{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,30]],"date-time":"2026-10-30T00:30:47Z","timestamp":1793320247250,"version":"4.5.0"},"reference-count":69,"publisher":"National Academy of Sciences","issue":"16","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2019,4,1]],"date-time":"2019-04-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1554076800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc-nd\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000001","name":"National Science Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["DBI-1052875"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["DBI-1052875"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000001","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000001","name":"National Science Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["EAGER ISN 1837698"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["EAGER ISN 1837698"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000001","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.pnas.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2019,4,16]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>Counterdrug interdiction efforts designed to seize or disrupt cocaine shipments between South American source zones and US markets remain a core US \u201csupply side\u201d drug policy and national security strategy. However, despite a long history of US-led interdiction efforts in the Western Hemisphere, cocaine movements to the United States through Central America, or \u201cnarco-trafficking,\u201d continue to rise. Here, we developed a spatially explicit agent-based model (ABM), called \u201cNarcoLogic,\u201d of narco-trafficker operational decision making in response to interdiction forces to investigate the root causes of interdiction ineffectiveness across space and time. The central premise tested was that spatial proliferation and resiliency of narco-trafficking are not a consequence of ineffective interdiction, but rather part and natural consequence of interdiction itself. Model development relied on multiple theoretical perspectives, empirical studies, media reports, and the authors\u2019 own years of field research in the region. Parameterization and validation used the best available, authoritative data source for illicit cocaine flows. Despite inherently biased, unreliable, and\/or incomplete data of a clandestine phenomenon, the model compellingly reproduced the \u201ccat-and-mouse\u201d dynamic between narco-traffickers and interdiction forces others have qualitatively described. The model produced qualitatively accurate and quantitatively realistic spatial and temporal patterns of cocaine trafficking in response to interdiction events. The NarcoLogic model offers a much-needed, evidence-based tool for the robust assessment of different drug policy scenarios, and their likely impact on trafficker behavior and the many collateral damages associated with the militarized war on drugs.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1812459116","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2019,4,1]],"date-time":"2019-04-01T20:25:44Z","timestamp":1554150344000},"page":"7784-7792","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1073\/pnas.cm10313","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":88,"title":["Modeling cocaine traffickers and counterdrug interdiction forces as a complex adaptive system"],"prefix":"10.1073","volume":"116","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0971-0207","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Nicholas R.","family":"Magliocca","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Geography, University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL 35487;"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Kendra","family":"McSweeney","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Geography, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210;"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Steven E.","family":"Sesnie","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Biological Sciences, US Fish and Wildlife Service, Albuquerque, NM 87102;"},{"name":"School of Earth Sciences and Environmental Sustainability, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ 86011;"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3026-6435","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Elizabeth","family":"Tellman","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85281;"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jennifer A.","family":"Devine","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Geography, Texas State University, San Marcos, TX 78666;"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Erik A.","family":"Nielsen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Earth Sciences and Environmental Sustainability, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ 86011;"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Zoe","family":"Pearson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Politics, Public Affairs, and International Studies, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY 82071;"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"David J.","family":"Wrathall","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Geography, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"341","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2019,4]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_4_1_2","volume-title":"An Industrial Geography of Cocaine","author":"Allen CM","year":"2005","unstructured":"CM Allen An Industrial Geography of Cocaine (Routledge, New York, 2005)."},{"key":"e_1_3_4_2_2","first-page":"99","article-title":"The evolution of drug trafficking and organized crime in Latin America","volume":"71","author":"Bagley B","year":"2013","unstructured":"B Bagley, The evolution of drug trafficking and organized crime in Latin America. 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