SE Jandricic, SP Wraight, KC Bennett, JP Sanderson, Developmental times and life table statistics of Aulacorthum solani (Hemiptera: Aphididae) at six constant temperatures, with recommendations on the application of temperature-dependent development models. Environ Entomol 39, 1631\u20131642 (2010).","journal-title":"Environ Entomol"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_35_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"363","DOI":"10.1007\/s10526-009-9263-4","article-title":"Functional response and life history parameters of Apanteles taragamae, a larval parasitoid of Maruca vitrata","volume":"55","author":"Dannon EA","year":"2010","unstructured":"EA Dannon, M Tamo, A van Huis, M Dicke, Functional response and life history parameters of Apanteles taragamae, a larval parasitoid of Maruca vitrata. BioControl 55, 363\u2013378 (2010).","journal-title":"BioControl"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_36_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1122","DOI":"10.1111\/1365-2435.12583","article-title":"Effects of temperature and resource variation on insect population dynamics: The bordered plant bug as a case study","volume":"30","author":"Johnson CA","year":"2016","unstructured":"CA Johnson, , Effects of temperature and resource variation on insect population dynamics: The bordered plant bug as a case study. Funct Ecol 30, 1122\u20131131 (2016).","journal-title":"Funct Ecol"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_37_2","first-page":"1300","article-title":"Effects of temperature and density on the mortality and reproduction of cotton aphid Aphis gossypii","volume":"24","author":"Gao GZ","year":"2013","unstructured":"GZ Gao, , Effects of temperature and density on the mortality and reproduction of cotton aphid Aphis gossypii. Chin J Appl Ecol 24, 1300\u20131304 (2013).","journal-title":"Chin J Appl Ecol"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_38_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"387","DOI":"10.1303\/aez.2010.387","article-title":"Temperature-dependent life history of the green plant bug, Apolygus lucorum (Meyer-D\u00fcr) (Hemiptera: Miridae)","volume":"45","author":"Lu Y","year":"2010","unstructured":"Y Lu, K Wu, KAG Wyckhuys, Y Guo, Temperature-dependent life history of the green plant bug, Apolygus lucorum (Meyer-D\u00fcr) (Hemiptera: Miridae). Appl Entomol Zool 45, 387\u2013393 (2010).","journal-title":"Appl Entomol Zool"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_39_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1286","DOI":"10.1890\/0012-9658(2000)081[1286:COCPOA]2.0.CO;2","article-title":"Coexistence of competing parasitoids on a patchily distributed host: Local vs. spatial mechanisms","volume":"81","author":"Amarasekare P","year":"2000","unstructured":"P Amarasekare, Coexistence of competing parasitoids on a patchily distributed host: Local vs. spatial mechanisms. Ecology 81, 1286\u20131296 (2000).","journal-title":"Ecology"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_40_2","volume-title":"Python 3.4.4 Documentation","author":"Python Core Development Team","year":"2015","unstructured":"; Python Core Development Team Python 3.4.4 Documentation (Python Software Foundation, Beaverton, OR, 2015)."},{"key":"e_1_3_3_41_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"89","DOI":"10.1007\/978-1-4615-5973-3_4","volume-title":"Structured-Population Models in Marine, Terrestrial, and Freshwater Systems","author":"Nisbet R","year":"1997","unstructured":"R Nisbet, Delay-differential equations for structured populations. Structured-Population Models in Marine, Terrestrial, and Freshwater Systems, eds S Tuljapurkar, H Caswell (Chapman and Hall, New York), pp. 89\u2013116 (1997)."},{"key":"e_1_3_3_42_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"114","DOI":"10.1016\/0040-5809(83)90008-4","article-title":"The systematic formulation of population models for insects with dynamically varying instar duration","volume":"23","author":"Nisbet RM","year":"1983","unstructured":"RM Nisbet, W Gurney, The systematic formulation of population models for insects with dynamically varying instar duration. Theor Popul Biol 23, 114\u2013135 (1983).","journal-title":"Theor Popul Biol"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_43_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"47","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tpb.2007.09.004","article-title":"Simplifying a physiologically structured population model to a stage-structured biomass model","volume":"73","author":"deRoos A","year":"2008","unstructured":"A deRoos, T Schellekens, T van Kooten, Simplifying a physiologically structured population model to a