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One factor that can help explain the lack of water-quality response is remobilization of accumulated legacy (historical) P within the terrestrial-aquatic continuum, which can obscure the beneficial impacts of current conservation efforts. We examined how contemporary river P trends (between 1992 and 2012) responded to estimated changes in contemporary agricultural P balances [(fertilizer + manure inputs)\u2014crop uptake and harvest removal] for 143 watersheds in the conterminous United States, while also developing a proxy estimate of legacy P contribution, which refers to anthropogenic P inputs before 1992. We concluded that legacy sources contributed to river export in 49 watersheds because mean contemporary river P export exceeded mean contemporary agricultural P balances. For the other 94 watersheds, agricultural P balances exceeded river P export, and our proxy estimate of legacy P was inconclusive. If legacy contributions occurred in these locations, they were likely small and dwarfed by contemporary P sources. Our continental-scale P mass balance results indicated that improved incentives and strategies are needed to promote the adoption of nutrient-conserving practices and reduce widespread contemporary P surpluses. However, a P surplus reduction is only 1 component of an effective nutrient plan as we found agricultural balances decreased in 91 watersheds with no consistent water-quality improvements, and balances increased in 52 watersheds with no consistent water-quality degradation.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1903226116","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2019,9,23]],"date-time":"2019-09-23T20:35:59Z","timestamp":1569270959000},"page":"20562-20567","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1073\/pnas.cm10313","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":176,"title":["Variable impacts of contemporary versus legacy agricultural phosphorus on US river water quality"],"prefix":"10.1073","volume":"116","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5876-4922","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Sarah M.","family":"Stackpoole","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"US Geological Survey, Water Mission Area, Denver, CO 80225;"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5375-0196","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Edward G.","family":"Stets","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"US Geological Survey, Water Mission Area, Boulder, CO 80303"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2832-6662","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Lori A.","family":"Sprague","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"US Geological Survey, Water Mission Area, Denver, CO 80225;"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"341","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2019,9,23]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_4_1_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"11039","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.0806112105","article-title":"Phosphorus control is critical to mitigating eutrophication","volume":"105","author":"Carpenter S. 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