stage-structured biomass model. Theor Popul Biol 73, 47\u201362 (2008).","journal-title":"Theor Popul Biol"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_44_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"479","DOI":"10.2307\/4567","article-title":"The systematic formulation of tractable single-species population models incorporating age structure","volume":"52","author":"Gurney W","year":"1983","unstructured":"W Gurney, R Nisbet, J Lawton, The systematic formulation of tractable single-species population models incorporating age structure. J Anim Ecol 52, 479\u2013495 (1983).","journal-title":"J Anim Ecol"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_45_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1093\/acprof:oso\/9780198570875.001.1","volume-title":"Thermal Adaption: A Theoretical and Empirical Synthesis","author":"Angilletta M","year":"2009","unstructured":"M Angilletta Thermal Adaption: A Theoretical and Empirical Synthesis (Oxford Univ Press, Oxford, 2009)."},{"key":"e_1_3_3_46_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"47","DOI":"10.1002\/jcp.1030280104","article-title":"The growth rate of E. coli in relation to temperature, quinine and coenzyme","volume":"28","author":"Johnson F","year":"1946","unstructured":"F Johnson, I Lewin, The growth rate of E. coli in relation to temperature, quinine and coenzyme. J Cell Comp Physiol 28, 47\u201375 (1946).","journal-title":"J Cell Comp Physiol"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_47_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"429","DOI":"10.1086\/381872","article-title":"Effects of body size and temperature on population growth","volume":"163","author":"Savage VM","year":"2004","unstructured":"VM Savage, JF Gillooly, JH Brown, GB West, EL Charnov, Effects of body size and temperature on population growth. Am Nat 163, 429\u2013441 (2004).","journal-title":"Am Nat"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_48_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"339","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1469-185X.2008.00046.x","article-title":"Insect thermal tolerance: What is the role of ontogeny, ageing and senescence?","volume":"8","author":"Bowler K","year":"2008","unstructured":"K Bowler, J Terblanche, Insect thermal tolerance: What is the role of ontogeny, ageing and senescence? Biol Rev 8, 339\u2013355 (2008).","journal-title":"Biol Rev"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_49_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"256","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-2435.2008.01489.x","article-title":"Relationship between the minimum and maximum temperature thresholds for development in insects","volume":"23","author":"Dixon A","year":"2009","unstructured":"A Dixon, , Relationship between the minimum and maximum temperature thresholds for development in insects. Funct Ecol 23, 256\u2013264 (2009).","journal-title":"Funct Ecol"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_50_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1744-7348.2005.04088.x","article-title":"Thermal time: Concepts and utility","volume":"146","author":"Trudgill D","year":"2005","unstructured":"D Trudgill, A Honek, N van Straalen, Thermal time: Concepts and utility. Ann Appl Biol 146, 1\u201314 (2005).","journal-title":"Ann Appl Biol"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_51_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2028","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1558-5646.1997.tb05125.x","article-title":"Evolution of thermal sensitivity of parasitization capacity in egg parasitoids","volume":"51","author":"Carri\u00e8re Y","year":"1997","unstructured":"Y Carri\u00e8re, G Boivin, Evolution of thermal sensitivity of parasitization capacity in egg parasitoids. Evolution 51, 2028\u20132032 (1997).","journal-title":"Evolution"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_52_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1676","DOI":"10.1603\/EN10015","article-title":"Temperature-dependent development and life table parameters of Octodonta nipae (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae)","volume":"39","author":"Hou Y","year":"2010","unstructured":"Y Hou, Z Weng, Temperature-dependent development and life table parameters of Octodonta nipae (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae). Environ Entomol 39, 1676\u20131684 (2010).","journal-title":"Environ Entomol"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_53_2","first-page":"666","article-title":"Influence of constant temperatures on life history parameters of the cotton aphid, Aphis gossypii, infesting cotton","volume":"36","author":"Parajulee MN","year":"2007","unstructured":"MN Parajulee, Influence of constant temperatures on life history parameters of the cotton aphid, Aphis gossypii, infesting cotton. Environ Entomol 36, 666\u2013672 (2007).","journal-title":"Environ Entomol"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_54_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"453","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1439-0418.2006.01088.x","article-title":"Effect of temperature on biology and population growth parameters of Aphis gossypii Glover (Hom., Aphididae) on greenhouse cucumber","volume":"130","author":"Zamani AA","year":"2006","unstructured":"AA Zamani, AA Talebi, Y Fathipour, V Baniameri, Effect of temperature on biology and population growth parameters of Aphis gossypii Glover (Hom., Aphididae) on greenhouse cucumber. J Appl Entomol 130, 453\u2013460 (2006).","journal-title":"J Appl Entomol"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_55_2","first-page":"79","volume-title":"Frontiers of Population Ecology","author":"Ritchie ME","year":"1996","unstructured":"ME Ritchie, Interaction of temperature and resources in population dynamics: A test of theory. Frontiers of Population Ecology, eds R Floyd, A Sheppard, P De Barro (CSIRO Publishing, Melbourne), pp. 79\u201389 (1996)."},{"key":"e_1_3_3_56_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"312","DOI":"10.1603\/EN09294","article-title":"How will species respond to climate change? Examining the effects of temperature and population density on an herbivorous insect","volume":"39","author":"Laws A","year":"2010","unstructured":"A Laws, G Belovsky, How will species respond to climate change? Examining the effects of temperature and population density on an herbivorous insect. Environ Entomol 39, 312\u2013319 (2010).","journal-title":"Environ Entomol"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_57_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2720","DOI":"10.1890\/06-1515.1","article-title":"Trade-offs, temporal variation and species coexistence in communities with intraguild predation","volume":"88","author":"Amarasekare P","year":"2007","unstructured":"P Amarasekare, Trade-offs, temporal variation and species coexistence in communities with intraguild predation. Ecology 88, 2720\u20132728 (2007).","journal-title":"Ecology"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_58_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"713","DOI":"10.1046\/j.1365-2656.2003.00744.x","article-title":"Diversity-stability relationships in multi-trophic systems: An empirical exploration","volume":"72","author":"Amarasekare P","year":"2003","unstructured":"P Amarasekare, Diversity-stability relationships in multi-trophic systems: An empirical exploration. J Anim Ecol 72, 713\u2013724 (2003).","journal-title":"J Anim Ecol"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_59_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"201","DOI":"10.1046\/j.1365-2656.2000.00378.x","article-title":"Spatial dynamics in a host-multiparasitoid community","volume":"69","author":"Amarasekare P","year":"2000","unstructured":"P Amarasekare, Spatial dynamics in a host-multiparasitoid community. J Anim Ecol 69, 201\u2013213 (2000).","journal-title":"J Anim Ecol"},{"key":"e_1_3_3_60_2","volume-title":"R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing","author":"R Core Team","year":"2016","unstructured":"; R Core Team R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing (R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, 2016)."}],"container-title":["Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"http:\/\/www.pnas.org\/syndication\/doi\/10.1073\/pnas.1711221114","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"syndication"},{"URL":"https:\/\/pnas.org\/doi\/pdf\/10.1073\/pnas.1711221114","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2024,6,28]],"date-time":"2024-06-28T23:10:36Z","timestamp":1719616236000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/pnas.org\/doi\/full\/10.1073\/pnas.1711221114"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2017,11,27]]},"references-count":60,"journal-issue":{"issue":"50","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2017,12,12]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1073\/pnas.1711221114"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1073\/pnas.1711221114","relation":{},"ISSN":["0027-8424","1091-6490"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0027-8424","type":"print"},{"value":"1091-6490","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2017,11,27]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2017-11-27","order":2,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}]}}